Mavericks vs Thunder Odds, Picks, and Predictions Tonight: OKC Handles Luka-Less Mavs

The Dallas Mavericks currently possess the Western Conference's eighth seed but are just a half-game back from the sixth seed and would love to escape the horror of playing in the Play-In tournament. However, they'll be proceeding without Luka Doncic tonight.  

On Thursday night, they'll travel to take on the Oklahoma City Thunder who are in a seed battle themselves, currently sitting just a half-game back from the Nuggets for the conference's top seed.

Can the Luka-less Mavericks stun the Thunder and keep the sixth seed within reach or will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander & Co. take care of business as they have all season long? 

Continue reading for free NBA picks and predictions for Mavs vs.Thunder on Thursday, March 14.

Mavericks vs Thunder odds

Mavericks vs Thunder predictions

It's rare to be as good as the Oklahoma City Thunder have been on both ends of the court. They're not just one of four teams to rank inside the Top 10 in offensive and defensive rating, they're just one of two to rank inside the Top 5 of both as well. From a net rating perspective, they're the NBA's second-best team behind the Celtics. 

The Dallas Mavericks are no slouches on offense (sixth in offensive rating) but have seen their defense plummet over the years under Jason Kidd from ranking seventh in defensive rating in his first year to this year's mark of 21st. The trend of diminishing returns on defense was the same when Kidd was with the Bucks, suggesting these defensive woes are here to stay.

Kidd typically wants his players to aggressively close out on the perimeter, but teams have just learned to pass the ball out until an open shot presents itself. And the aggressive closeouts typically leave fewer men inside the paint to grab rebounds, which is why the Mavs rank fourth worst in offensive rebounds allowed per game.

He previously cited a lack of size, but the additions of P.J. Washington and Daniel Gafford should have helped on that front. Since their acquisitions in early February, Dallas has improved to "just" being 10th-worst in offensive rebounds allowed but their defense has been more or less the same (21st in defensive rating).

Making things harder tonight is the absence of Luka Doncic, who will sit out tonight's game with hamstring soreness. Given his absence and who they play tonight, it should come as no surprise that the Mavs are large underdogs tonight. And in games where they've been dogs of 5+ points, they've gone an abysmal 1-7 against the spread.

My best bet: Thunder -10.5 (-108 at Pinnacle) 

Mavericks vs Thunder same-game parlay

Thunder -11

Kyrie Irving Over 28.5 points

PJ Washington Under 2.5 made threes

+550 at DraftKings

This isn't groundbreaking stuff by any means, but the immediate first place to look in a game without Luka Doncic would be the scoring coming from Kyrie Irving. In his last three games without Luka, Irving has managed to score 42, 33, and 44 points.

Now granted, the Thunder are a highly proficient team on defense but in his only game against the Thunder as a member of the Mavericks, Irving managed to put up 25 points in a blowout where he played just 33 minutes and Doncic scored 32.

On the other hand, one player who may have had their market over-adjust in the wake of Doncic's absence is P.J. Washington. His prop for made threes is set at a whopping 2.5, a mark he's managed to hit just three times in his 14 games thus far as a Maverick. He's made 3+ threes in just 17 of his 58 games (29.3%) this year as a whole.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Mavericks vs Thunder spread and Over/Under analysis

Dallas has been one of the better teams against the spread this year, with its 36-30 record good for a 54.6% cover rate that is fifth-best in the league. Despite that, the Mavericks are in the bottom third of the league in terms of covering as a road underdog, having gone just 6-8 (42.9%) — the ninth-worst team in that split.

And as mentioned previously, they've been horrendous as mid to large-sized underdogs: they've gone a whopping 1-7 ATS when giving 5+ points. The Thunder have been even better against the spread this year, with their 39-25-1 ATS mark netting the second-best cover rate on the year at 60.9%.

As home favorites, that rate increases even further to 67.9% (19-9), and as double-digit favorites, they have gone 9-6 ATS.

The Mavs have played totals relatively evenly, having gone 34-32 to the Under this year. They've notably played 17-13-1 to the Over this year, good for an Over rate of 57.6% that is tied for the sixth-highest mark over that span.  

Tonight's total of 234.5 is a bit on the lower end for Dallas. The Mavericks have gone 18-12 to the Over in games at or below that mark.

OKC has gone 34-28-3 (54.8%) to the Over this year, trailing just the Jazz in their rate of Overs this season. As home favorites, however, things seem to slow down — the Thunder have gone 14-12-2 to the Under in 2024.

However, in games at or above tonight's total of 234.5, they have gone 21-10-3 to the Over.

Mavericks vs Thunder betting trend to know

The Thunder have covered the spread in 42 of their last 69 games (+13.40 units / 18% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Mavericks vs. Thunder.

Mavericks vs Thunder game info

Mavericks vs Thunder latest injuries

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