Oakland vs NC State Predictions, Picks, and Odds: Another Golden Moment

It's certainly not the matchup we expected in round two of the March Madness bracket, but it's the one we've got. NC State and Oakland are set to meet this evening, and a trip to the Sweet 16 will be at stake.

This magical run for the Wolfpack continues to go on. Less than two weeks ago, this was the end of head coach Kevin Keatts era at NC State. Then they got hot; State reeled off five wins in five days in the ACC Tournament, then continued that in the first round when it efficiently handled Texas Tech. Now it's here.

Oakland pulled off one of the great upsets of the tournament over Kentucky. Jack Gohlke came one three short of tying the tournament record with ten, and the rest was history as the Golden Grizzlies defied most March Madness picks and beat the Wildcats. 

What's the best bet in this one? Find out when we look at the March Madness odds and give it in our college basketball picks and predictions for Oakland vs. NC State. 

Oakland vs NC State best odds

Oakland vs NC State picks and predictions

What a great matchup we have in store here. We will see two of the March stars and best big man of the country go at it in DJ Burns and Trey Townsend. We also have two great coaching stories, Kevin Keatts and Greg Kampe.

Oakland's silky confidence has got them to this point, and they seem to remain that way going into this matchup. 

"That's what Jack meant by that Cinderella thing," Kampe said following the win over Kentucky. "We don't look at ourselves that way. We're not pretenders. We believe that we belong here."

I'm starting to lean on that confidence again here and grabbing Oakland ML as my best bet.

So often, it's about the matchups and March, and that's what this one is about. This is a rough one for NC State.

We just the Oakland zone defense leave one of the best offenses in the country befuddled and confused for nearly 40 minutes. That's something that can be replicated here. NC State hasn't been good against the zone this season. Naturally, you'd expect that for an offense so heavily reliant on running through the post, especially when that big man is playing off the dribble. The zone data for NC State is limited. Not many teams in the ACC play it outside Syracuse, whose data is useless as the Orange were abysmal defensively this season. Last year, NC State saw it much more and put up pretty bad numbers against it.

I can offer numbers to support why that's such an issue against the elite zone of Oakland, but really, all you have to do is look at its last game against Kentucky. It held the nation's top-scoring team to just 76 points - a feat only a few SEC teams could accomplish.

On the other hand, there's a potential for Oakland to repeat the three-point exploits it did against Kentucky. 

I've talked about it repeatedly this year, but NC State has been an inferior spot-up group. Its run in the ACC Championship heavily relied on some lucky shot variance as North Carolina and Virginia missed many open shots from deep. Asking Jack Gohlke to do what he did against Kentucky is not sustainable. However, what is sustainable is asking him to deliver an average performance, which consists of him hitting an average of four three-pointers in the game. It will likely be enough if he does this, as the Wolfpack have so many offensive issues to address.

Give me Oakland to win the game outright. I don't trust Keatts to develop a game plan that is solid enough on a one-day turnaround to score enough. Even if I did, it would be a difficult matchup for NC State to find answers. That belief is increased when you have a coach with such a poor ATS record on short turnarounds leading the way.

My best bet: Oakland moneyline (+210 at bet365)

Oakland vs NC State same-game parlay

Oakland moneyline

Jack Gohlke over 3.5 threes

+325 at bet365

I'm pairing our best bet with Jack Gohlke to continue his March Madness. 

As I mentioned above, the nation's leading three-point shooter differs from the person you want to see on your schedule when you rank near the bottom of your league in spot-up defense. That's the case for NC State, and I'm wondering if that's something they can fix overnight. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Oakland vs NC State spread and Over/Under analysis

We're riding Oakland to win the game outright with no points necessary as our best bet. 

I mentioned Keats in this role with a short turnaround for a good reason. He's 0-3 ATS in his career in the NCAA Tournament with one day rest. That looms large here. The Grizzlies have been a red-hot 7-3 ATS of their last ten games. NC State has racked up several consecutive wins over the previous month, but they only have a 6-4 cover rate in that stretch.

I lean to the Under of 147 here. My projections make it 145.5. 

The well-noted elite Grizzlies zone defense should cause NC State to regularly work deep into the shot clock to find open looks. On the other end, Oakland is comfortable playing games in the 60 to 65 possession range. That pace should make this one get the Under home. 

Oakland vs NC State betting trend to know

Oakland has hit the 1H Moneyline in 24 of their last 35 games (+15.55 Units / 22% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Oakland vs. NC State.

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