Longwood vs Houston Predictions, Picks, and Odds: Cougars Bring Defense to March Madness

The Houston Cougars will begin their National Championship quest against the 16th-seeded Longwood Longwood tonight in the March Madness bracket.

The Lancers got here by winning the Big South Conference tournament. Some of its games during that trip were close, but not the championship game. Longwood throttled UNC Asheville early and often en route to an 85-59 victory. Houston spent much of the season looking like the best team in the country and had that ranking, too. However, the year ended with a very disappointing blowout loss to Iowa State in the Big 12 Championship game. 

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Find our best bet when we look at the March Madness odds and give out our college basketball picks and predictions for Friday, March 21st.

Longwood vs Houston best odds

Longwood vs Houston picks and predictions

Scoring against the top defense in the country is always a problem that will be maximized when a team plays at a significant talent disadvantage. That will be even more apparent when you're a team whose strength is directly your opponent's strength, and that's the case here.

I don't know how Longwood scores, and I'm attacking that with my best bet of a 1H team total under 20.5

The Lancers made the NCAA Tournament because they could do a few things well. Specifically, they get the rim at a high clip for highly efficient shots and offensive rebounds off those misses — no such luck against the Houston Cougars. They, once again, own a Top 10 low-rim shot rate, just as they have for the last five years, and it's part of the fabric of head coach Kelvin Sampson's program identity. You're just not going to rebound against Houston.

Although the rebounding numbers aren't nearly as gaudy as they were a few years ago, this team still rebounds at a Top 50 rate and is among the elite on the offensive glass. You aren't going to bully the Cougars, and a team without a distinct physical advantage certainly isn't going to be able to win that war in any sizable way.

To score against Houston, you must make jump shots at a reasonably high clip to be competitive. That's a problem for Longwood, who simply isn't a good shooting team. It enters this tournament with excellent shot volume numbers and poor conversion. ShotQuality Bets ranks them as the country's 289th "best" shooting team. From an eFG% perspective, the Lancers shot 49.3%, which is only slightly better nationally and one of the worst in the field.

So if Longwood can't get to the rim and can't get second-chance points, I'm left to ask the same question from before: How do the Lancers score?

The answer is I don't know. Or I at least certainly don't know how they do it with any regularity. That's why I've landed on this bet, which I see as closer to a coin flip than the probability that the +175 odds suggest. 

Longwood enters this game ranked 171st in BartTorvik's efficiency metrics. Houston has faced seven teams ranking 150th or lower in this metric this season. Those opponents scored in the first half: 19, 27, 20, 14, 16, 14, 18 points.

I'm backing the most consistent element of this game: the Houston defense. At this number, with the Cougs coming off an embarrassing loss to Iowa State in the Big 12 Tournament, it's one I cannot pass up.

My best bet: Longwood first-half alternative total Under 20.5 (+175 at bet365)

Longwood vs Houston same-game parlay

Longwood 1H TT Under 20.5

LJ Cryer 3+ rebounds

+475 at bet365

In addition to Longwood's alternate total in the first half, we're targeting Houston player prop in our same-game parlay. That prop is LJ Cryer rebounds.

I'd expect extra attention to the backboard, even more than usual. Houston knows that Longwood's only way of staying in contact is by creating a bevy of second-chance points via offensive rebounds. Cryer has more than doubled his rebounding average over the last month and could benefit from a little more volume, depending on who is available for the Cougars.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Longwood vs Houston spread and Over/Under analysis

The only natural way Longwood hangs around is if Houston allows it. There are a few ways it can do that, and one is poor shot selection, which the Cougars have been prone to occasionally. That said, I don't see much of an edge. 

My projection made this spread Houston -24, so there needs to be more of an edge on the 23.5 number. These two have never met in school history, but Longwood has managed to ride a nice ATS streak as of late, with covers in seven of their last 10 games.

Naturally, I lean to the Under. I like the approach of our best bet the most, but I still see some value in the pregame number 128.5. My projections made it 125.

As you might imagine, Under bets are profitable when the Cougars are involved. They come into this matchup with four in their last five games. It's not a coincidence that this has directly coincided with us entering the month of March, either.

Longwood vs Houston betting trend to know

Houston has hit the Game Total Under in 20 of their last 35 games (+3.50 Units / 9% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Longwood vs. Houston.

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