The Philadelphia Phillies (17-10) and San Diego Padres (14-15) square off for Game 2 of their weekend series tonight. It’s expected to be a pitcher’s duel as both Ranger Suarez and Dylan Cease have been among the most effective starters this season.
Looking at MLB odds, the Padres are -115 on the moneyline and the total resides at 7.5. I’m buying both starting pitchers’ recent performances with my best bet as I lay out my full MLB picks and Phillies vs. Padres predictions on Saturday, April 27.
Phillies vs Padres prediction
My best bet
First five innings Under 4 (-115 at BetMGM)
My analysis
Philadelphia Phillies left-hander Ranger Suarez has thrown 25 straight scoreless innings and has a pristine line with a 1.36 ERA, 1.88 xERA, and 2.52 FIP. Meanwhile, Dylan Cease has been nearly as effective in his first year with the San Diego Padres, boasting a 1.82 ERA, 2.93 xERA, and 2.31 FIP.
They get it done in vastly different ways. Cease has a terrific array of deadly offerings, ranking third among starters in Stuff+ (123). Suarez excels with his command, tying for fifth among starts in Location+. The lefty also limits hard contact, posting a superb 2.5% barrel rate this year and a 5.8% career average.
Despite having a lot of known names in the lineup, the Phillies haven’t crushed right-handed pitching this year, sporting just a 98 wRC+ and a .316 wOBA. The Padres have similarly been middle of the road against lefties, posting a 102 wRC+ and a .315 wOBA.
Philadelphia is 1-4 O/U in games that Suarez starts, including a run of four straight Unders. As for the Padres, they’ve now gone four straight games of limiting opponents to three runs or fewer when Cease is on the bump.
San Diego has been on a torrid stretch to the Under at Petco, hitting the Under in 39 of its last 65 games. I like that stretch to continue in what is forecasted as a pitching duel on Saturday.
I’m opting to play the first five innings instead of the full game total considering both bullpens have question marks. Philadelphia’s relief options have been a mess with a league-worst 5.78 ERA and a 1.53 WHIP, while San Diego’s bullpen is taxed after throwing 5 1/3 innings in each of the last two games.
The first five innings total is a low one set at 4, but it’s that way for a reason. Cease has been among the best pitchers in the sport when he’s at the peak of his powers, and that appears to be the case through 29 2/3 innings of dominance in 2024. All the while, Suarez is on a heater the likes of which can’t be matched.
Phillies vs Padres same-game parlay (SGP)
First five innings Under 4
Dylan Cease Over 7.5 strikeouts
Castellanos Under 0.5 runs / Profar Under 0.5 runs & Under 0.5 TB
Cease is a punchout artist with a 31.3% K-rate, and he’s utilizing his elite mix of pitches beautifully lately. I’m nearly always on board with a strikeout prop Over play while he’s on top of his game, and it correlates well with my best bet and the Nick Castellanos Under.
As for Jurickson Profar, he’s off to a hot start (.857) but has never posted an OPS above .800 in his long career, so I’m selling high and banking on regression in a tough matchup.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Phillies vs Padres odds
Phillies vs Padres live odds
Phillies vs Padres opening odds
- Run line: Philadelphia -1.5 (+145) | San Diego +1.5 (-170)
- Moneyline: Philadelphia -110 | San Diego -110
- Over/Under: Over 7 (-130) | Under 7 (+100)
Phillies vs Padres spread and Over/Under analysis
- This series has been dominated by the Phillies. They’ve won six of the last seven meetings and are 8-2 in the last 10.
- The Phillies are 5-0 in games that Suarez starts while the Padres are 3-2 when Cease takes the bump.
- The Phillies have covered the F5 innings run line in 10 of their last 14 games.
Phillies vs Padres trend
The Phillies are 0-4 O/U in Ranger Suarez’s last four starts. Find more MLB betting trends for Phillies vs. Padres
Phillies vs Padres game info
| Location: | PETCO Park, San Diego, CA |
| Date: | Saturday, 4-27-2024 |
| First pitch: | 8:40 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NBCSP, SDPA |
| Phillies starting pitcher: | Ranger Suarez (3-0, 1.73 ERA) |
| Padres starting pitcher: | Dylan Cease (2-1, 1.99 ERA) |
Phillies vs Padres latest injuries
Phillies vs Padres weather
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