Duquesne vs VCU Predictions, Picks, and Odds: Defenses Dominate A-10 Final

The Atlantic 10 Conference Final isn’t the one we thought we’d see when the conference tournament odds were revealed, but the Duquesne Dukes and VCU Rams should give us a terrific show this afternoon.

Duquesne finished their season in sixth place in the A-10, and the college basketball odds list the team with the seventh-longest winning streak in college hoops as a short underdog. 

VCU ended its campaign fourth on the A-10 table, but the Rams are riding a three-game winning streak and are just one win away from earning an automatic bid into next week’s Big Dance. 

With March Madness odds on the board, can the Dukes pull off the upset? Join me as I examine this Atlantic 10 Tournament final matchup with free college basketball picks for Duquesne vs. VCU on Sunday, March 17. 

Duquesne vs VCU best odds

Duquesne vs VCU picks and predictions

The Duquesne Dukes are one of the hottest teams in the nation. They have a seven-game winning streak on the line and a two-game winning streak over the VCU Rams.

Beating the Rams is something the Dukes haven’t done much of until this season. Duquesne is just 3-7 over their previous 10 meetings against Sunday’s foe, but they seem to have figured something out and have defeated the Rams in three of their previous four meetings.

One of the improvements has been on the defensive end of the floor. The Dukes boast the fourth-best scoring defense in the A-10; they’ve surrendered its season average of 67 points or fewer in six of their past seven games on a healthy diet of blocks, steals, and 13.2 forced turnovers they’ve turned into an average of 15.5 points.

The Dukes must rely on its stop unit as they sometimes struggle to score the basketball. They average 71.2 points per game, which they’ve only cleared thrice in their last 10 ball games. 

Duquesne isn’t a good shooting side from anywhere, but they boast a 1.1 assist-to-turnover ratio, which helps them get some wide-open looks from downtown. They must make a few triples today; otherwise, their season is over.

That’s because VCU is a similar team to the Dukes — the Rams block shots and clean the glass. Their defense has allowed 72 points or fewer in six of their previous 10, and like Duquesne, they sometimes struggle to score the rock.

Sunday’s A-10 finale is ending Under the total.

The respective defenses from both programs have been spectacular this week — they’ve fueled each program's run to the final, and they’ll be a challenge for our offensive units to conquer today.

Fatigue is going to impact this afternoon's tilt. Four games in five nights is a tall order, and the legs will begin getting heavy, which won’t help each team's inconsistent shooters vs. each programs perimeter shot-alterers who are long and very good. Then add the pressure of playing for a spot in the Big Dance.

Look for two defensive-minded programs to do their thing. They’ll be aided by the fatigue of playing four games in five days, and the pressure of making their March Madness dreams and meeting two robust defenses will make scoring buckets difficult.  

The Under is 4-1-0 in the Dukes' last five primarily because of their defense, and the Rams are 4-1-0 to the Under in their past five as well. Expect a slow-dragging, hard-fought battle with this one ending Under the number.

My best bet: Under 127.5 (-115 at BetMGM)

Duquesne vs VCU same-game parlay

Under 126.5

Duquesne 1H moneyline

Duquesne moneyline

+426 at FanDuel

This three-leg same-game parlay would be a nice way to end the week and correlates well with my best bet.

BetMGM didn’t offer an SGP for this matchup at the time of writing, so I went with FanDuel and the Under 126.5. It’s one point less than our best bet but it’s a good number, mainly because I expect Duquesne to continue its defensive dominance against a shaky Rams offense. 

The Dukes are playing confidently, have won seven straight — including both regular season head-to-head meetings — and boast a winning first-half margin of +4 over their last three games. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Duquesne vs VCU spread and Over/Under analysis

Duquesne opened anywhere from a +1.5 to a +2.5 underdog with varying prices and little movement. 

That was surprising, as the Dukes have been hot. They came into this tourney riding a four-game winning streak, including a 10-point away victory over VCU. Its defense came up big in their eight-point victory against Dayton and went 6-5-0 ATS as the away team.

VCU is 7-2-0 ATS over their nine away matchups but failed to cover as favorites in both head-to-head meetings this season.

BetMGM opened Over 125.5 (-115), but money drove the number to its industry-best at 127.5 (-110). The rest of the shops have the Over at its best number (126.5 at FanDuel).

Duquesne vs VCU betting trend to know

The Under is 3-0-1 in the Dukes' last four games as an underdog. Find more college basketball betting trends for Duquesne vs. VCU.

Duquesne vs VCU game info

Duquesne vs VCU key injuries

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