Final Four Weekend is one of the biggest sporting events on the calendar, which means it’s a massive day for March Madness odds movement.
With two huge semifinal showdowns in Glendale tonight, sportsbooks have been humming with action since the Final Four odds for these two semifinal showdowns hit the board last weekend.
Betting tips off with Purdue vs. NC State at 6:09 p.m. ET followed by UConn vs. Alabama at 8:49 p.m. ET.
Before then, we take a look at the betting markets for those contests and the most popular Final Four picks and predictions.
Final Four odds movement news
No. 11 NC State Wolfpack vs. No. 1 Purdue Boilermakers
Purdue opened as a 9.5-point favorite against Cinderella NC State, and that spread has since slimmed to -9 at most sportsbooks on Saturday morning.
It would seem Final Four picks are siding with the Wolfpack and their wild ride through the postseason. According to BetMGM sportsbooks, 67% of ticket count and 66% of money is taking the points with North Carolina State. Our Covers Consensus concurs, showing 73% of picks backing the Pack.
It’s not just the point spread attracting NC State believers, either. The moneyline markets — outright odds — have been swamped by play on the underdog Wolfpack at +350.
According to bet365, 69% of moneyline bets are siding with Cinderella. BetMGM is drawing even more one-sided ML play on NC State, with over 90% of tickets and money asking for a fairytale.
“It’s Cinderella by ranking but with the way they’re playing, they’re definitely playing better than any Cinderellas,” Aron Wattleworth, trading manager at bet365 told Covers’ “Sharp 600” podcast this week. “Unlike most big dog games, we’re seeing a lot of action on NC State trade-up… very rare for a price of that situation.”
As for the Over/Under for this semifinal, it opened as low as 145.5 points and is trading around 146.5 at most books on Saturday. BetMGM reports 60% of tickets and 58% of handle on the Over. Covers Consensus data is similarly leaning to the Over, with 59% of picks banking on a high-scoring finish to this first game.
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No. 4 Alabama Crimson Tide vs. No. 1 UConn Huskies
The defending national champs opened at -11.5 and after a couple quick stops at -12 and -12.5, have come back down to that original spot for most of the week heading into the Final Four.
Action is a little more divided, depending on where you bet. According to bet365 sportsbooks, 51% of ticket count is taking Alabama as a big underdog, which is the same percentage of picks showing from our Covers Consensus.
“UConn’s been a buzz saw,” Wattleworth told Covers. “But we are seeing support for Alabama both on the spread and the moneyline.”
BetMGM books, however, are drawing more attention on UConn, with 63% of ticket count and 65% of money not shying away from laying the lumber with the Huskies.
Moneyline odds range from Alabama +450 to +550 depending on liability, as many books are heavy on UConn futures bets to win the tournament again. Bet365 is reporting 65% of bet count on Connecticut’s moneyline of -800, while BetMGM says 88% of tickets and 78% of handle to taking a flyer on the Tide at +525.
The total for this game was as high as 163.5 points earlier in the week but has come down to 160.5 on the weekend. This contrasts the betting patterns on the Over/Under all week, with heavy interest in the Over.
Covers Consensus reports a heavy lean to the Over, with 67% of picks projecting plenty of points. BetMGM sportsbooks echo those efforts, with 71% of ticket count and 78% of handle playing the Over.
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