March in the NBA can be an odd month to bet. The season has dragged on long enough; it’s time to reach the playoffs.
For the Denver Nuggets, their scorching month-plus has them in position to pick and choose which games to care about. Going 15-2 since the All-Star Break will have that impact.
When it comes to the latest NBA odds, the Phoenix Suns do not have that luxury. They need every win they can get, seemingly just as likely to escape the Play-In Tournament entirely as they are to fall into its lower bracket.
That dichotomy of desperation creates a unique chance at some value in our free NBA picks as we preview Suns vs. Nuggets on Wednesday, March 27.
Suns vs Nuggets predictions
There is an easy argument to be made that the Denver Nuggets should treat tonight as a warm-up for their Friday meeting with the Minnesota Timberwolves.
That latter game is not only against a top-three team in the West, but it will also play a role in Western Conference tiebreakers. The Nuggets subtly need to win Friday, while tonight would have minimal impact on the standings.
While the Nuggets should come hot out of the gates, they may ease up in the second half as they look ahead to their game with the T-Wolves. Mike Malone should stretch his bench’s minutes in the second half tonight, then turn back to his starters for a fourth-quarter win.
Meanwhile, the Phoenix Suns are on the verge of desperation. Charitably, perhaps they were looking ahead on Monday when they lost to San Antonio, despite the Spurs not having Victor Wembanyama. That mistake left the Suns tied for seventh in the West, but trailing in the tiebreakers with the Kings and thus currently standing at eighth.
Suffice it to say, this “Big Three” era for Phoenix is on the edge of disaster.
Slipping tonight could put the Suns just a game outside of the 9-10 Play-In game. Considering Bradley Beal is questionable, the Suns likely will not win tonight, and a 7-point spread argues just that.
However, Frank Vogel's unit will play through the final whistle, while the Nuggets actively should not. Pit those two thoughts against each other and enjoy a significant possible payout, significant enough to reduce the stake to just half a unit.
My best bet: Nuggets first-half -4 / Suns +7 (+490 at DraftKings)
Suns vs Nuggets same-game parlay
Nuggets first half -4
Suns +7
Devin Booker Over 26.5 points
Devin Booker knows the sense of urgency developing for the Suns. This is the second roster construct he has spearheaded in Phoenix, and while the Chris Paul version should not be deemed a failure, the current rendition could spiral quickly.
Booker has poured in 30, 32, and 36 points in his last three games, shooting an efficient 56.7% from the field. Denver is excellent defensively, but if the Nuggets ease up in the second half, Booker should be the Phoenix player to turn up the dial and keep his contention hopes alive and well.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Suns vs Nuggets odds and trends
Suns vs Nuggets opening odds
- Spread: Phoenix +6.5 | Denver -6.5
- Moneyline: Phoenix +225 | Denver -275
- Over/Under: Over 224.5 | Under 224.5
Suns vs Nuggets spread and Over/Under analysis
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Phoenix opened as a 6.5-point underdog on Tuesday evening, a number that peaked on Wednesday afternoon at +7.5 before settling at +7.
- The total opened at 224.5 on Tuesday afternoon and climbed all of Wednesday morning to reach 227.5, a reflection of both these offenses playing measurably better than their defenses in March. Denver’s offensive rating has been No. 3 in the NBA since March 1, with its defensive rating sitting at No. 11. Phoenix’s have been No. 10 and 16, respectively.
- The Nuggets have cleared the Over in their last four games by an average of 10.25 points.
Suns vs Nuggets betting trend to know
The Nuggets have covered the fourth-quarter spread in just 38 of their last 85 games. Find more NBA betting trends for Suns vs. Nuggets.
Suns vs Nuggets game info
| Location: | Ball Arena, Denver, CO |
| Date: | Wednesday, March 27, 2024 |
| Tip-off: | 10:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
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