Vermont vs Duke Predictions, Picks, and Odds: Filipowski Ensures Blue Devils Keep Dancing in March Madness

Duke gets its NCAA Tournament going when it meets Vermont in the first round of the March Madness bracket.

You can safely say the Blue Devils never managed to meet expectations this season; they came into the preseason ranked No. 2 in the country and entered the postseason as a four-seed. Duke disappointingly finished the year with two straight losses — one to North Carolina to end the regular season and one to NC State to end its ACC Tournament run.

The Catamounts, meanwhile, have been red-hot to finish their season, riding a 10-game win streak. That includes capping things off with an America East Conference championship win over UMass Lowell. 

What's the best bet in this one? Find out when we look at the March Madness odds and give in our March Madness picks and predictions for today.

Vermont vs Duke best odds

Vermont vs Duke picks and predictions

This Vermont Catamounts team has an odd mix, given what we've seen over the years. 

It's not the prototypical lights-out shooting underdog we've grown accustomed to seeing from the Catamounts or even America East teams. This one is different. It relies on a defense that funnels teams to the rim, has high athleticism, and leans more on pure talent than ever to beat you. That's done a few things in this matchup and Vermont's tournament hopes while opening up a significant bit of value for one player prop. 

Kyle Filipowski has had an interesting season, to say the least. A court-storming fiasco seemed to spill over into his play on the court for a few games, but lately he's been as good as ever. He's scored over 20 in three of his last four games, which is his season's most significant scoring stretch. In addition, he's fresh off the second-most points he's scored all season, with 28 in the ACC Championship. I like the Duke Blue Devils forward here, and I'm taking him to go Over 15.5 points as my best bet.

Vermont is an excellent defensive team, but I worry about its interior presence here. It finished the year ranking just about the national average in post defense in a conference largely void of anything they'll see from Flip.

Even the out-of-conference schedule was lackluster. It faced one Power Five school in Virginia Tech. The Hokies' biggest post presence, Lynn Kid, scored 17 points on 9-for-11 shooting against them. That's the same player that rates out very similarly to Filipowski on post-up sets per Synergy. So, it is natural to expect similar domination.

The volume in this matchup for Filipowski should be at an all-time high. I'm expecting a game played in the halfcourt based on Vermont's tempo numbers, but as I mentioned previously, they are a solid defensive group. They should be able to defend Duke's dribble and drive creation quite well, and they'll have the option to defend the player that makes Duke tick in Tyrese Proctor. That's the conference's Defensive Player of the Year in Ileri Ayo-Faleye.

Because Vermont will have so much success elsewhere defending Duke, this will force more actions towards Filipowski and there's no reason he shouldn't deliver when called upon. 

Back the best matchup in this game for either team. Flip has played some of the best basketball of his career over the last month, and he will be fed the ball regularly in this game. I expect him to deliver for his team in the most significant moment of the season, just like he did in the ACC Championship a week ago, even though it came in a loss.

My best bet: Kyle Filipowski Over 15.5 points (-110 at FanDuel) 25% boost available

Vermont vs Duke same-game parlay

Kyle Filipowski Over 15.5 points

Duke moneyline

+110 at FanDuel

I'm keeping this same-game parlay overly simple and pairing our best bet with Duke to win.

While there's a chance that Vermont can keep this within the number, it can't score enough to win the game. Its offense has already struggled a good bit this season, and there's no direct path to scoring in the halfcourt here. I expect the pace of this game to keep it close for a bit, but eventually, Duke will lean on Vermont, and it won't be able to find the answers.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Vermont vs Duke spread and Over/Under analysis

I have no side on the spread here. Duke wins the game, but the number is too high for me.

Likewise, I don't have enough conviction on the other side. I worry about the Blue Devils' transition offense getting to Vermont late and who covers essentially turning into a coin flip. These two met once previously and it was a 1-point win for Duke in Cameron Indoor, so Vermont has the pedigree to hang here. However, as mentioned above, this is a different type of Vermont team, and I don't think it projects favorably here.

I like the Under here as it goes in line with things that I've talked about. There's a solid edge to my number of 129, with oddsmakers posting one of 132.5.

Five of the last six games for Vermont have gone Under, and a big reason is the aforementioned tempo that it plays with. The Catamounts are 350th in tempo, according to KenPom, which means only 12 college basketball teams play slower than them. They'll do an excellent job of controlling the pace here, as I don't think it'll be something that Duke is necessarily opposed to as long as it's getting regular post scoring.

Vermont vs Duke betting trend to know

Duke has hit the 1H moneyline in 19 of their last 24 games (+8.30 Units / 6% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Vermont vs. Duke.

Play at Pinnacle: Offering 25 + years of betting experience

Make your March Madness wagers at Pinnacle, which offers Canadians unbeatable value with the most competitive odds in the industry and high limits — come find out why Pinnacle is home to better odds and better payouts!

Sign Up Now 

Vermont vs Duke game info

Vermont vs Duke key injuries

Stay updated with the latest picks, odds, and news! Tap the to add us to your favorites on Google News to never miss a story.

Pages related to this topic