The Denver Nuggets are fighting tooth and nail to secure the Western Conference's top seed, and even after rattling off five straight wins, they still find themselves tied for the top spot.
On Sunday afternoon, they'll travel to take on the Dallas Mavericks, who are in a playoff race of their own, trying to claw their way out of the play-in tournament seeds.
They rattled off a four-game win streak before falling short against the Thunder on Thursday without Luka Doncic, a game-time decision for today's game.
Continue reading our free NBA picks and predictions for Nuggets vs. Mavericks on Sunday, March 17.
Nuggets vs Mavericks odds
Nuggets vs Mavericks predictions
Many championship-winning teams find it hard to repeat excellence in the following season as teams typically exert themselves more as a way to properly measure themselves against the reigning champions. And despite that added challenge, the Denver Nuggets have excelled.
They possess the seventh-best mark in offensive rating and 10th-best defensive rating, making them just one of four teams to rank inside the Top 10 in both. That excellence has led to a record that's tied for the best in the Western Conference in addition to being second in the NBA overall.
The Dallas Mavericks are no slouches either as they rank sixth offensively on the back of an MVP-caliber season from Luka Doncic. The bad news, however, is that Doncic is a game-time decision for Sunday's matchup after suffering a hamstring injury earlier in the week that sidelined him for Thursday's game.
Sunday's 4-point spread suggests Doncic will be playing, seeing as the Mavs closed as 6-point and 8-point underdogs in their two prior matchups. Both of those games were on the road while Sunday's will be played at home. A simple home-court flip would explain the spread discrepancy.
Nevertheless, neither outcome in terms of Doncic's availability helps the Mavs. Obviously, without Doncic, the Mavericks would be much worse off — and much larger underdogs as a result — but having Luka try to carry his typical usage running around on a bum hamstring could be even worse.
My best bet: Nuggets -4 (-108 at DraftKings)
Nuggets vs Mavericks same-game parlay
Nuggets -4
Kyrie Irving Over 25.5 points
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope Over 1.5 made threes
Whether Luka plays in a limited capacity or misses the game altogether, the best place to look when building out an SGP would be Kyrie Irving's scoring.
In Thursday's Luka-less game against the Thunder, Irving scored 36 points against one of the league's best defenses. With that performance, Kyrie's averaged 38.8 points in his last four games without Doncic. In his only game against Denver this year, he scored 22 points despite Luka shooting the ball 24 times.
If Doncic chooses to play, I'd imagine Jason Kidd will have guard Kentavious Caldwell-Pope as opposed to Jamal Murray, Denver's primary ball handler.
KCP may have a field day from deep if that's the case, as Doncic's already questionable defense would be even further hindered. And even if Luka were entirely healthy, the Mavs have failed to guard shooting guards on the perimeter all season, allowing the second-most 3-pointers made per game this year to the position.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Nuggets vs Mavericks spread and Over/Under analysis
Dallas has gone 37-30 against the spread this season, good for a 55.2% cover rate that ranks sixth on the season. As home underdogs, however, they have gone just 5-7 ATS which would rank ninth-last in the league.
The Nuggets have gone 31-34-2 ATS this year, with that 47.7% cover rate putting them in the bottom third of teams this year. As road favorites, they've gone just 11-13 (45.8%), but they've now covered in four of their last five overall and in 10 of their last 13 games.
The Mavs have gone an even 33-33-1 on totals this year. At home, they've gone 20-15 to the Under, good for an eighth-highest Under rate in that split this season.
Sunday's total of 229.5 is on the lower end of totals Dallas has seen this year, but they've played an even 7-7 in totals at or below that mark.
Denver has gone a staggering 41-26 towards the Under this year, good for a 61.2% Under rate that ranks third on the season. When they've been on the road away from the elevation of Denver, they've gone 64.7% to the Under (22-12).
Nuggets vs Mavericks betting trend to know
The Nuggets have cashed the moneyline in 64 of their last 88 games (+26.10 units / 9% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Nuggets vs. Mavericks.
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Nuggets vs Mavericks game info
| Location: | American Airlines Arena, Dallas, TX |
| Date: | Sunday, March 17, 2024 |
| Tip-off: | 3:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ABC |
Nuggets vs Mavericks latest injuries
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