Would you look at that? The Toronto Blue Jays have now won three series in a row and they’ll go for a sweep of the first-place New York Yankees in a matinee matchup April 17 at Rogers Centre.
The Jays haven taken the first two games thanks to some impressive starting pitching and are hoping Kevin Gausman can continue that trend. But the Toronto ace has not looked like himself, and that will play into my MLB picks.
Find out how in my Yankees vs. Blue Jays predictions below.
Yankees vs Blue Jays prediction
My best bet
Over 8.5 (-106 at PROLINE+)
My analysis
The Toronto Blue Jays have been able to take the first two games of this important series against the New York Yankees thanks to some terrific starting pitching performances from Chris Bassitt and Yusei Kikuchi.
If I told you last season Kevin Gausman was taking the ball for the series finale you might like the Jays’ chances to pull off the sweep. However, the Toronto ace missed a big chunk of Spring Training due to shoulder fatigue and just hasn’t looked right since.
Gausman has surrendered 12 earned runs on 16 hits over his first three starts which total just 9 1/3 innings, the longest of which was just 4 1/3. Gausman is sporting a grotesque 10.13 expected ERA, a .334 opponent expected batting average, and a .643 opponent expected slugging percentage.
The Yankees haven’t brought their hitting shoes to Toronto, but this is still a very potent lineup, many of which who have big numbers against Gausman. N.Y. counters with Marcus Stroman. The former Blue Jay will be comfortable at Rogers Centre and has been a solid rotation piece for the Yanks so far.
Stroman, who limits hard but not all contact, has pitched to a 3.68 xERA which includes him shutting out the Jays on three hits over six innings back on April 5. However, he followed that up by allowing four runs on four hits over five innings to the Miami Marlins of all teams.
Stroman is also still giving up a .235 xBA to opponents which is just above league average (56th percentile). So, if the Jays — who have been doing a better job at the plate the last few series — can be patient and not try to crush everything Stroman throws, they should be able to tag him for a couple of runs.
Mix in some questionable bullpen work from both teams so far this season and this has me looking at the Over 8.5 in this matchup.
Blue Jays star player prop
My best bet
Justin Turner Over 0.5 RBI (+150 at PROLINE+)
Stay hot Justin Turner. One day after Turner’s six-game hitting streak came to an end he went right out and started another one. The Blue Jays slugger came through for us yesterday, driving in a run with a sac fly on a day where went 1-for-3. And at +150 there is some value in him to do it again.
Turner has been the best hitter on Toronto at this point in the season and is now hitting .360 with an 1.012 OPS. His .315 expected batting average is in the Top 10% of all MLB hitters this season.
He also leads the Blue Jays with nine runs batted in and I like him to drive in another here today. The designated hitter is one of the few guys with experience facing Stroman, going 4-for-12 with two doubles in his career against him.
I’m betting Turner stays locked in today and gets us another RBI.
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Yankees vs Blue Jays odds
Yankees vs Blue Jays live odds
Yankees vs Blue Jays opening odds
- Run line: New York +1.5 (-210) | Toronto -1.5 (+175)
- Moneyline: New York (-105) | Toronto (-115)
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 | Under 8.5
Yankees vs Blue Jays spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Blue Jays opened the finale of this three-game set as slight -115 home favorites and that's about where they remain as of early Wednesday.
- This will be the third straight game the Blue Jays have been favored over the first-place Yankees.
- The total hit the board at 8.5 and has seen little movement to this point.
- The Yankees and Blue Jays have both been solid under bets so far this season with New York going 6-11 O/U and Toronto going 8-10 O.U.
Yankees vs Blue Jays trend
The Yankees have covered the run line in 14 of their last 20 away games for +9.00 Units and a 35% ROI. Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs. Blue Jays
Yankees vs Blue Jays game info
| Location: | Rogers Centre, Toronto, ON |
| Date: | Wednesday, 4-17-2024 |
| First pitch: | 3:07 p.m. ET |
| TV: | MLB Network |
| Yankees starting pitcher: | Marcus Stroman (1-1, 2.12 ERA) |
| Blue Jays starting pitcher: | Kevin Gausman (0-2, 11.57 ERA) |
Yankees vs Blue Jays latest injuries
Yankees vs Blue Jays weather
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