Wagner vs Howard Predictions, Picks, and Odds: March Madness Action Kicks Off in Dayton

March Madness starts off this evening with a First Four game between two No. 16 seeds — the Wagner Seahawks and the Howard Bison — in Dayton. 

Wagner is a surprise dancer after winning three straight games as an underdog of at least six points in the NEC Tournament. Howard marched to the MEAC title game as a No. 4 seed in the conference tournament and is red hot with wins in nine of its last 11 games.

The winner will play the No. 1-seed North Carolina Tar Heels on Thursday. According to the college basketball odds, the Bison are 3-point favorites and the total has been set at 128.

Read our Wagner vs. Howard preview below to find out where the best college basketball picks lie and be sure to check out our March Madness picks page and March Madness odds for more.

Wagner vs Howard best odds

Wagner vs Howard picks and predictions

The Wagner Seahawks are 31-28 in Donald Copeland's two-year tenure. They were a surprise winner of the NEC Tournament after finishing with a losing record in league play, and here they are dancing. Guard Melvin Council Jr. leads the way with 14.6 ppg while fellow guard Tahron Allen is the only double-digit scorer at 10.8 ppg.  

They’ll face off as 3-point underdogs to the Howard Bison. It’s the fifth year of the Kenneth Blakeney era and the second straight year they’ve gone dancing. Blakeney’s first season resulted in a 4-29 record but he’s since completed the rebuild and finished with three straight winning seasons. 

The Bison are led by bruising guard Bryce Harris’ 16.6 points and 7.6 rebounds per game. Two experienced transfers also average double figures — former Maryland man Marcus Dockery (13.7) and eighth-year (yes, eighth!) forward Seth Towns (14.2). 

These are the two lowest-rated teams on KenPom (Howard is 276th; Wagner is 293rd), so they’re in the play-in for a reason. A Wagner win would mark its fourth straight outright upset whereas a Howard win would make it 10 victories in its last 12 games. 

This is a game of contrasting styles. Howard is an offense-first team, scoring 75.1 ppg but allowing 74.4 ppg while ranking a measly 334th in adjusted defensive efficiency per KenPom.

Wagner averages 63.5 ppg offensively and 62.1 ppg defensively. The Seahawks slow the game down to a crawl (361st in adjusted tempo) and are miserably inefficient with the ball, ranking 334th in adjusted offensive efficiency. 

 This is a tough scheduling spot for the Bison, who are playing their fourth game in five days. That’s a stark contrast to the Seahawks, who will be playing just their second game in 10 days. With Howard running a seven-man rotation, it’ll be a tough ask for the Bison to pull through. 

That being said, I think the situational factors are creating some value with Blakeney’s squad as this is clearly the better team. The performance of both teams in the non-conference is telling. Howard lost by just three to Georgia Tech, by six to a 20-win Bryant team, and in overtime to Cincinnati and Yale. Wagner, meanwhile, was blown out by Seton Hall (21 points) and Providence (34 points) in its only two difficult tests. 

Wagner’s defense may have some decent numbers, but it hasn’t been tested. The Seahawks’ strength of opposing offenses ranks just 354th, per Kenpom. They haven't played capable shooting teams and have been happy to let teams fly away from downtown, ranking 312th in 3-point attempt rate defensively (Haslametrics).

Howard is a different test entirely — the Bison rank 20th in 3-point shooting (37.4%) led by Dockery (2.7 made threes per game on 41.2%) and Towns (2.1 made threes per game on 34%). 

Meanwhile, Howard’s defense has been dreadful despite facing a favorable schedule (349th in strength of opposing offenses faced). They’ve been routinely beaten anyway, holding just four opponents below 65 points all year long. Wagner may not have much of an offense, but do you need one to score points against the Bison?

My best bet: Over 128 (-108 at DraftKings)

Wagner vs Howard same-game parlay

Over 128

Marcus Dockery Over 2.5 made threes

+280 at DraftKings

Wagner is happy to let teams chuck from behind the arc as 41% of opposing teams’ field goal attempts come from beyond the arc.

The Seahawks have managed to hold teams to just 29.5% on those looks, but is that a sustainable number? Some of that is due to good defense, but some of it is also due to shooting variance and facing a lot of poor-shooting, defensive-minded teams. 

Dockery is always happy to let fly, hoisting 6.6 threes per game and knocking down 2.7 of them. He should be relied upon to open up this Wagner defense and has canned 3+ in 19 games this season. The plus money on that play is too wide. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Wagner vs Howard spread and Over/Under analysis

Howard opened at -3.5, was quickly bet down to -2.5, but has since risen back to -3 across most books. There’s already been some roller coaster movement, making this line a difficult one to project going forward. Track any further changes using our college basketball line movement tool. 

There are reasons to back Wager: Howard is just 12-19-1 ATS this year, favorites are 12-17-1 ATS in the First Four, and the Seahawks have a strong rest advantage. 

If you like Howard, it’s because the Bison faces a way more difficult test in the non-conference and mostly fared better, have slightly better analytics, have an experience edge, and are red hot with nine wins in their last 11 games. 

The total has also seen a bit of movement, jumping from 126.5 at open to 128 at current. I agree with the upward movement but would be surprised if it moved much further. 

These teams are opposites in that Wagner has been dead set on the Under at 10-19 O/U while Howard has been profitable to the Over at 19-11-2 O/U. Something will have to give and I’m betting Howard’s style wins out considering only three of the 15 play-in games for No. 16 seeds have seen fewer than 128 points scored.

Wagner vs Howard betting trend to know

Howard is 12-7-1 O/U in games played away from home. Find more college basketball betting trends for Wagner vs. Howard.

Play at Pinnacle: Offering 25 + years of betting experience

Make your March Madness wagers at Pinnacle, which offers Canadians unbeatable value with the most competitive odds in the industry and high limits — come find out why Pinnacle is home to better odds and better payouts!

Sign Up Now 

Wagner vs Howard game info

Wagner vs Howard key injuries

Stay updated with the latest picks, odds, and news! Tap the to add us to your favorites on Google News to never miss a story.

Pages related to this topic