TCU vs Utah State Predictions, Picks, and Odds: Miller Contributes to Barrage of Twos in March Madness Tilt

The first round of the Midwest region wraps up tonight with the No. 8 seed Utah State Aggies facing the No. 9 seed TCU Horned Frogs. It's always tough to decide which team will advance in an 8-9 matchup when filling out your March Madness bracket, so expect a close contest here.

March Madness odds have Texas Christian installed as a 4-point favorite with the Over/Under at 150.5. Should you back the Horned Frogs, or is there a better wager to make in your college basketball picks? I let you know with my March Madness picks and predictions for Utah State vs. TCU on Friday, March 22.

TCU vs Utah State best odds

TCU vs Utah State picks and predictions

The TCU Horned Frogs are coming off an ugly offensive performance against an elite Houston defense but they should bounce back here. Don't forget that they are 45th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency, per KenPom, and they love to push the pace ranking 31st in average length of possession (16.0 seconds).

The Utah State Aggies don't play quite as fast but they also run their offense at an above-average clip (17.1 seconds per possession) and they're even better with the ball, ranking 37th in adjusted offense.

Both of these teams are in the Top 15 of the country in transition efficiency, Top 35 in attacking the rim, and Top 40 in passing per ShotQualityBets. Not only do these schools have highly-efficient offenses, but both attacks match up extremely well against the weaknesses of these defenses. 

The Horned Frogs give up a ton of shots at the rim and are just 206th opponent 2-point percentage (50.9%). Meanwhile, the Aggies are 12th in the country in two-point percentage at 57.1% but are even worse at defending inside the arc, sitting outside the Top 300 in opponent 2PT% (53.1%). 

Although the Aggies shoot poorly from beyond the arc and hold opponents to just 29% shooting from deep, it won't matter here. Neither of these teams attempt many 3s with Utah State just 280th in the country in 3-point rate and TCU 327th.

That low frequency of 3-point attempts is actually a reason to like the Over since teams that rely on the 3-ball tend to be more volatile with their offensive production. Outside shooting can be a bit unreliable in the first round of the tourney due to different sight lines and nerves, and teams that attack inside are more likely to see shots drop. Take the Over. 

My best bet: Over 150.5 (-110 at Betway)

TCU vs Utah State same-game parlay

Over 150.5

Utah State +4.5

Emanuel Miller Over 14.5 points

+450 at bet365

These teams match up very well against each other and the NET and KenPom rankings rate these sides so closely that it's a bit surprising to see the spread favor TCU by as many as 4.5 points. 

KenPom is projecting a slim 1-point TCU victory while BartTorvik is projecting a 2-point win, which suggests that the Aggies are the side at this number. Keep in mind that they finished atop the conference standings in the very tough Mountain West and have lost just five games all season.

Emanuel Miller leads TCU with 15.9 ppg on 49/38/82 shooting splits. He's coming off an ugly performance against Houston's lockdown defense but he had dropped 15+ points in five of his previous seven games.

The fifth-year senior has NCAA tournament experience so don't expect him to shrink under the bright lights. He does most of his damage inside the arc where the Aggies struggle to defend.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

TCU vs Utah State spread and Over/Under analysis

This line hit the board with TCU at -3.5 with the O/U at 146.5. Early money came in on TCU shifting the spread to -4.5 but buyback has rolled it back to -4 at many books as of Thursday afternoon. Money has poured in on the Over with the total climbing as high as 151.

The Horned Frogs were up-and-down in conference play but that isn't surprising considering how tough the Big 12 is. They had impressive wins against Houston and Baylor earlier in the season while losing nail-biters against Iowa State, Baylor, Kansas, and Texas Tech. They've gone 10-10 SU and 12-8 ATS since the start of conference play.

The Aggies finished the regular season atop the Mountain West standings with a 14-4 record but lost by 16 points to San Diego State in the conference tournament semifinals. Despite a fantastic season, the Aggies haven't been covering spreads lately, going just 3-7-2 ATS in their last 12 games. 

TCU vs Utah State betting trend to know

Both of these teams are 4-1 to the Over in their last five games. Find more college basketball betting trends for TCU vs. Utah State.

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