Elite 8 Parlay Picks: March Madness Predictions for Saturday

The March Madness bracket insanity rumbles on as the Elite 8 gets underway Saturday night. 

First up, it’s the East Region final between the No. 3 seed Illinois Fighting Illini and the defending champion UConn Huskies. After that, it’s the West Region final between the No. 6 seed Clemson Tigers and the No. 4-seeded Alabama Crimson Tide.

After looking over the March Madness odds board, I’ve pieced together a parlay for tonight’s action. 

First, I take a look at whether UConn’s torrid run will come to an end, or if it will take advantage of a porous Illinois defense. Next, I question whether or not Illini wing Terrence Shannon can continue having fantastic scoring games with regularity as the competition gets tougher and tougher. Finally, I target another faulty defense with Alabama and see how Clemson big man PJ Hall can benefit. 

Check out my parlay March Madness picks for Saturday, March 30.

March Madness Sweet 16 Parlays

• UConn TT o82.5/Newton o5.5 AST/Shannon u22.5 PTS/ Hall o15.5 PTS (+694 at DraftKings)

Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Best Elite 8 parlay picks

UConn team total Over 82.5

Tristen Newton Over 5.5 assists

Terrence Shannon Jr. Under 22.5 points

PJ Hall Over 15.5 points

+694 at DraftKings

Brad Underwood’s No. 3 seed Illinois Fighting Illini have been impressive lately, winning the Big Ten Tournament, then notching two blowout wins to open the NCAA Tournament, and most recently outlasting a feisty Iowa State squad in the Sweet 16. 

That being said, once you dive into the schedule more, things become murky. The Morehead State Eagles were a No. 14 seed, after all, and the Duquesne Dukes were a fairly soft No. 11 seed who just got hot at the right time to advance. 

Going back to the Big Ten Tournament, the last two teams they faced — Nebraska and Wisconsin — both had miserable showings in the Big Dance while getting bounced on the first day. Going all the way back to January 24, Illinois has faced just three opponents that went on to win an NCAA Tournament game (Northwestern, Michigan State, Purdue)... and it lost in all three instances.

That’s excluding the most recent game, an impressive 72-69 win over Iowa State — that makes one noteworthy win in the last two months. This Illinois team is undeniably talented, but I still have questions — especially on the defensive end, where it ranks 143rd in Bart Torvik’s adjusted defensive efficiency since the start of February. 

It’s rare to see a team with those poor defensive metrics make it this far in March, and now the Illini are facing the juggernaut that is the defending champs and No. 1-seeded UConn Huskies. Naturally, I’m not going to let this opportunity slide and will be taking the Huskies to score a lot of points. 

The first offering I’ll take is their team total Over at 82.5. They average 81.6 ppg, are in tremendous form, and this is a plus matchup. Secondly, I’ll bet on point guard Tristen Newton dishing out 6+ assists considering he averages 6.1 per game, faces a poor defense, and has handed out at least eight dimes in four of his last five games. 

The last prop from this game I'll target is Illini wing Terrence Shannon to go Under his points prop of 22.5. How, you might ask, is that possible when he’s on such a heater? All heaters burn out eventually and it’s time to sell high on Shannon after a terrific run in which he’s dropped 26+ in five straight games while averaging 31.9 ppg. 

I already went over Illinois’ poor level of opposition during that stretch, so I find it highly unlikely he continues to scorch nets as he has been lately. He’s a terrific transition scorer and a phenomenal athlete, but it’s hard to see his recent 3-point shooting do anything but regress. UConn ranks sixth in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency, plays at a slow pace (319th in adjusted tempo), and is one of the few teams with the size and athleticism to counteract Shannon. 

The final prop of this parlay is No. 6 seed Clemson Tigers big man PJ Hall to go Over his alternate points prop of 15.5. To my eyes, he’s one of the best bigs in the nation and is a threat to score from all three levels, so he’s a problem for any defense — let alone the No. 4 seed Alabama Crimson Tide’s leaky stop unit. 

Nate Oats’ squad checks in at just 102nd in adjusted defensive efficiency. I’ll repeat that it’s rare for a team with such poor defensive metrics to advance far in the dance, and I don’t want to miss out on an opportunity to fade a team that's exceeded expectations thus far but is bound to falter eventually. 

The Tide’s defense has looked suspect in three of their last four games. First, Florida dropped 102 points on them in an SEC Tournament loss. Then, the Tide surrendered 96 points to No. 13 Charleston. Most recently, they allowed No. 1 UNC to score 87 points despite their best player shooting 0-for-9 from 3-point range. 

Hall averages 18.4 ppg and has scored 16+ points in 23 of 35 games this season. I’ll take him to go Over his points prop of 15.5 to round out this four-leg parlay. 

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