Saturday’s Southwestern Athletic Conference championship clash features a Texas Southern Tigers program seeking its fourth consecutive conference championship.
Southern is a slight college basketball odds favorite when they meet a hungry Grambling State Tigers side looking for its first-ever SWAC Tournament title after winning the conference's regular season title.
With March Madness odds on the board, can Texas Southern make it a four-peat? Join me as I examine this SWAC Tournament finals matchup with free college basketball picks for Texas Southern and Grambling State on Saturday, March 16.
Texas Southern vs Grambling State best odds
Texas Southern vs Grambling State picks and predictions
The Grambling State Tigers have had their best season since 1989, which was the last time they hoisted a SWAC regular-season title. They have proved the pundits wrong and now face the preseason favorite to win it all.
The Texas Southern Tigers were favorites to win the conference title, but two difficult midseason losses left them in a tough spot, and they finished third in the conference standings.
One of those losses was to this Grambling program — they got down by 21 and failed to hold serve at home in the three-point home loss that probably cost them a regular season title.
Texas Southern is a slight favorite to win this neutral-court game, but it might be without leading scorer P.J. Henry. The senior guard tweaked his ankle in the second half of the SWAC semi with Alabama A&M and failed to return.
Not having Henry in the lineup will hurt Southern on both ends of the floor. He leads his club in scoring and swipes, and a Texas Southern defense relying on 14.2 points per tilt from turnovers might not get that many if Henry doesn’t dress.
Southern could be in some trouble without those 14.2 points per game. Texas Southern boasts one of the top field goal percentages in the conference but is mediocre from downtown. Without the treys and possibly Henry, scoring could become difficult, and their opponents in Black and Gold possess good shooting defense from inside and outside the arc.
That means Texas Southern must rely on its defense to win. Thankfully, Grambling has difficulties scoring. It hasn't reached its 67 points-per-game average in either tourney tilt and likely won’t against the conference's best-scoring defense.
Finally, the pressure of playing in a championship tilt will be enormous for both programs. Not only that but playing three games on three consecutive nights is less than ideal, and neither program has much bench depth. Seven of their previous eight meetings have ended Under the total, and the way these defenses have played this week, tonight’s contest will also hit the Under.
My best bet: Under 127.5 (-110 at DraftKings)
Texas Southern vs Grambling State same-game parlay
Under 127.5
Grambling State moneyline
Grambling has played very well recently against Texas Southern. It's won three of the previous five meetings, with the last three clashes ending in margins of three points or fewer.
Saturday night’s tilt shouldn’t be any different, and with the status of Southern’s best player in doubt, even money is a good price to pay for a dog I believe will hunt.
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Texas Southern vs Grambling State spread and Over/Under analysis
Texas Southern is looking for its fourth consecutive SWAC Championship, but it may have to win this one without leading scorer P.J. Henry. That might be why Southern opened as low as a -1 (-110) favorite and as high as -1.5 (-115) at FanDuel.
Texas Southern is now at least -2.5 (-110) favorite across all the US sportsbooks and it goes as high as -3.5, and Southern is the three-time defending tourney champ.
My model has Grambling State as a -1-point favorite with Henry on the floor for Texas Southern. He failed to return on Friday night in a close, must-win game, and it isn’t a stretch to believe he’ll be less than 100%, which will be problematic against Grambling.
The total is a different matter. The 127.5 opening number is a big one for this game and has risen to 128.5 at all the major US shops. Neither team consistently scores, and the respective stop units are probably better than the scoring ones. Add in the jitters and pressure of playing in a championship game, poor shooting, and slow tempo, the Under was the only way to go.
Texas Southern vs Grambling State betting trend to know
The Under is 8-1-0 over their nine previous meetings. Find more college basketball betting trends for Texas Southern vs. Grambling State.
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Texas Southern vs Grambling State game info
| Location: | Bartow Arena, Birmingham, AL |
| Date: | Saturday, March 16, 2024 |
| Tip-off: | 9:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPNU |
Texas Southern vs Grambling State key injuries
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