One of just two games on the NBA odds board tonight is a non-conference clash between the Milwaukee Bucks and New Orleans Pelicans.
The Bucks tip off a three-game road swing in the Big Easy and winning away from Milwaukee has been anything but (easy), with the team going 17-18 straight up on the road and 15-20 against the spread.
The Bucks have some bigger names on the injury report, but as of this morning it appears Giannis Antetokounmpo (hamstring) and Khris Middleton (ankle) will be in action. As for NOLA, it continues to battle without star forward Brandon Ingram, who has been out the past three games with a bruised knee.
I run down the spread and Over/Under total for this East vs. West war and give my best NBA picks for the Bucks vs. Pelicans on March 28.
Bucks vs Pelicans predictions
My best bet: Jonas Valanciunas Over 8.5 Points (+102 at FanDuel)
New Orleans Pelicans center Jonas Valanciunas logged only 11 minutes in the loss to Oklahoma City with head coach Willie Green benching him in place of Larry Lance Jr. He was getting cooked by Thunder big Chet Holmgren, whose quickness gave the slower Valanciunas problems on defense.
Before that brief outing, Valanciunas had logged extra minutes in the first two games with Brandon Ingram out of action. He played 22 minutes, finished 4-for-4 from the field for eight points against Miami, and had 20 minutes of floor time against Detroit, scoring 13 points on 6-for-10 shooting.
Even in limited action against OKC, Valanciunas scored six points on 2-for-4 shooting in only 11 minutes before getting the hook. That stat line is influencing his scoring prop for tonight’s home stand with the Milwaukee Bucks.
Valanciunas’ point totals in the past three games have been 8.5, 9.5, and 10.5, as the market reacted to Ingram’s absence and Jonas’ uptick in minutes. However, Thursday’s number is back down to 8.5 with the Over priced as high as +102.
The 6-foot-11 veteran is averaging 12.5 points in 24.1 minutes on the season but has had a quiet March, scoring only 7.4 points with his minutes dropping to 18.4 per game this month.
While the Thunder and Bucks both ranked among the quicker tempos in the NBA, Oklahoma City leans into that pace more in transition (highest frequency of transition in the NBA). Milwaukee, on the other hand, is anchored in more halfcourt offense and running the ball through the post — a pace that fits the lumber legs of Valanciunas better.
Most player projections have Valanciunas logging between 21 and 24 minutes against Milwaukee, and those forecasts call for between 8.2 and 13.1 points with my number coming out just shy of 11 points tonight. Based on that, the Over 8.5 points should be price more in the -186 range.
Given his 11-minute outing vs. OKC last time wasn’t injury related and those minute and touches are still there with Ingram out, Valanciunas continues to have a higher ceiling against Milwaukee tonight.
Bucks vs Pelicans same-game parlay
Jonas Valanciunas Over 8.5 points
Khris Middleton Over 1.5 made threes
Under 224
Valanciunas’ point prop has dipped based on a bad matchup in his last game that slimmed his floor time. With Ingram out, his ceiling for minutes and field goals is higher than the market makes out.
Middleton is expected to play tonight (ankle) and player projections have him leaning toward two triples. Middleton has made two or more 3-pointers in three of his last four outings and NOLA allows the sixth most triples per game in the NBA.
The Bucks have gone Under in 15 of their last 20 road games while the Pelicans are 4-12 O/U in their last 16 games overall.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Bucks vs Pelicans odds and trends
Bucks vs Pelicans opening odds
- Spread: Milwaukee -1.5 | New Orleans +1.5
- Moneyline: Milwaukee -125 | New Orleans +105
- Over/Under: Over 225.5 | Under 225.5
Bucks vs Pelicans spread and Over/Under analysis
• With Antetokounmpo and Middleton showing up on the injury report, the Bucks opened as 1.5-point road chalk. However, once updates hit that those two stars are probable for tonight, the line moved to Milwaukee -2.5.
• Tonight’s total hit the board as low as 223.5 points and has jumped to 224.5 points, as of Thursday morning. Milwaukee is 14-20-1 O/U on the road but enters this game on a 6-2-1 O/U stretch in its last nine games. New Orleans is 16-18 O/U at home and has played Under the total in 12 of its previous 16 contests.
• Covers Consensus shows a slight 51% lean toward the Pels and the points, as of Thursday morning. As for the Over/Under total, our data reports 65% of early picks taking the Over in New Orleans tonight.
Bucks vs Pelicans betting trend to know
The Bucks have gone Under in 15 of their last 20 away games (+9.50 Units). Find more NBA betting trends for Bucks vs. Pelicans.
Bucks vs Pelicans game info
| Location: | Smoothie King Center, New Orleans, LA |
| Date: | Thursday, March 28, 2024 |
| Tip-off: | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Bally Sports New Orleans, WMLW The M |
Not intended for use in MA.
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