The Texas Rangers snuck past the upstart Cincinnati Reds Friday to open their three-game series with a 2-1 victory.
Rangers righty Michael Lorenzen takes the hill today as the MLB odds favorite while fire balling righty Hunter Greene is tasked with ending Cincinnati’s two-game losing streak.
Can the Reds upset the Rangers today? Join me as I break this one down with free MLB picks and Reds vs Rangers predictions for April 27.
Reds vs Rangers prediction
My best bet
Corey Seager Over 1.5 total bases (-105 at DraftKings)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
Texas Rangers shortstop Corey Seager is one of the best fastball hitters in baseball, but the All-Star shortstop has struggled to find his swing thus far.
Seager still has the great eye — he boasts the lowest strikeout and highest walk rate against righties this season but overall is hitting only .247 with one bomb and six RBI across 93 at-bats.
The Rangers slugger had been hitless in his last five games until notching a single in Friday night's 2-1 win over the Cincinnati Reds. He has an excellent chance to improve on his early-season funk today against the type of pitcher he loves to face — a hard-throwing righty with command issues against left-handed hitters.
Reds starter Hunter Greene strikes out nearly a dozen with 3.58 walks per nine but has been plagued by command issues throughout his career that magnify when facing lefties. He issues a tick over five walks per nine against left-handed lumber — as a result, lefties have cracked a pair of bombs with a .346 wOBA against the flame-throwing righty this season.
Finally, Seager has fared better against right-handed pitching primarily because he has a terrific eye at the plate and crushes fastballs. Greene loves to throw the heater — he hurls it 51% of the time, but hitters boast a 50% hard-hit rate on that pitch. Seager has a 50% hard-hit rate on four-seam fastballs, and he’ll be all over Greene’s heater today. Look for the Texas slugger to come out swinging early and clear 1.5 total bases.
Reds vs Rangers same-game parlay (SGP)
Corey Seager 2+ total bases
Elly De La Cruz 1+ stolen bases
Evan Carter 1+ total bases
I expect Seager to have a strong day at the plate, but Cincinnati speedster Elly De La Cruz has been money for the Reds.
The secret to his success is simple — he’s reached base safely in nine of his past 10 and swiped home Friday as part of a two-bases-stolen night. Additionally, De La Cruz boasts a .423 on-base percentage with six swipes against righties and at least one stolen base in four of his past five games.
Rangers OF Evan Carter has at least one total base in four of his last six. He also loves hitting four-seam fastballs and sliders. Carter offers a 36.84% hard-hit rate on the four-seamer, which improves to 57.1% against sliders. Those are Greene’s best two pitches, and I expect Carter to record at least one hit today.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Reds vs Rangers odds
Reds vs Rangers live odds
Reds vs Rangers opening odds
- Run line: Cincinnati +1.5 (-185) | Texas -1.5 (+154)
- Moneyline: Cincinnati +110 | Texas -130
- Over/Under: Over 9 (-102) | Under 9 (-118)
Reds vs Rangers spread and Over/Under analysis
- We’ve seen some line movement both ways — at the time of this writing, Cincinnati is trading from +105 to +110, while Rangers markets report odds from -125 to -134 across the US markets.
- Over markets opened 9.0 runs with odds ranging from +100 to -105 across the boards. Under markets are hanging odds from -115 to -122 on 9.0 runs.
- 71% of the money at DraftKings is on Texas to win this game.
Reds vs Rangers trend
Corey Seager has 23 total bases in 79 plate appearances against righties this season. Find more MLB betting trends for Reds vs. Rangers
Reds vs Rangers game info
| Location: | Globe Life Field, Arlington, TX |
| Date: | Saturday, 4-27-2024 |
| First pitch: | 4:05 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FOX |
| Reds starting pitcher: | Hunter Greene (0-1, 4.36 ERA) |
| Rangers starting pitcher: | Michael Lorenzen (2-0, 2.46 ERA) |
Reds vs Rangers latest injuries
Reds vs Rangers weather
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Covers may receive advertising commissions for visits to a sportsbook or betting site.
