Colorado vs Boise State Predictions, Picks, and Odds: da Silva Hungry for March Madness Ticket

Two West Coast teams square off in the First Four as the Colorado Buffaloes and Boise State Broncos meet as No. 10 seeds in Dayton, Ohio tonight. 

The Buffaloes had a mostly successful season under Tad Boyle but fell just short in the Pac-12 Tournament Championship game against the Oregon Ducks. The Broncos, meanwhile, will be out to prove something after dropping in their first game of the MWC Tournament to the New Mexico Lobos by 10 points.

Looking at March Madness odds, the Buffaloes are 2.5-point favorites with the total sitting at 140.5. The Broncos were vocal about thinking they deserved a better seed, but they’ll need to avoid yet another March letdown if they want those cries to be taken seriously and make it onto the March Madness bracket.

What's the best bet for this First Four game? Find out in my free college basketball picks for Colorado vs. Boise State on Wednesday, March 20. 

Before filling out your bracket, be sure to check out what our betting experts are saying on our March Madness picks page!

Colorado vs Boise State best odds

Colorado vs Boise State picks and predictions

Leon Rice’s Boise State Broncos are fighting against history, carrying the non-illustrious distinction of ‘most NCAA Tournament appearances without a win’ at 0-9 all-time. 

The Broncos found themselves on the bubble after dropping two of their last three games. Both defeats came by 10 points, although both were against NCAA Tournament teams (Nevada, New Mexico). Boise State checks in at 40th in KenPom — 52nd in adjusted offensive efficiency and 29th in adjusted defensive efficiency.

The Colorado Buffaloes have had strong predictive metrics all season but found themselves close to the cut-off line on Selection Sunday. The Buffs check in at 25th in KenPom, ranking 26th in adjusted offensive efficiency and 42nd in adjusted defensive efficiency. 

They’re led by two star players in guard KJ Simpson (19.6 points, 5.7 rebounds, 4.9 assists) and forward Tristan da Silva (15.8 ppg). Likely NBA Draft lottery pick Cody Williams is a star freshman who is third with 12.6 ppg. Boyle has been running a shallow rotation lately but has found the players that he trusts and has rewarded them with big-time roles. 

This will be a tight game between two teams that have thrived beating up on bad teams for the most part, while sprinkling in enough success to make them tournament-worthy teams — but not necessarily separating themselves from their opponent. I have my eyes on da Silva’s points prop, which is listed at 14.5 on DraftKings Sportsbook.

The 6-foot-9 senior will be relied upon heavily in this matchup, and Boise State likes to force teams to the mid-range on defense, ranking 295th in percentage of opponent field goals occurring via 2-point jumpers (28% via Hoop-Math). da Silva is cash from the mid-range — hitting 2-point jumpers at 51.4% — which is 11 percentage points better than any of his teammates. 

He’s a three-level scorer and the onus will be on him as a veteran leader in a big game against a tough opponent. I’ll bet on the forward from Munich coming through in the clutch. 

My best bet: Tristan da Silva Over 14.5 points (-115 at DraftKings)

Colorado vs Boise State same-game parlay

Tristan da Silva Over 14.5 points

Cody Williams Over 8.5 points

+214 at DraftKings

Freshman phenom Cody Williams has missed 13 games this season due to injury but has been mighty effective when on the court, averaging 12.6 ppg on 56.5% shooting. He attacks the rim relentlessly and also hits 42.1% from downtown, making him a threat that opponents must take into account or risk paying the price. 

Boise State’s defense attempts to keep opponents away from the rim but is susceptible to easy buckets if they do allow a player to get to their spot, ranking 227th in Haslametrics’ near-proximity field goal defense vs. the average opponent. That’s right up Williams’ alley as he’s an athletic freak with long arms and is happy attacking off the bounce. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Colorado vs Boise State spread and Over/Under analysis

This line opened at Colorado -1.5 but has since moved to -2.5 across the board. The total has been on a roller coaster ride, opening at 140.5, moving down to 137.5, and then riding back up to 140.5 at the time of this writing. 

The Buffaloes are dead even at 17-17 ATS this year but have been hot lately, going 4-1 ATS across its last five games. Boise State is slightly profitable at 15-13-1 ATS and has also been hot, going 6-2 ATS across its last eight games. 

Colorado profiles as more of an offensive team since it has elite shooting numbers and attacks the rim, ranking second in Haslametrics’ near-proximity attempt rate. The Broncos, on the other hand, are known for their defense and hold teams to 67.5 ppg defensively. 

Both teams like to clean the glass — the Buffs rank ninth in rebounding percentage (55.6%) while Boise State isn’t far behind at 17th (54.4%). If you’re looking at the total, both teams have trended to the Over — Colorado is 20-14 O/U while the Broncos are 16-14 O/U. 

Colorado vs Boise State betting trend to know

Boise State is 0-9 straight up all-time in the NCAA Tournament. Find more college basketball betting trends for Colorado vs. Boise State.

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