It will be an all-Texas affair when the Texas A&M Aggies and Houston Cougars meet in the March Madness bracket to battle for a trip to the Sweet 16.
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Texas A&M vs Houston best odds
Texas A&M vs Houston picks and predictions
The Texas A&M Aggies have shot out of their skin over the last few games, with Wade Taylor going on a bananas run in that same stretch. Over the past three postseason games, Taylor has scored over 30 twice and is coming off a 25-point performance against Nebraska to get here.
That's impressive, but it's hardly the main story. That's reserved for what the Aggies have done from deep. On the year, A&M ranks in the 350s nationally in 3-point shooting, yet over the last three games, they've scored 13, 8, and 11 while scoring 90+ in all those games. That's quite a feat for a team averaging just over 73 points per game before those three. It has to come down to earth at some point, and I'm expecting it to be here against Houston. My best bet is Texas A&M team total Under 61.5.
It's anecdotal, but teams regress in significant ways when they regress. As I said, A&M is undoubtedly due for some considerable shot regression. It's taking few good shots in this recent offensive explosion. ShotQuality grades the past three games as losses for A&M and has them near the bottom of the country's regression standings. I'm following those predictive analytics with my best bet.
By now, we know the story of the Houston Cougars defense. For the better part of the last decade, it has been one of the best in the country. This year is no different. The Cougs come into this game ranking highly in just about any defensive metric you can imagine and first overall in the country in efficiency. The question that A&M has to answer is the same one that most Houston opponents have to answer: How do we maintain consistent scoring throughout the game and not allow Houston to blow us out?
I don't know the answer to that. It has reverted to isolation ball for much of A&M's late-season renaissance. That's a death sentence against the Houston defense. The Cougs own an isolation defense that ranks in the Top 9% of basketball, holding opponents to just .66 points per possession on such. They also own the best pick-and-roll defense in basketball, holding opponents to .56 points per possession in that metric.
A&M is going to have to hit jump shots to hit this total. As we've said, various metrics point to significant regression from that standpoint, and it's hard to think it doesn't happen against the best defense in the land.
My projection on this total was 59.5, but even that seems a little dubious. We're most certainly going to see a game with less than 70 possessions, and in those spots, the Aggies could have done better. The last great defense that A&M has faced at a slow pace was way back in the non-conference against Virginia. It was a game with just 59 possessions, and the Aggies scored just 47 points. We cannot expect that low-scoring effort here, but it adds credence to my belief.
My best bet: Texas A&M team total Under 61.5 (-110 at bet365)
Texas A&M vs Houston same-game parlay
Texas A&M team total Under 61.5
Jamal Shead Over 4.5 rebounds
I'm paring my best bet with a reasonably correlated play, although it's not reflected in the odds.
Jamal Shead is one of the best long rebounders on the Houston team. He's generally seen his rebound numbers jump when he's faced a team that fires off many jump shots. One of the best examples is when he faced Texas earlier this season and grabbed 11. Expect those opportunities to be plentiful here as the Aggies will be firing away from deep.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Texas A&M vs Houston spread and Over/Under analysis
I like Houston to win this game and win it big. Consequently, I played an entire unit on the Houston spread of -10 at -110.
I think too many things are working against the Aggies in this matchup. The most direct way to say this is that Texas A&M has shot out of its skin for far too long, and that's just something that's not sustainable. I expect Houston to do what they do, which is guard relentlessly and go on multiple scoring bursts that put the game out of hand.
Naturally, I lean to the Under here. I feel better about isolating the team total Under of A&M. With the entire game, there is a risk of Houston being up to run this up late and doing enough themselves to get this Over.
As of late, it's been a mixed bag of totals for the Cougs. However, before the postseason, Houston had a run of five straight Unders. As for Texas A&M, with its uncharacteristic hot shooting recently, it's been on a big-time Over run for eight of its last 10 games going that direction.
Texas A&M vs Houston betting trend to know
Houston has hit the 1H moneyline in 30 of their last 36 games (+18.80 Units / 3% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Texas A&M vs. Houston.
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Texas A&M vs Houston game info
| Location: | FedExForum, Memphis, TN |
| Date: | Sunday, March 24, 2024 |
| Tip-off: | 8:40 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TNT |
Texas A&M vs Houston key injuries
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