Grambling State vs Purdue Predictions, Picks, and Odds: Boilermakers' March Madness Redemption Tour Starts Strong

The No. 16 seed Grambling State Tigers face the No. 1 seed Purdue Boilermakers in the first round of tonight's college basketball picks.

Since the March Madness bracket expanded to 64 teams, on only two occasions has a No. 16 seed upset a No. 1 seed in the first round. However, one of those shocking upsets happened last year when this Boilermakers squad fell as massive 23.5-point faves. 

March Madness odds have the Boilermakers installed as even bigger faves this year, coming in at -26.5 for this Midwest Region showdown.  Here are my best free March Madness picks for Grambling State vs. Purdue on March 21.

Grambling State vs Purdue best odds

Grambling State vs Purdue picks and predictions

The Grambling State Tigers are coming off a come-from-behind overtime victory against Montana State in First Four on Wednesday night. They also beat SWAC dynasty Texas Southern to win their first conference title, so this could be a bit of a letdown spot.

The Tigers were certainly the best team in their conference, but there's a reason that the NET rankings have the SWAC rated as the worst conference in Divison 1. Don't forget that the Tigers were massacred when playing against quality opponents at the start of the season. They lost to Dayton, Colorado, and Florida by at least 30 points and fell to Iowa State by a whopping 55.

The Purdue Boilermakers have been one of the most dominant teams in the country all season and they were especially successful against smaller schools during their non-conference slate. They beat Eastern Kentucky, Jacksonville, Texas Southern, and Morehead State by at least 27 points, while destroying SoCon champ Samford by 53 points in their season-opener.

With this game taking place in Indianapolis, Purdue won't have to travel far and will be surrounded by plenty of their fans. The Boilermakers boasted an incredible scoring margin of +21.8 points per game at Mackey Arena, so if this feels like a home game for them, things could get out of hand quickly. 

However, the main reason why I like Purdue to cover this massive spread is motivation. This is essentially the same lineup that got embarrassed as a 23.5-point favorite against Fairleigh Dickinson last year. Expect the Boilermakers to come out pissed off and locked in, keeping their foot on the pedal until the final whistle.

My best bet: Purdue -26.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

Grambling State vs Purdue same-game parlay

Purdue -26.5

Zach Edey Under 25.5 points

Fletcher Loyer Under 2.5 rebounds

+575 at DraftKings

Purdue center Zach Edey will likely repeat as National Player of the Year, leading the country with 24.4 ppg on 61.9% shooting. However, keep in mind that in those five previously mentioned blowout wins against small-conference schools, Edey averaged just 23 minutes per game and never scored more than 18 points.

Matt Painter doesn't force-feed Edey the ball in matchups like this and he prefers to rest his star big man when games get out of hand. That said, the Boilermakers have the supporting cast to run away with this game, even with Edey on the bench for stretches. 

Fletcher Loyer is part of that supporting cast, but he doesn't do much on the glass. Loyer averages just 2.1 rebounds per game, logging fewer than 2.5 rebounds in 20 of his last 28 games. When you also factor in Grambling's sluggish pace and the fact that Loyer's minutes would be suppressed in a blowout, the Under is an easy play.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Grambling State vs Purdue spread and Over/Under analysis

This line hit the board on Wednesday night with Purdue installed as a 26.5-point favorite and the O/U listed at 138.5. The spread has remained at -26.5, but the total has ticked up to 139.5.

The Boilermakers were incredible in non-conference play, beating Gonzaga, Tennessee, Marquette, Alabama, and Arizona at neutral sites. They also cruised to an easy regular season title in the Big Ten before falling to Wisconsin in the conference tournament semifinals.

The Boilermakers are fourth in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency per KenPom while ranking 21st on defense. Despite their dominance, they've had a tough time covering lately, going just 2-7 against the spread in their last nine games. 

This is Grambling State's first appearance in the Big Dance. The Tigers went 14-4 in SWAC play during the regular season before rolling through the conference tournament. They're 4-0 straight up and ATS in their last four games, but struggled against non-conference foes earlier in the season, going 0-10 SU and 3-7 ATS in lined games.

Grambling State vs Purdue betting trend to know

The Boilermakers are 7-2-2 ATS in non-conference games. Find more college basketball betting trends for Grambling vs. Purdue.

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