The Philadelphia Phillies (16-10) and San Diego Padres (14-14) begin a three-game weekend series with Game 1 on Friday night at Petco Park.
It’s an intriguing pitching duel between Aaron Nola and Joe Musgrove. According to MLB odds, this one is lined as a pick ‘em, while the total resides at 7.5.
See which club I’m investing in for Game 1 with my MLB picks and Phillies vs. Padres predictions on Friday, April 26.
Phillies vs Padres prediction
My best bet
Padres moneyline (-104 at FanDuel)
My analysis
Aaron Nola and Joe Musgrove have been two of the best right-handed starters over the last handful of seasons. There are some similarities in that both have remained relatively healthy — especially by the standards of today’s day and age — while routinely finishing with effective ERAs below 4.00.
The surface-level numbers will tell you that Nola has been the better pitcher this year, as his 3.16 ERA is well below Musgrove’s bloated 5.74 ERA and gruesome 6.73 ERA. That being said, Big Joe has a long track record of success, and we shouldn’t throw him in the trash after a few bad outings. After all, his ERA and xERA have both finished below 3.90 in four straight seasons.
He still possesses good swing-and-miss stuff despite the K numbers not yet accounting for it. His 11.4% swinging strike rate is on par with his 11.7% career average, whereas Nola’s is down to 9.1% — well below his 11.6% career number. That’s despite Nola having faced a very weak level of competition to start the year, and the San Diego Padres will be by far his biggest test to date.
The Philadelphia Phillies may have more big names in their lineup, but it’s the Padres who have the better numbers through the first month. That’s especially true against right-handed pitching — San Diego ranks fifth in wRC+ (115) and wOBA (.334), while Philadelphia checks in at 21st in wRC+ (92) and 17th in wOBA (.307).
According to Stuff+, Musgrove (115) ranks within the Top 10 of starting pitchers, whereas Nola (98) lags behind at 39th. Big Joe’s bloated ERA isn’t due to a dropoff in his stuff, and Nola’s effective ERA seems to be partially due to good fortune.
When it comes time for the managers to call on the bullpen, the Padres will hold the advantage, as their 4.08 ERA in relief is about league averages, while the Phillies have an ugly 5.85 ERA and 1.55 WHIP. Of the seven Philadelphia relief pitchers who have thrown eight or more innings, four have an ERA above 5.50.
Both teams are coming off a four-game road series. The Phillies split with the Cincinnati Reds, while the Padres split with the Colorado Rockies. While the Phillies must continue their road trek a bit longer, the Padres get to return home.
I like the Padres on the moneyline, as they’ve won eight of Musgrove’s last 10 starts at Petco, their lineup has been better against righties, they have the better bullpen, and they’re returning home.
Phillies vs Padres same-game parlay (SGP)
Padres moneyline
Under 8.5
Jake Cronenworth 2+ total bases
The Phillies have trended to the Under this season at 10-15 O/U, and we have two quality starting pitchers on the mound, so I lean toward the Under.
I don’t expect a blow-up spot from the Padres lineup considering the matchup, but they may find some cracks in Nola’s armor considering he doesn’t throw hard (ninth percentile fastball velocity) and isn’t making batters miss (19th percentile whiff rate). Jake Cronenworth has recorded a hit in five of his last seven games in a rebound season after last year’s disappointing campaign.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Phillies vs Padres odds
Phillies vs Padres live odds
Phillies vs Padres opening odds
- Run line: Philadelphia -1.5 (+150) | San Diego -1.5 (-180)
- Moneyline: Philadelphia -115 | San Diego -105
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 (-110) | Under 7.5 (-110)
Phillies vs Padres spread and Over/Under analysis
- All four of Nola’s starts this season have come against teams ranked in the Bottom 10 of wRC+ (Chicago White Sox, Colorado Rockies, St. Louis Cardinals, Washington Nationals).
- San Diego has hit the run line in 31 of its last 56 home games.
- San Diego has gone Under the total in 39 of its last 65 home games.
- San Diego has only gone Over the total in 55 of its last 136 games overall.
Phillies vs Padres trend
The Padres are 8-2 in Musgrove’s last 10 starts at home. Find more MLB betting trends for Phillies vs. Padres
Phillies vs Padres game info
| Location: | Petco Park, San Diego, CA |
| Date: | Friday, 4-26-2024 |
| First pitch: | 9:40 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NBC Sports Philadelphia, San Diego Padres |
| Phillies starting pitcher: | Aaron Nola (3-1, 3.16 ERA) |
| Padres starting pitcher: | Joe Musgrove (3-2, 5.74 ERA) |
Phillies vs Padres latest injuries
Phillies vs Padres weather
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