The Texas A&M Aggies are on the March Madness odds bubble and in a “must-win” situation against a Mississippi Rebels program with 20 victories and a 14-3 home record this season.
The college basketball odds have the Aggies as a short underdog. They enter this matchup riding a two-game winning streak. The Rebels have dropped four of their last five and hope to end a one-game losing skid with a Senior Day victory.
Can the Rebels spoil the Aggies' slim at-large bid hopes? Join me as I examine this SEC matchup with free college basketball picks for Texas A&M vs. Mississippi on Saturday, March 9.
Texas A&M vs Mississippi best odds
Texas A&M vs Mississippi picks and predictions
The Texas A&M Aggies suffered through a five-game conference losing streak that hurt their NCAA Tournament at-large bid and any SEC regular season championship hopes they may have entertained.
But they have an excellent opportunity on Saturday to impress the committee with a decisive road victory over the Mississippi Rebels.
The Aggies are also motivated to avenge an earlier home loss to the Rebels. Like much of the season, Texas A&M was their own worst enemy; they blew a nine-point lead, shot horribly from everywhere, were torched for 41% from downtown, and didn’t get the job done in that loss to Mississippi.
It won’t be easy for Texas A&M to show up in Oxford and snag a must-win game on the road. Mississippi is 14-3 in its own barn, but it’s lost seven of its previous nine and three of its last four at Sandy and John Black Pavilion, yet somehow, they still managed to win 20 games.
In a game as close as this one is expected to be, the team that owns both ends of the glass, takes care of the ball, and — most importantly — makes its free throws, usually win these types of games. That program is the Aggies.
Texas A&M leads the conference in caroms on both ends of the floor — they mashed Mississippi on the boards 42-34 and edged the Rebels 18-13 on the offensive glass. Mississippi is an average offensive rebounding side, but the Aggies will eat on the offensive window against the 13th-worst rebounding team in the SEC.
The Aggies also boast the conference's top turnover percentage and their 10.2 turnovers per game on the road rank 18th nationally. Mississippi does a solid job of annoying opponents' perimeter players, and they worked the Aggies for 13 points from 10 miscues their last time out. Texas A&M didn’t get back on defense well that night, which was as aberration as their 10.3 season average will attest to.
Finally, road underdogs must make free throws. Texas A&M is a decent free-throw shooting team, averaging 20.9 attempts per tilt from the charity stripe on the road. They make 72.5% of their free-throw attempts on the road and meet a Mississippi stop unit allowing 15.4 free-throw attempts per game. That will be enough for the Aggies to get the job done, which is the third and final reason why they will win this game.
My best bet: Texas A&M moneyline (+105 at DraftKings)
Texas A&M vs Mississippi same-game parlay
Texas A&M moneyline
Over 144.5
Mississippi team total Over 72.5
This three-leg same-game parlay card will be a banger and pays $525 for a $100 bet, which is good odds for this card. It also correlates well with my best bet, and here’s how.
Both programs' Over/Under records are predominantly for the Over; the Aggies are 17-13-0 for the Over and 6-5-0 for the Over as the visitors. Mississippi games are 16-14-0 to the Over and 9-8-0 to the Over in their barn.
Mississippi scoring Over their team total is a good play here; the Rebels average 77.6 per game at home and meet an Aggies stop unit surrendering nearly 73 points per away clash. Mississippi will be hungry to win on Senior Day, and they’ll need to score that many just for a chance to win.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Texas A&M vs Mississippi spread and Over/Under analysis
We saw money come in hard on Texas A&M +1.5, temporarily driving the number to a pick ‘em. Mississippi money came in fast and hard and brought us back to where we began: -1.5 (-110) across the U.S. betting landscape.
The Aggies are 5-6-0 ATS as the away team, 2-3-0 ATS over the past five away tilts, and hard to trust. The Rebels are 8-9-0 ATS as the home team but 1-4-0 ATS over their previous five in their gym.
The total on all the major U.S. boards for the Over is 144.5, with DraftKings offering the best odds (-108). Two shops did open 145.5, but that was bet down quickly to join the rest of the shops. Both teams are strong Over teams, but the Aggies are 6-5-0 as the away team meets a 9-8-0 to the Over home team.
Texas A&M vs Mississippi betting trend to know
The Rebels are 0-5 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a winning straight-up record. Find more college basketball betting trends for Texas A&M vs. Mississippi.
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Texas A&M vs Mississippi game info
| Location: | Sandy and John Black Pavilion, Oxford, MS |
| Date: | Saturday, March 9, 2024 |
| Tip-off: | 2:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | CBS |
Texas A&M vs Mississippi key injuries
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