The San Diego Padres and Milwaukee Brewers will finish a three-game series at American Family Field on Wednesday afternoon.
The Brewers will be looking to avoid being swept for the first time this season. The Padres have taken back-to-back games in this series, and Milwaukee has scored exactly three runs in both matchups. The two straight wins in this series have continued a nice streak for San Diego, who has won five of its last six and will enter today with an 11-9 record.
Read on for my free MLB picks and Padres vs. Brewers predictions for Wednesday, April 17.
Padres vs Brewers prediction
My best bet
Padres moneyline (-118 at FanDuel)
My analysis
Last night was a poor evening for the Milwaukee Brewers.
Christian Yelich was sent to the 15-day DL after the game with lower back issues, and that doesn’t even mention what happened on the field. Wade Miley looked abysmal in his abbreviated first start, allowing four runs in three innings. To make matters worse, he took a nice shot to the kneecap from a Manny Machado line drive. This extends a bit of a rough stretch for Milwaukee, and it’s one that I don’t see them coming out of here. I’ll back the San Diego Padres moneyline as my best bet.
We’ll likely see platoon efforts from the Milwaukee pitchers, so making any concrete statements about the pitching matchups that San Diego will see is dicey at best. However, this Padres offense has been rolling over the last week, and it’s pretty much hit any pitching it’s seen.
San Diego will come into this game having scored six or more runs in five of its last six games. That leads the MLB in that stretch. Given that we know Freddy Peralta won’t see the mound for the Brew Crew today, there aren’t many pitching options that can be thrown out that scare me.
I don’t have much faith in the Brewers hitting, as the Padres pitch well. Losing Yelich for a little over a week is a big blow to this offense, and this matchup isn’t exactly favorable. The majority of the lineup has yet to face Michael King, but they don’t profile well.
King has struggled in two starts this season, but some of it is due to bad luck, and some of it to his walk rate. It’s soared from 8% last season to just over 14% in two starts this year. That seems more of a product of randomness than anything and something you’d expect him to clean up in short order. King will deliver a heavy dosage of sinkers, a pitch this Milwaukee team has yet to hit well. Without Yelich, only two players in the lineup today hit over the league average against it last season, and the numbers have aligned closely with that this year.
Give me San Diego here in a game that's essentially a coin-flip in the MLB odds. The pitching matchup is, at best, a wash for Milwaukee, and one of these teams has played significantly better than the other lately.
Padres vs Brewers same-game parlay (SGP)
Padres moneyline
Over 8.5
While I like King’s matchup against the Brewers today, Milwaukee still can scratch out a few runs against a pitcher who has such a significant issue with the hard-hit ball.
On the other side of things, I’m backing this Padres offense with confidence at the moment. It’s worth noting that the Milwaukee bullpen isn’t exactly the most rested amongst their top arms.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Padres vs Brewers odds
Padres vs Brewers live odds
Padres vs Brewers opening odds
- Run line: San Diego -1.5 | Milwaukee +1.5
- Moneyline: San Diego -110 | Milwaukee -110
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 | Under 8.5
Padres vs Brewers spread and Over/Under analysis
- Historically, this series has been high-scoring, and betting that angle has been profitable. The Over has gone 8-2 over the last 10 head-to-head meetings between the two teams.
- The Padres have been an excellent proposition for bettors this season. Backing San Diego would have netted you +4.74 units on the season. The Brewers have been less profitable, but the bettors are still up on the season at +.32 units.
- The Brewers have been a great team to back early in games over the past year. Bettors are up +10.58 units on Milwaukee’s first five moneyline over the past 42 games.
Padres vs Brewers trend
The Padres have hit the moneyline in 20 of their last 27 games (+12.45 Units / 30% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Padres vs. Brewers
Padres vs Brewers game info
| Location: | American Family Field, Milwaukee, WI |
| Date: | Wednesday, 4-17-2024 |
| First pitch: | 1:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | SDPA, BSWI |
| Padres starting pitcher: | Michael King (2-0, 4.19 ERA) |
| Brewers starting pitcher: | TBD (X-X, X.XX ERA) |
Padres vs Brewers latest injuries
Padres vs Brewers weather
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