Today’s MLB Prop Picks and Best Bets: Rockies Can't Get Anything By Sanchez

Prop bet #1: Live and let Lively

Ben Lively’s odds for Under 3.5 strikeouts were discussed this morning on the Covers’ MLB prop picks show, but with the price still available as of writing, it’s worth highlighting again as a solid +EV play.

Lively is coming off the IL and will be making his first start with the Cleveland Guardians tonight. He threw just 55 pitches in his rehab outing so today’s pitch count should be around 70 pitches. The right hander made two starts in the minors and only managed four strikeouts across eight-plus innings, so there is a short leash and he isn’t missing many bats. He missed time with an illness so stamina is also a concern for the starter.

The Covers’ prop projections have him for just 14.02 outs and 3.4 strikeouts.

Ben Lively prop: Under 3.5 strikeouts (+120 at DraftKings)

Prop bet #2: A Littell bird told me

Zack Littell’s last start went 99 pitches, but he recorded just 13 outs vs. the Halos who he sees again tonight. When pitchers see hitters for a second time over such a short period, the advantage swings to the batters. Because of that, Zack Littell’s odds of -120 for Under 17.5 outs looks like a great play.

Littell has made it to 18 outs just once over three starts, and although he’s allowed just two earned runs on the season, his control issues are pumping up his pitch count. He had three walks vs. the Angels in his last start and just 16% of his pitches were strikes looking and swings and misses. 

Littell doesn’t have great strikeout stuff and isn’t anything more than a K-per-inning pitcher. His numbers right now aren’t sustainable and with the Covers’ prop projections sitting at 15.3 outs, that gives plenty of room for the Under 17.5 to hit.

Reid Detmers’ Under 17.5 outs also projects well at +115 with a projection of 15.9 outs. The duo Under 17.5 pays +280 at bet365 which is pretty bang-on true odds.

The biggest thing not priced into this line is Littell just saw this lineup one start ago. The market is certainly correcting though as some books are as short as -135. 

Zack Littell  prop: Under 17.5 outs (-120 at bet365)

Prop bet #3: Rockie-a-bye baby

It’s time to fade the Rockies who head into Philadelphia, are facing a lefty in Christopher Sanchez, and have just one run on 17 hits across their last 27 innings. This is still one of the worst offenses in baseball and vs. lefties, it still ranks as a Bottom-5 offense in most metrics.

Sanchez has allowed 15 hits over 15+ innings but still doesn’t have the longest leash and projects for just 89 pitches, giving value to his Unders. Christopher Sanchez's odds for Under 4.5 hits allowed at plus money is my favorite of the bunch, especially at +120.

Sanchez gave up just four hits vs. Pittsburgh in his last start and Ranger Suarez threw a complete-game shutout vs. the Rockies yesterday while giving up just seven hits over 27 outs. Aaron Nola gave up just four hits in the opening game of the series on Monday.

This is a Colorado offense that has just one run over its last 27 innings with only 17 total hits. Sanchez’s Under 1.5 earned runs at the same price also projects well but I’m rolling with the Under 4.5 hits vs. this weak offense. 

Christopher Sanchez  prop: Under 4.5 hits allowed (+120 at bet365)