Arkansas State vs James Madison Predictions, Picks, and Odds: Seeing Red Wolves

The James Madison Dukes enter Monday’s Sun Belt Conference Tournament final riding the nation's longest winning streak with an eye toward an automatic bid in the 2024 NCAA Tournament and boosting their March Madness odds.

The conference tournament odds reflect this as the Dukes are heavy favorites against an Arkansas State Red Wolves program coming off a massive upset over No. 1 seed Appalachian State. 

Can Arkansas State end the nation's longest winning streak? Join me as I examine this Sun Belt Conference Tournament final matchup with free college basketball picks for Arkansas State and James Madison on Monday, March 11.

Arkansas State vs James Madison best odds

Arkansas State vs James Madison picks and predictions

The James Madison Dukes are riding high and why not? They boast the nation's longest winning streak, and Monday’s opponent defeated the only Sun Belt Conference program to defeat them twice.

Standing in their way is an Arkansas State Red Wolves program that’s won eight of its last 10 and is coming off a huge win over regular-season champ App State. Arkansas State only punches its ticket to the Big Dance by defeating the preseason conference favorite, and it's playing good ball on both ends of the floor.

Arkansas State has won eight of 10, and its offense, which KenPom ranks as the most efficient in the Sun Belt Conference, has been impressive this season. Equally impressive is the 9-1-0 against-the-spread mark over its past 10, which includes a +5 cover at home in its only meeting with James Madison. 

The Red Wolves defense has been their Achilles heel, but they’ve allowed fewer than 65 points in both tournament games and surrendered fewer than their 77.1-point average in seven of their last 10. 

Additionally, Arkansas State locked down the Dukes in the second half of their previous meeting. If they can somehow slow the James Madison offense for 40 minutes — a tall order as JMU is one of the nation's top-scoring programs — they have a shot at covering the number and maybe winning this game outright.

James Madison is ripe for the picking. They’ve won a dozen straight but covered the number in only four of 10, and they were fortunate to defeat Arkansas State in Jonesboro. The Dukes blew a 13-point halftime lead, and if not for the Red Wolves' slow offensive start, the outcome might have been different, but they know they can score with James Madison and understand they have some success against the Dukes on the defensive end of the floor.

Finally, all the pressure is on JMU. It has the nation's longest winning streak and was the preseason favorite to win the conference. That didn’t happen, and now it probably must win this game to stamp its NCAA Tournament passport. James Madison failed to cover in four of its last five and now meets an Arkansas State program brimming with confidence, with a big offense and improving defense that has covered the spread in nine of their last 10. Look for a Red Wolves group playing with house money to take all the Dukes' punches, throw a few of their own, and cover the number.

My best bet: Arkansas State +6.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

Arkansas State vs James Madison same-game parlay

Arkansas State +6.5

Under 155

+244 at DraftKings

A total of 155 points may not seem enough for tonight's contest between two high-scoring programs, but it's more than enough. Tonight’s tilt is likely the last ballgame of the season for one of these programs, and there will be nerves, excitement, and pressure, which always affects the total.

Arkansas State's previous 10 games' Over/Under record was 2-7-1. The Red Wolves were also 3-11-0 to the Under as the underdog this season. James Madison boasts an Over/Under record of 5-5-0 in their last 10, and the Dukes were 13-16-0 to the Under as the favorite. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Arkansas State vs James Madison spread and Over/Under analysis

This is a big number for a tournament championship game, but that’s what DraftKings hung on the board. It's a good guess how long that number will remain, but the 155 (-110) might be as high as it gets, as we already see totals of 153.5 (-110) to 154.5 (-110). 

Arkansas State had an Over/Under record of 9-11-0 against Sun Belt Conference foes, and James Madison conference matchups ended 9-12-0 to the Under. All signs point to the Under and 155 is a nice number for this contest.

Conversely, Over bettors will find 153.5 and -110 is a good price for the best number on the board across the US betting landscape. 

DraftKings has the best number for Arkansas State backers at +6.5 (-110), but we’re beginning to see the Red Wolves as low as +5.5 (-110), which James Madison supporters can find at bet365. 

Arkansas State has looked impressive and was 13-6-1 ATS in conference matchups, while James Madison is the hottest team in the land but was 10-11-0 ATS in conference tilts. 

Arkansas State vs James Madison betting trend to know

Arkansas State is 9-1-0 ATS over its last 10 games. Find more college basketball betting trends for Arkansas State vs. James Madison.

Arkansas State vs James Madison game info

Arkansas State vs James Madison key injuries

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