Let the Madness begin!
The highly anticipated rite of passage known as March Madness begins early Thursday afternoon with an action-packed slate of 16 college basketball tournament matchups played across the United States. Do you have your March Madness bracket filled out yet?
With March Madness odds in mind, we’ve built two parlay cards we feel are the best way to take advantage of Thursday's exciting and challenging slate of games.
Join me as I dig into the college basketball odds and share my best March Madness picks, plus two free parlay cards for Thursday, March 21.
Round 1 March Madness Parlays
- Michigan State/Mississippi State Under 130.5 + Iowa State/South Dakota State Under 135.5 + Saint Peter's/Tenneesse Under 130 (+578 at DraftKings)
- Michigan State moneyline + McNeese St. +5.5 + Texas Tech moneyline (+463 at FanDuel)
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Best round 1 parlay picks
Michigan State-Mississippi State Under 130.5
Iowa State-South Dakota State Under 135.5
Saint Peter’s-Tennessee Under 130
Including First-Four games, the Under was 29-7 in the first round of last year's event and is 1-1-0 thus far in 2024.
Nerves, unfamiliar surroundings, short preparation time, and playing the opening round of a “win or go home” March Madness opening round tilt each contributes to a solid trend we’ll build this Thursday card around.
We’ll kick things off with a West Region matchup between the No. 9 seed Michigan State Spartans and the No. 8 seed Mississippi State Bulldogs. Both programs play slow tempos and sometimes struggle to score the rock–struggling shooters won’t have much fun on Thursday against these elite scoring and shooting defenses.
Michigan State boasts an Over/Under record of 14-19-0 to the Under and 2-3-0 to the Under at a neutral site. Mississippi State finished with a 15-18-0 record to the Under and were 3-6-0 to the Under on neutral courts.
Our second leg features a trip to the East Region and a matchup between No. 2 seed Iowa State Cyclones and No. 15 seed South Dakota State Jackrabbits.
South Dakota State has won eight straight and are terrific shooters from everywhere, but the Cyclones' defense is the best in the land. They surrendered 65 points or fewer in each of their previous eight with an O/U record of 16-18-0 to the Under and 3-3-0 on neutral courts.
The Jackrabbits boast an O/U mark of 15-15-1 and 3-6-0 to the Under when playing on neutral courts. Both sides' slower tempo and solid perimeter defenders will keep scoring at a premium in this one.
We’ll close our three-legger with the No. 2 seed Tennessee Volunteers as large favorites to defeat Saint Peter's in the Midwest Region on Thursday evening. The Vols boast one of the best stop units in D1 hoops and face a Peacocks offense averaging 67 points per contest.
Saint Peter's saving grace is its scoring defense. The Peacocks allowed the fourth-fewest points on the road nationally and ended 15-16-0 to the Under. They were 1-2-0 to the Under in neutral settings and meet a Vols program with a .500 O/U overall mark but 2-3-0 to the Under on neutrals, with a defense allowing 60 points or fewer in four of its last eight.
Michigan State moneyline
McNeese State +5.5
Texas Tech moneyline
The soundtrack for the Michigan State Spartans season is losing games they probably should’ve won–they’ve dropped five of their previous seven by a combined -37 points.
Turnovers have been an issue for the Bulldogs–their 14.1 points allowed from turnovers won’t cut it against this stout MSU defense, forcing 12.5 miscues they turn into 14.5 points nightly.
No. 12 seed McNeese State has a good Midwest Region matchup with the No. 5 seed Gonzaga Bulldogs. The Cowboys' 11-game winning streak is the third-longest nationally, but they face a Bulldogs program with a 9-1 record over their last 10.
McNeese State was 16-13-0 ATS this season and 1-0-0 against the number on a neutral court. It has a decent stop unit with a big offense to keep pace with a Gonzaga program with an overall sub-.500 ATS mark and a 3-4-0 neutral court ATS count.
Our final leg on the card comes from the South Region, where the No. 6 Texas Tech Red Raiders face the No. 11 seed NC State Wolfpack.
The Red Raiders have won four of their last five and can score the rock from anywhere. NC State is coming off a tremendous five-game run to win the ACC tourney but is 4-7 as the away team, and its 6-2 neutral-court record is skewed as their conference tournament accounted for five victories. Look for a Wolfpack letdown and a solid Red Raiders victory.
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