The Denver Pioneers will try to complete an unlikely run to March Madness when they face the South Dakota State Jackrabbits in tonight's Summit League Tournament final.
Denver ended the regular season as the conference's No. 7 seed but has won two close games to make it to the tournament final. South Dakota State was the presumptive favorite to win the league title and has won seven straight heading into tonight’s game. Despite Denver's Cinderella run, the Pioneers are double-digit underdogs in the college basketball odds.
The Pioneers might be able to score enough to keep up with the Jackrabbits, but their defense has been a major issue all season. We’ll figure out if tonight will be any different in our free college basketball picks and predictions for Denver vs. South Dakota State on Tuesday, March 12.
And as Power 6 conference play gets underway, don't forget to also check out the latest conference tournament odds.
Denver vs South Dakota State best odds
Denver vs South Dakota State picks and predictions
Regardless of how tonight’s game plays out, this has been an unexpected journey for the Denver Pioneers. Denver came into the conference tournament with a sub-.500 record and little hope of capturing a league title. A win over the Kansas City Roos was a true upset, while its semifinal victory against the Nebraska-Omaha Mavericks was more of a toss-up.
Those two wins put Denver in a game where it is a clear underdog. The South Dakota State Jackrabbits have been the class of the Summit League all year long, putting up a 12-4 conference record and dominating the conference opposition down the stretch.
The Jackrabbits aren’t particularly great at anything, but they can play some offense. South Dakota State is averaging 76.8 points per game, led by junior guard Zeke Mayo (18.9 ppg). While it would be a significant underdog against any higher seed it plays in the first round of March Madness, South Dakota State would still pose a threat and an interesting matchup for most teams.
The same can’t be said for Denver. Make no mistake, the Pioneers can score points, as their 81.4 ppg ranks among the highest numbers in the country. But that hasn’t meant much, as they haven’t been able to stop anyone from putting up even bigger numbers in response. Opponents are averaging 80.6 ppg against Denver, one of the worst marks in the entire country. And with a relatively weak schedule, KenPom rates the Pioneers defense as 352nd in the nation out of 362 Division I teams.
Incredibly, Denver held two straight opponents to Under 65 points to start the Summit League tournament. However, neither Kansas City nor Nebraska-Omaha has much of an offense, ranking 265th and 218th in offensive efficiency, respectively at KenPom. And outside of those two games, the Pioneers have allowed at least 80 points in 10 of their past 12 games.
The previous contests show exactly what kind of game we can expect tonight. In their first meeting at Denver, the Pioneers pulled an upset, beating South Dakota State 99-80. In the return matchup, the Jackrabbits turned the tables with a 97-70 win.
Both of those games went Over the listed total. Yet sportsbooks — reacting to short-term trends over the last couple of weeks — have actually lowered tonight’s total to just 155.5 points. This is far too low given the history between these teams and the complete lack of defense played on Denver’s part. I’m taking the Over again tonight.
My best bet: Over 155.5 (-110 at Caesars)
Denver vs South Dakota State same-game parlay
Over 155.5
South Dakota State -9.5
Zeke Mayo Over 19.5 points
I expect scoring on both sides, but the Jackrabbits should get the best of their opportunities against a flimsy Denver defense. That’s why I’m throwing in a bet on South Dakota State to cover the 9.5-point spread for my same-game parlay. This will be a game with plenty of variance, which makes a big win more likely, and I can’t see the Jackrabbits losing this one with an NCAA Tournament bid on the line.
Finally, let’s take Mayo to hit the Over at 19.5 points. Mayo has scored at least 19 points in seven of his last nine games and did so in both games against Denver as well. If this game hits the scoring mark I expect, Mayo should have plenty of opportunities to get to 20+ points tonight.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Denver vs South Dakota State spread and Over/Under analysis
South Dakota State opened tonight’s game as a nine-point favorite. The consensus spread has moved to 9.5 points, with South Dakota State -10 also the main line at some books.
The Jackrabbits have been good against the spread this year, posting a 17-13 ATS record for bettors. Denver hasn’t fared quite as well, only going 13-15-1 ATS on the season.
I considered making South Dakota State on the spread my best bet of the night. However, the fact that Denver found success in one of their two games against the Jackrabbits this year gave me just enough pause to go to the Over, which seems like a better pick. Still, South Dakota State is the far better team and should be able to win by double digits.
The total tonight opened at 160.5. The consensus Over/Under has come down precipitously to 155.5, with some books offering a discounted -105 on the Under.
South Dakota State has played close to the total this year, with the Over posting a slim 15-14-1 edge in its games. The Pioneers have a clear trend, posting an 18-9-2 record for the Over this season.
I understand that Denver has played better defense against inferior offensive teams for all of two games, but that’s not nearly enough for me to buy into tonight's rapidly decreasing total. The Pioneers can’t play defense and the Jackrabbits have a ton of scoring options, including a legitimate top-tier scorer in Mayo.
Denver vs South Dakota State betting trend to know
The Over is 3-0 in the last three meetings between Denver and South Dakota State. Find more college basketball betting trends for Denver vs. South Dakota State.
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Denver vs South Dakota State game info
| Location: | Denny Sanford Premier Center, Sioux Falls, SD |
| Date: | Tuesday, March 12, 2024 |
| Tip-off: | 9:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | CBSSN |
Denver vs South Dakota State opening odds
- Moneyline (ML): Denver +315 | South Dakota State -410
- Against the spread (ATS): Denver +8.5 (-110) | South Dakota State -8.5 (-110)
- Over/Under (O/U): Over 163.5 (-110) | Under 163.5 (-110)
Odds courtesy of FanDuel
Denver vs South Dakota State key injuries
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