The Philadelphia Phillies are on the brink, at Game 6 of the World Series needing a win to keep their season alive. The Houston Astros took two of three from the Phillies in Philadelphia, and now, here we are.
Will Valdez finish off the Phillies tonight? We dive into Houston's starter with our Framber Valdez prop picks. Can Zack Wheeler bounce back from a rough start in his last outing?
Find that out in our MLB props picks for Game 6, and check out our Astros vs. Phillies picks and predictions for more.
Phillies vs Astros prop picks
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Phillies vs Astros Game 6 props
Vall to play for
I think this series is over. A big part of winning tonight will be because of who they have on the mound, and it makes for a significant bet on Framber Valdez to record a win.
We have to answer the question if Valdez can go the length required to record a win. The answer is a resounding yes. Valdez has pitched over this amount in every game this postseason. Even when he’s gotten in some tight situations, manager Dusty Baker has shown some trust in him to get out of them.
His last outing came in Game 2. Then he went six innings, gave up one earned run, and struck out nine batters. I see no reason why he can’t replicate a similar outing, and if he does that, that will be enough to cash this one.
Valdez is a bad matchup for the Phillies. There’s a reason why he’s given up just one earned run in over 12 innings against them. The sinker is his preferred pitch and one he uses to have a league-leading ground ball rate. The Phillies will field a lineup today with only two players with positive run values against that pitch.
He can work reasonably comfortably throughout the significant parts of the lineup, and that’s a massive edge in a potential clinching game. I’m not sure Valdez gives up a single run, and it’s hard for me to envision the Astros scoreless for five innings or more. This is one of the best values of the day.
Framber Valdez Prop: To record a win (+250 at Draftkings)
Going down swinging
We’ve taken juicy numbers on Phillies hitters throughout this series and we’re going to do that again. Kyle Schwarber is simply not going down without registering a hit. My projections have this priced at around -180, which gives me plenty of an edge.
I talked about how Valdez’s sinker vs. Phillies hitters is a significant advantage tonight. That advantage doesn’t hold against Schwarber, though. He’s one of the better sinker hitters on the Phillies’ roster. Schwarber has the best run value against sinkers on the roster and the second-best batting average against them.
This number is priced incorrectly, and I’m more than happy to take the Phillies’ emotional leader to get a hit at it. If it doesn’t come in the form of the sinker, it may come off of a fastball. Valdez will be wary of Schwarber’s sinker-hitting ability, and if he goes away from that pitch, that’ll play directly in his hands.
Kyle Schwarber Prop: To record a hit (-140)
Wheelerin' and dealin'
We’ve saved the best value of the game for last. Zack Wheeler's Over 5.5 strikeouts should not be plus money. My projections have it priced at -125, which makes it the best value on the entire prop board.
Wheeler has faced the Astros once already this postseason and was pounded. It was pretty unusual. He was knocked out after surrendering four earned runs in five innings. The very nature of that bad start makes me a fan of him bouncing back here.
Unlike in his previous start, Wheeler should be able to keep Houston off-balance with his off-speed pitch. The slider, in particular, is the key here. It has produced a 24.4% whiff rate and has been Wheeler’s primary put-away pitch.
If he can mix his pitches up correctly, he should have no problem going Over this number. The Astros will start four players with an above-average strikeout rate against the slider. I love this play tonight.
Zack Wheeler Prop: Over 5.5 strikeouts (+124 at FanDuel)
