National Championship Predictions: 3 Betting Experts Weigh In on Tonight's Action

Purdue vs UConn prediction: Tristen Newton Over 5.5 assists (-120 at Pinnacle)

By Jason Logan

As the defending champ, Connecticut also owns the edge in experience, with guys like senior guard Tristen Newton setting the course for UConn.

He won’t be rattled by the pressure and has been able to impact the Huskies’ outcomes in so many ways, including making plays. His shooting has been a mess the past two contests (combined 4-for-17 from the field) but his ability to facilitate the offense and set up UConn’s other scores is constant.

The Bob Cousy Award winner finished with nine assists in the win over Alabama in the Final Four and is averaging more than seven assists over the five March Madness games. For the season, Newton dished out 6.2 dimes per outing and that’s where his Over/Under assist prop sits for Monday’s matchup.

Player projections for the title game forecast Newton for 6.4 helpers over 32 minutes. Considering he’s likely to log 35+ minutes in the tightest game UConn has played all March (he played 35 minutes vs. Alabama), Newton’s ceiling on assists is north of seven.

Purdue vs UConn Zach Edey spotlight: Over 23.5 points (-120 at FanDuel)

By Rohit Ponnaiya

Zach Edey has eclipsed this number in 10 of his last 12 games and is averaging 28.5 points per game on 64.5% shooting during that span. There are reasons to consider the Under since the Huskies have a terrific defense, play at an extremely slow pace, and also have Donovan Clingan, who is a strong interior defender. And at 7-foot-2 and 280 pounds, he actually has the size and mobility to compete with the 7-foot-4, 300-pound Edey. 

However, Edey should still surpass his points total based on sheer volume alone. Keep in mind that while he leads the country with 24.9 ppg on the season, that number is a bit suppressed due to blowout wins where he saw limited playing time or contests where he got into foul trouble. He's barely come off the floor in the last few rounds, missing a total of just three minutes in the last three games. He's also seen his usage rate rise against top competition when the Boilermakers need him to carry their offense. 

National Championship prop prediction: Fletcher Loyer Under 1.5 three-pointers (-125 at DraftKings)

By Douglas Farmer

No one in Purdue’s offense is more reliant on threes than sophomore guard Fletcher Loyer, who attempted 141 threes this season and 157 two-pointers, hitting his long-range shots at a higher percentage (44.7% compared to 40.1%).

UConn’s scouting report knows to stick to Loyer outside the arc and release him inside it. Since the start of the Big Ten Tournament, Loyer has gone 11-for-21 from deep in seven games, hitting just one 3-pointer in four of them. He is not actively looking for his shot, and the Huskies will take it away even further.