UTEP vs Western Kentucky Predictions, Picks, and Odds: Another High-Scoring Matchup In Store

Two teams with long March Madness odds droughts will look to grab an automatic bid into March Madness on Saturday as the Texas-El Paso Miners take on the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers in the Conference USA Tournament final.

Western Kentucky (21-11) hasn’t been in the NCAA Tournament since the 2012-2013 season. UTEP (18-15) has won five straight, and last advanced to the Big Dance in 2010. 

While these two teams split their regular season contests, the games had something in common. We’ll break down what that means for tonight’s game in our free college basketball picks and predictions for UTEP vs. Western Kentucky on Saturday, March 16.

UTEP vs Western Kentucky best odds

UTEP vs Western Kentucky picks and predictions

Western Kentucky knows how to score. It’s not that the Hilltoppers have a particularly talented or efficient offense: they don’t shoot well from three-point range, and their 46.8% shooting percentage is fine, but not outstanding. But this team plays at perhaps the fastest pace of anyone in the country, with KenPom rating Western Kentucky as having the single fastest adjusted tempo in the nation.

Predictably, that results in a fair number of points. The Hilltoppers average 80.7 points per game, and though they play decent defense given the number of possessions they allow, opponents are averaging 74.2 in response. Western Kentucky has even kept up this pace down the stretch, hitting the Over in four of its last five games.

UTEP doesn’t play quite as quickly, though they tend to run more than most teams (a trend that’s popular in Conference USA). The Miners also play strong defensively but have one major problem: a lack of reliable scoring options. 

UTEP is shooting a dismal 31.9% from deep and 45.2% overall. Tae Hardy leads the team with 15.1 ppg, while no other Miner is averaging as many as 11 for the season. Still, the offense's fast pace has been enough to allow this team to average 72.7 points on the year.

What happens when these teams play each other? They fly up and down the court, exchanging baskets at a rapid pace. In their first meeting this season, UTEP scored a 93-87 win at home for a total score of 180 points. Things only calmed down slightly in February's rematch where the Hilltoppers took their own 90-80 victory at home.

Looking back to last year, these teams hit the Over in all three of their meetings. That means a streak of five straight games in which these squads have gone above the total.

Still, sportsbooks aren’t buying even though all the numbers show this is exactly the kind of game we should expect from two high-tempo teams. The totals for the first two games between them were set at 149 and 152.5. Now, for the rematch with a conference title on the line, the books have actually lowered the total.

I can’t guarantee that these teams will combine for 170+ points again, but they don’t have to get anywhere near that number to beat the total tonight. I’m taking the Over in this matchup, as these teams should continue to play the same brand of basketball we’ve seen all season long.

My best bet: Over 145 (-108 at DraftKings)

UTEP vs Western Kentucky same-game parlay

Over 145

Western Kentucky moneyline

Don McHenry Over 12.5 points

+330 at DraftKings

I like this game to be a high-scoring affair, and that plays right into Western Kentucky’s hands. The Hilltoppers love to run the court and are more comfortable in a shootout than the Miners are. That’s why my same-game parlay starts by combining the Over with a bet on Western Kentucky on the moneyline.

To round out our parlay, I’ll take Western Kentucky junior guard Don McHenry to hit the Over on his scoring total of 12.5 points. McHenry is averaging 14.9 points this year and has scored at least 13 points in 21 of his 32 games.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

UTEP vs Western Kentucky spread and Over/Under analysis

Western Kentucky opened as a 3.5-point favorite. That number has come down slightly, with books split between offering the Hilltoppers as a 2.5 or three-point favorite. You can get some big discounts on UTEP at some books, with -102 available on the Miners +2.5. 

UTEP has struggled against the spread, putting up a 12-17-1 ATS mark. The Hilltoppers have been good for bettors, going 18-11 ATS on the season.

Most of the public seems to be on Western Kentucky, and I’m inclined to agree that it will win. Despite losing its last four regular season games, Western Kentucky was a better team all season, and the Hilltoppers have won eight of the last nine matchups. While I think a straight moneyline play is safer, I’m leaning toward Western Kentucky on the spread.

The total opened at a flat 145 points. Some books have stayed at that line, while a few have added a hook and moved the Over/Under to 145.5. There are some good deals available on the Over, including -105 at 145.5 or -108 at the original 145 total. 

Despite their up-tempo styles of play, both teams have played more towards the Under this year. So far, the Under has an 18-12 advantage when UTEP plays this season and a slight 15-14 edge in Western Kentucky’s games.

That said, these teams have come nowhere near hitting an Under when they’ve played each other over the last two seasons. This is purely down to style this year, as both teams like to push the pace. When two teams like that play each other, it means plenty of transition points, easy buckets, foul line opportunities, and endless possessions where there are opportunities to score. With no significant injuries on either side, I can’t justify a total this low, even in a big game. I’m taking the Over.

UTEP vs Western Kentucky betting trend to know

The Over is 5-0 in the last five meetings between UTEP and Western Kentucky. Find more college basketball betting trends for UTEP vs. Western Kentucky.

UTEP vs Western Kentucky game info

UTEP vs Western Kentucky key injuries

Stay updated with the latest picks, odds, and news! Tap the to add us to your favorites on Google News to never miss a story.

Pages related to this topic