Kansas State vs Iowa Predictions, Picks, and Odds: Wildcats Hang Tough in Iowa

Two major conference programs that saw their March Madness odds hopes evaporate as the bubble tightened in the season's final days will face off in the opening round of the NIT Bracket as the Kansas State Wildcats visit the Iowa Hawkeyes on Tuesday night. 

Kansas State lost six of its last 10 games down the stretch and lost to the Iowa State Cyclones in the quarterfinals of the Big 12 Tournament. Iowa lost its last two games, including a 90-78 loss to Ohio State in the second round of the Big Ten Tournament. 

These two teams have similar profiles — at least in terms of team strength — to many of the bubble teams in the NCAA Tournament, which should make this a competitive matchup. We’ll break it down for bettors in our free college basketball picks and March Madness picks for Kansas State vs. Iowa on March 19.

Kansas State vs Iowa best odds

Kansas State vs Iowa picks and predictions

At one point, the Kansas State Wildcats and Iowa Hawkeyes were squarely on the bubble to make the March Madness field, but slow finishes to the season and a surprisingly high number of bid thieves winning conference tournaments left both teams well on the outside on Selection Sunday. 

That’s not to say these teams aren’t good enough to go dancing, just that their profiles didn’t match up against other hopefuls. On the court, these are two quality teams that should be able to compete with anyone in the NIT field. 

Tonight’s game is a matchup of styles. Iowa is a fast-paced, offense-focused squad that often came up short on defense this year. Four different Hawkeyes are scoring in double figures, led by junior forward Payton Sandfort (16.3 points per game). This team is averaging an impressive 82.9 points per game, but is also allowing opponents to average 79.0 points, one of the worst figures in the country.

Kansas State doesn’t have that offensive prowess, but they do play elite defense. Opponents are shooting 40.8% from the field against the Wildcats and only 30.7% from beyond the arc.

While they can’t score like the Hawkeyes, their triple threat of Tylor Perry (15.5 ppg), Arthur Kaluma (14.7 ppg), and Cam Carter (14.6 ppg) is enough to outscore opponents more often than not.

By virtue of being the higher seed tonight, Iowa gets to host this NIT matchup. The Hawkeyes went 13-4 at home this season, so it makes sense that they’d be favored in this matchup. The question is how big that spread should be.

I don’t see much reason to think Iowa is better than Kansas State in a vacuum. The Hawkeyes do profile slightly better in most rating systems, but the Wildcats have much better wins, having victories over Baylor, Kansas, Iowa State, and BYU. Overall, they’re more battle-tested than Iowa thanks to the gauntlet that is the Big 12 schedule. 

Iowa hasn’t been as successful against elite competition this year. The Hawkeyes have lost six games to teams that ended up with Top-3 seeds in the NCAA Tournament and their best win was likely an overtime home victory against Wisconsin last month.

Come tournament time, those wins — and losses — say a lot about what teams are capable of in tough games against quality opponents. Kansas State has the pedigree of winning these games, and the Wildcats also play far better defense than Iowa, something that will be of added importance in the postseason. I’m taking Kansas State to cover tonight.

My best bet: Kansas State +5.5 (-115 at FanDuel)

Kansas State vs Iowa same-game parlay

Kansas State +5.5

Over 156.5

Payton Sandfort Over 17.5 points

+424 at FanDuel

I like Kansas State to cover the spread tonight and that’s largely because I believe the Wildcats will score at will against the Hawkeyes.

With that in mind, I’m adding a bet on the Over to my SGP. Both teams have trended toward the Over as of late and Iowa has gone Over this total in four of its past five games. 

With that many points in play, I also like Sandford to hit the Over on his scoring total of 17.5. While that’s above his season average of 16.3 ppg, he's scored at least 18 points in eight of his last nine games. Kansas State has a solid defensive scheme, but Sandfort should continue his role as Iowa’s primary scorer and get Over his number tonight. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Kansas State vs Iowa spread and Over/Under analysis

Iowa opened tonight’s game as a 6.5-point favorite at home. That number has come down, with the majority of books posting Iowa -5 as their main spread. However, you can find Iowa -5.5 — with a discount on the Hawkeyes at -105 — or get +100 on Kansas State +4.5 by shopping around.

Iowa struggled against the spread this season, posting a 12-19-1 ATS record overall. Kansas State fared a bit better at 17-16 ATS.

These teams are evenly matched enough that this line looks a little generous to Iowa even with just a quick look at the numbers. Considering how these teams have played against strong opponents this season, Kansas State looks even better in this matchup.

The total tonight opened at a flat 157 points. There hasn’t been much movement, but you'll find various sites with Over/Under numbers ranging from 156.5 to 157.5. No matter what number you prefer, you can get -110 on either side of the market.

Kansas State has played perfectly even against the total this year, going 16-16-1 O/U. Iowa has been an Over team all year, with the Over holding a 21-11 advantage.

The Wildcats generally play lower-scoring games, but they've shown the ability to win shootouts, playing to totals of 157 or higher in three of their last seven games.

They’ve also hit the Over in five of their last seven. Meanwhile, Iowa has hit the Over in four of its last five, with all four of those well above tonight’s total. I’m leaning towards the Over.

Kansas State vs Iowa betting trend to know

Iowa is 4-10-1 ATS in its last 15 games overall. Find more college basketball betting trends for Kansas State vs. Iowa.

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