The Boston Red Sox face off against the Seattle Mariners in tonight's MLB season opener.
The Mariners missed the postseason by just one game last season, but expectations remain high this year due to one of the top rotations in the majors. Meanwhile, Boston is in the middle of a rebuild and will be happy to stay competitive in the talented AL East.
MLB odds have the Mariners as -165 home favorites for this Opening Day clash, with the Over/Under listed at 7.5. Here are my best free MLB picks and predictions for Mariners vs. Red Sox on March 28.
Red Sox vs Mariners odds
Red Sox vs Mariners predictions
While Rafael Devers and Trevor Story are reliable bats, the rest of the Boston Red Sox lineup is filled with question marks. There are tons of left-handed hitters and much will be expected of Triston Casas, Jarren Duran, Enmanuel Valdez, and Wilyer Abreu.
While Tyler O'Neill was brought in to provide power, he possesses an ugly batting average of .229 while slugging just .397 over the last two seasons. The Red Sox also struggled to hit away from Fenway last year, averaging 4.49 runs per game with an OPS of .700 on the road.
Boston will be in trouble tonight when it takes the plate at a pitcher-friendly T-Mobile Park with Seattle Mariners ace Luis Castillo on the mound. The M's right-hander is a three-time All-Star and boasted a sterling 3.09 ERA with a 1.00 WHIP at home last year.
When it comes to hitting the ball, it might be addition by subtraction for the Mariners. They had one of the worst strikeout rates in the majors last year but said goodbye to high strikeout hitters like Eugenio Suarez, Jarred Kelenic, and Teoscar Hernández in the offseason. The M's also have a young lineup, but Julio Rodriguez, Cal Raleigh, and J.P. Crawford are all further along than Boston's inexperienced batters and have proved themselves at this level.
They also face an inconsistent starter in Brayan Bello, who rarely makes batters miss. The 24-year-old Bello made strides in 2023 but still finished with a 4.54 FIP and a 1.34 WHIP. While he managed to cut down on his walks, he also got hit hard, sitting in the bottom 15th percentile in hard-hit rate and bottom 40th percentile in average exit velocity.
With the M's boasting a significant edge with their starting pitcher and bullpen, back them at home tonight.
My best bet: Mariners moneyline (-162 at DraftKings)
Red Sox vs Mariners same-game parlay
Mariners moneyline
Under 7.5
J.P. Crawford 2+ total bases
While the Mariners got rid of some of their biggest strikeout victims, they didn't exactly replace them with dangerous hitters. The Mariners had a batting average of just .235 at home last season, so don't expect them to light it up this evening. Bello also had a strong spring training and is a solid innings-eater.
Crawford is coming off a breakout season where he slashed .266/,380/.438. The shortstop upped that slugging percentage to .463 against right-handed pitchers and surprisingly hit better at home than away, slugging .450 at T-Mobile Park. The M's shortstop also does a good job of making contact with the sinkers and changeups, which are a big part of Bello's arsenal.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Red Sox vs Mariners moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- This line opened with the Mariners at -180 and money has come in on the visitors, slimming the ML to -162.
- The total opened at 7.5 and hasn't seen much movement, with the Under juiced to -120 at most books.
- The Mariners are 10-2 in Castillo's last 12 starts and the two defeats during that span came against strong Astros and Rangers teams.
- Oddsmakers set Boston's win total at 79.5, while Seattle comes in with an O/U of 87.5.
Trend to know
The Under has cashed in eight of Boston's last 10 away games (+5.80 Units / 52% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Red Sox vs. Mariners.
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Red Sox vs Mariners game info
| Location: | T-Mobile Park, Seattle, WA |
| Date: | Thursday, March 28, 2024 |
| First pitch: | 10:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NESN, Root Sports |
Starting pitchers
Brayan Bello (0-0, 0.00 ERA): After a rough rookie season in 2022, Bello showed improvement last year, going 12-11 with a 4.24 ERA and an OBA of .270. The 24-year-old throws with impressive velocity but prefers to use off-speed pitches and force a high amount of ground balls.
Luis Castillo (0-0, 0.00 ERA): The hard-throwing ace went 14-9 last year while pitching to a 3.54 ERA and mowing down 219 batters in 197 innings. Castillo relies heavily on his four-seamer, with opposing batters having an expected batting average of just .196 against that offering in 2023.
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