March Madness Props and Best Bets: Duke vs Houston Predictions for the Sweet 16

Prop bet #1: Pain for McCain

Jared McCain comes into the Sweet 16 off a 30-point performance in the Round of 32 win over James Madison. The 6-foot-3 freshman finished the day 10-for-15 from the floor, with eight of those 11 makes coming from beyond the arc.

On the season, McCain has been Duke’s primary perimeter threat, taking and making a team-high in triples. He averages 2.5 makes from downtown per game, which accounts for more than half of his scoring average of 14 points.

The Duke Blue Devils’ fantastic frosh faces a different animal in Houston’s defense on Friday, however. The Houston Cougars get their heels above the 3-point arc and allow foes to fire at just a 30% clip, giving up only 6.1 makes from distance per outing.

Before that offensive eruption against JMU, McCain wasn’t shooting the ball that well coming into the NCAA Tournament. He went 2-for-6 in the Round of 64 win over Vermont and finished with 15 points and was 0-for-3 on triples in the ACC tournament loss to NC State.

His 3-point prop for Friday’s Sweet 16 game has the Under 2.5 makes at -170, which doesn’t bode well for this point total either. In the 20 games in which he made two or fewer 3-pointers, McCain scored 14 or more points only three times and averaged just 9.65 points in those contests.

McCain’s Over/Under on scoring is at 13.5 points (Under -125) and projections for Duke have the Blue Devils scoring about 65 total points with McCain contributing just shy of 11 points.

Jared McCain prop: Under 13.5 points (-125 at DraftKings)

Prop bet #2: Make your Mark

Houston’s smothering defense makes you work for every bucket. Luckily, Duke has a workhorse in forward Mark Mitchell. 

The 6-foot-9 sophomore isn’t breaking down checks one-on-one or draining step-back jumpers. He’s finishing at the rim, grabbing offensive boards for putbacks, and getting to the foul line.

For everything the Cougars do well on defense, allowing offensive rebounds and sending teams to the line are two of the softer spots for UH. 

Houston’s aggressive defense sits 268th in personal fouls and sent Texas A&M to the stripe 45 times in the Round of 32. The Cougs also rank 233rd in offensive rebound rate allowed and watched the Aggies snatch a staggering 22 offensive rebounds last weekend. 

Mitchell is second on the Dukies in free-throw attempts (shooting 63% from the foul line) and averaged 2.3 offensive rebounds an outing. He’s able to grind out buckets when the offense is struggling, which is what we saw against Vermont in the tournament opener.

The Blue Devils couldn’t get going, finishing the day shooting just 42%, but Mitchell mustered 15 points in a workmanlike effort. And with Houston pressuring the perimeter and sending extra bodies at 7-footer Kyle Filipowski, Mitchell will be called upon again to punch the time clock.

His player props for the Sweet 16 have his scoring total at 9.5 points, which reflects what we saw from him against JMU in the Round of 32. Duke was able to get what it wanted, so Mitchell took a backseat and finished with only two points on 1-for-6 shooting. 

He averages more than 12 points on the season and has put up 10 or more in 18 of his previous 25 games. He’s played heavier minutes in the postseason, recording 32, 35, and 35 minutes compared to his season average of less than 29. Given that floor time, Mitchell projects for more than 10 points versus Houston.

Mark Mitchell prop: Over 9.5 points (-110 at DraftKings)

Prop bet #3: Proctor, Proctor, gimme the news…

If Duke is going to put a dent in the UH defense it will need to move the ball and make the Cougars pay for their aggression. 

Houston is susceptible to movement in the halfcourt, primarily cuts and pick-and-roll ball screens, ranking 334th and 245th in points allowed per play to those two offensive schemes, according to ShotQualityBets. 

While the Cougars don’t give up many points – and therefore assists – the buckets they do budge on come from passing, leaving UH with an assist-to-FGM rate of 59.5% (350th). Duke, conversely, is at its best when moving the ball to the open man. The Blue Devils sit 42nd in total assists per contest and boast an assist-to-FGM rate of 54.5%.

Tyrese Proctor is the guy doing most of the wheeling and dealing for the Dukies. He leads the team with 3.7 assists an outing and at 6-foot-5, he has a huge advantage seeing over the shorter Houston perimeter defenders. 

His assist total for the Sweet 16 is at 3.5 O/U with the Under juiced to -135, given Houston’s defense resume and game models calling for mid-60’s from the Blue Devils offense.

Proctor had five dimes in the blowout of James Madison but was shut out in the assist column versus Vermont, which was more in part to Duke’s poor shooting effort in that tournament opener. The Aussie product had five assists in the loss to NC State in the ACC tournament and has recorded four or more assists in five of Duke’s last nine games. 

Proctor has been logging major minutes at the end of the year, playing the full 40 in closer contests versus NC State (twice) and UNC. Player projections forecast more than 3.5 assists should he play 37 minutes or more Friday. Some sharper books are higher on the Over 3.5 assist with the price around -119, so we'll take the shorter juice on the same total at DraftKings.

Tyrese Proctor prop: Over 3.5 assists (-105 at DraftKings)