Oregon vs Creighton Predictions, Picks, and Odds: Bluejays Hold the Upper Hand in March Madness

The No. 11 Oregon Ducks face the No. 3 seed Creighton Bluejays in the second round of the NCAA Tournament on Saturday night. It's become a common occurrence for No. 11 seeds to upset No. 6 seeds in the opening round of the March Madness bracket, and the Ducks were one of three teams to pull off that feat on Thursday when they beat South Carolina in our college basketball picks.

Meanwhile, the Bluejays are national title contenders with the ninth-best March Madness odds, rolling to victory over Akron in their first-round matchup. College basketball odds have the Bluejays as 5.5-point favorites with Over/Under listed at 146 for this Midwest Region clash.

Here are my best free March Madness picks for Oregon vs. Creighton on March 23.

Oregon vs Creighton best odds

Oregon vs Creighton picks and predictions

The Oregon Ducks are red-hot but looking at both team's overall body of work this season, the Creighton Bluejays are the clear play at this number.

The Ducks are on a five-game winning streak and have shown vastly improved defense during that span, but they still rank 224th in the country in opponent 2-point percentage (51.3%) and 245th in opponent 3-point percentage (34.8%).

The Bluejays have a highly efficient offense that can score inside and out, ranking third in the country with a 60.5 2PT% and 37th with a 36.5 3PT%. The Ducks allowed 73 points in the first round but they faced a slow-paced South Carolina squad that made plenty of unforced turnovers and has few scoring options. Creighton has three players averaging more than 17.0 ppg, and with an experienced backcourt, they won't be making sloppy mistakes like the Gamecocks. 

Oregon also benefited from an outlier performance from Jermaine Couisnard, who dropped 40 points while shooting 64% from the floor and 56% from deep against the Gamecocks. Couisnard is a good player but he was averaging 15.4 ppg on 38.8 FG% before the tourney, so expect massive regression here.

Another player who had a big game in Round 1 was Oregon center N'Faly Dante, and while he's been a consistent force, he'll be matched up against an elite defender in Ryan Kalkbrenner on Saturday. Kalkbrenner was named Big East Defensive Player of the Year for the third straight season and he anchors a Creighton defense that's fourth in the country at defending the rim per ShotQualityBets, while also ranking 20th in opponent 2PT% (45.8%). 

Not only do the Bluejays shoot better and defend at a higher level than the Ducks, but they also do a better job on the boards. Creighton is 32nd in the country in rebounding rate (53.3%), while Oregon is 159th (50.5%) and is significantly smaller on the wings.

The Ducks might be hot but the Bluejays also have momentum, having gone 8-2 straight up and against the spread in their last 10 games with double-digit wins against Marquette, Seton Hall, and UConn. Back them to cruise to another quality win on Saturday.

My best bet: Creighton -5 (-110 at bet365)

Oregon vs Creighton same-game parlay

Creighton -5.5

Jermaine Couisnard Under 17.5 points

Baylor Scheierman Over 9.5 rebounds

+400 at bet365

Couisnard's points total looks slightly inflated due to his heroic performance against South Carolina. Keep in mind that he had gone over this number in just four of his previous 14 games entering the tourney, and despite a pair of outlier performances this month, he's averaging 16.1 ppg on the season.

The Bluejays do a great job of clogging the paint and chasing shooters at the arc, which forces players like Couisnard into tough mid-range attempts.

Baylor Scheierman does the heavy lifting for Creighton, averaging 18.3 ppg and 9.1 rebounds per contest. He has pulled down double-digit rebounds in 10 of his last 13 games and racked up 13 boards against Akron in Round 1.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Oregon vs Creighton spread and Over/Under analysis

This line opened with Creighton at -5.5, and while early money has come in on the Ducks, books have been reluctant to move off that opening number. Some books have shifted the line to Creighton -5, but others have Creighton -5.5 priced at -105 instead. Meanwhile, the total opened at 146 and has remained unchanged.  

The Bluejays took a while to separate from MAC champ Akron in the Round of 64, but they eventually pulled away to win 77-60 and cover as 12-point faves. This is an experienced squad that has many of the same key players that helped Creighton advance to the Elite Eight last year. The Bluejays rank 12th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency and 26th in adjusted defensive efficiency per KenPom. 

The Ducks were having a down year and it looked like they were going to miss the tournament until they caught fire in the Pac-12 tournament. Their biggest improvement has come on defense, allowing just 66.2 ppg in their last five games after surrendering 72.8 ppg before that. 

Oregon head coach Dana Altman will be coaching against his former team, having previously led Creighton for 16 years until leaving for Eugene in 2010. Greg McDermott has been coaching the Bluejays ever since, boasting deeper March Madness runs and more appearances in the AP Top 25.

Oregon vs Creighton betting trend to know

The Ducks are 3-0 ATS in their last three games, but before that, they had gone just 1-10 ATS in their previous 13 contests. Find more college basketball betting trends for Oregon vs. Creighton.

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