Today’s MLB Prop Picks and Best Bets: These Are the Prop Picks You're Looking For

Prop bet #1: Lance's lightsaber

Lance Lynn has a long leash for a 36-year-old pitcher and has a dream strikeout matchup vs. the White Sox this afternoon. With Covers’ prop projections sitting at 5.9 Ks and Lynn’s Over 5.5 punchouts at plus money, the right hander’s Over was the first prop put into the account this morning.

The White Sox are an easy team to target for Ks as they are striking out at 24% on the year. Lynn has logged 30+ innings already this season and has struck out roughly a batter per frame. With a pitch projection of 98 pitches, per THE BAT, and a pitcher-friendly umpire in CB Bucknor behind the dish, six innings in six Ks is a very probable outcome. Add in the +110 price tag, and this is a strong Over play today.

Lynn is coming off a four-game low 87 pitches, but bettors should expect a fuller workload today. He’s gone over this strikeout number in three of his last five starts, and facing a former team that he spent his previous three seasons is also a motivating factor. 

Lance Lynn prop: Over 5.5 strikeouts (+110 at bet365)

Prop bet #2: Taking Tobias to Tatooine

Pricing young pitchers is never an easy thing for books, and that’s the case today with Milwaukee’s Tobias Myers, who is paying a hefty +125 for five or more Ks vs. the Cubs at Wrigley with the wind blowing slightly in.

The 25-year-old right-hander has earned the No. 5 spot in the Milwaukee Brewers rotation for now as he has gone two straight starts of 15 outs and picked up nine Ks along the way with just one free pass.

He ran into trouble in his last start and went just 64 pitches, but still got 15 outs and had five strikeouts vs. the Yankees. THE BAT is projecting 88 pitches, which is a lot closer to his debut game where he threw 83 pitches. Covers’ MLB prop projections are showing 4.8 strikeouts today.

The Cubs strike out at a Top 11 rate vs. righties, and Myers’ secondary stuff can miss bats. His fastball sits low-to-mid 90s, but he still struck out 168 batters in 130+ innings back in 2022 at Double-A. 

He pitched in four games at Triple-A this year, ringing up 22 batters over 16+ frames. If he goes 80+ pitches, this +125 Over 4.5 might be the steal of the day when you consider the plus-money odds.   

Tobias Myers prop: Over 4.5 strikeouts (+125 at bet365)

Prop bet #3: Luke Slaterwalker

My favorite betting edge in baseball is finding platoon batters facing short-leashed left-handed pitchers. The reason for this is there is a great chance at just two plate appearances before the team yanks the lefty starter and brings in the right-handed reliever. Keeping an eye on this angle, bettors can find great plus-money Under odds, which aren’t accounting for the pinch-hit risk.

THE BAT has San Francisco’s Austin Slater as one of the bigger pinch-hit risks you can get at 73% on the day. The No. 7 hitter is facing lefty Ranger Suarez, who isn’t an extreme short-leash starter but isn’t a guy who pushes 95 pitches often. He has also been elite this year, having given up just 21 hits over 41 innings.

Even if the Phillies stay with Suarez, Slater will have a tough matchup vs. a lefty who ranks second in baseball in hits/9 at 4.6.

Slater is just hitting .100 on the year to begin with, has just three plate appearances vs. right-handed pitching, and has completed just one of his eight starts this year. At +140 to go hitless in what could be just two at-bats is gold, Jerry, gold!

Please get the start, Austin. If he doesn’t, the best a void anyway, making it a low risk. 

Austin Slater  prop: Under 0.5 hits (+140 at bet365)