The New York Yankees and Cleveland Guardians will begin an enticing three-game series on Saturday afternoon in Ohio.
Both of these teams have started their seasons quite well. Each will enter this matchup with just three losses on the season and sit at the top of their division. New York will come into this one off a bad loss against the Miami Marlins, while the Guardians will enter here with two of three wins over the lowly Chicago White Sox.
Read on for my free MLB Picks for Yankees vs Guardians predictions on Saturday, April 13.
Yankees vs Guardians prediction
My best bet
Steven Kwan Over 1.5 total bases (-105 at DraftKings)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
Both of these pitchers induce little confidence. Each will arrive at this game with an above-average ERA and a few impressive underlying metrics. With that in mind, I lean toward the Over, and my projections also do. However, there's more value elsewhere in this game, and I'm looking at the prop market for that.
My best bet is targeting Steven Kwan over 1.5 bases at DraftKings.
Kwan has had a ton of historical success against Clarke Schmidt, the righty who takes the mound tonight for the New York Yankees. In his six career plate appearances against him, he's hitting .600, but overall, there are reasons to think this is a favorable matchup for Kwan.
I mentioned that .600 batting average as a good highlight of Kwan's success against Schmidt, but what's come along with that is an expected batting average of over .400. That means the balls he's put into play are quality hits and ones that should produce results similar to the ones he's gotten. That makes sense, too. Schmidt's most significant issue is that he doesn't miss many bats with a K rate that is regularly near the bottom of the league. That's bad news against Kwan, one of the best contact hitters in baseball.
The pitch mix is also favorable for him. Schmidt employs a breaking ball-heavy approach with the sinker, making him the majority of his arsenal. Last season, Kwan had the second-highest run value against the sinker and the highest expected batting average among Guardians players. He's started this year on a very similar trajectory.
Back Kwan to again take advantage of a favorable matchup against a pitcher he has historically dominated.
Yankees vs Guardians same-game parlay (SGP)
Steven Kwan Over 1.5 total bases
Over 8.5
I'm pairing Kwan with the total to go Over 8.5.
As I mentioned before, Schmidt is a pitch-to-contact type of thrower. Over the last few seasons, Cleveland has hit these types of pitchers hard with their great patience at the plate. Conversely, Carlos Carrasco will take the mound for the Guardians and has routinely had issues with the hard-hit ball over the last few seasons. The Yankees have ranked in the top three of baseball in that same timeframe, including the start of this young season.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Yankees vs Guardians odds
Yankees vs Guardians live odds
Yankees vs Guardians opening odds
- Run line: New York -1.5 (+118) | Cleveland +1.5 (-142)
- Moneyline: New York -142 | Cleveland +120
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-115) | Under 8.5 (-105)
Yankees vs Guardians spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Yankees have owned this series lately, winning four of the last five head-to-head meetings.
- Even though they've often been inflated lines, a Yankees moneyline bettor has still seen some solid profit backing New York, being up 4.5 units on the season. The Guardians have been similarly profitable, with bettors up 4.07 units this season.
- The Under was a profitable bet when these two met. The total has gone in that direction in eight of the last ten head-to-head meetings between the two.
Yankees vs Guardians trend
The Yankees are 4-1 in the last five head-to-head meetings against the Guardians. Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs. Guardians
Yankees vs Guardians game info
| Location: | Progressive Field, Cleveland, OH |
| Date: | Saturday, 4-13-2024 |
| First pitch: | 12:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | YES, Bally Sports Great Lakes |
| Yankees starting pitcher: | Clarke Schmidt (0-0, 4.66 ERA) |
| Guardians starting pitcher: | Carlos Carrasco (0-0, 4.50 ERA) |
Yankees vs Guardians latest injuries
Yankees vs Guardians weather
Not intended for use in MA.
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