Home Run Props and Odds for Tonight: FanDuel Dinger Tuesday Picks

It's a battle of the top home-run hitting teams in baseball when the Orioles visit the Yankees tonight. But don't overlook the potential for taters when the Rays take on the Twins on Dinger Tuesday.

Eric Rosales - Betting Analyst at Covers.com
Eric Rosales • Betting Analyst
Jun 18, 2024 • 10:05 ET • 4 min read
Correa Twins MLB
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

Tuesdays are for betting on home run props.

The unofficial-official day to bet on MLB player props for homers is the middle of the week — with several sportsbooks offering specific betting promotions related to long balls.

However, none are as popular as FanDuel's Dinger Tuesday, where for two different games, you place a $25 bet on a player to hit a home run and get $5 in bonus bets for every total home run hit in that game (regardless of who hits 'em).

I'll break down the best games to target, including a starting pitcher breakdown and best player values, for Dinger Tuesday tonight, June 18.

Best home run props and odds for FanDuel Dinger Tuesday

Orioles at Yankees (Yankee Stadium, 7:05 p.m. ET)
(All stats last 30 days)

Pitcher HR/9 HR/FB% FB%
Orioles Albert Suarez (RHP) 0.2 1.8 43.7
Yankees Nestor Cortes (LHP) 1.2 9.4 50.8

If there was ever a matchup to target for this promo, it must be Orioles-Yankees. These teams are 1-2 at the top of the home runs hit list, and Yankee Stadium is tied for the third-most long balls surrendered this season.

O's starter Albert Suarez has shuffled between the starting rotation and the bullpen, so he’ll be making his eighth start of the year. He’s given up just one long ball on the season, but he’s also never pitched in the Bronx against the Yankees in his career.

Yankees lefty Nestor Cortes has been getting tagged with big-flys all season, and he’s served up five dingers in his last four starts and 12 on the year.

He wasn’t taken deep in his lone start against the O’s this year, but he was still roughed up for eight hits and four earned runs in six innings of work. Enough good looks and he’s bound to serve one up.

Hitters to target - Orioles
* = best price available

  • Gunnar Henderson, LH (+370) - Was one of four Orioles to go deep in that rubber-match showdown with the Phillies. He’s second behind Judge in the home-run race, and has a career-best 31.4% HR/FB rate.
  • *Anthony Santander, SH (+320) - Was a wrecking ball against the Phillies, hitting three home runs in the series and driving in six. He’s hitting .283 against lefties this year with four home runs.

Hitters to target - Yankees

  • *Aaron Judge, RH (+200) - After going without a dinger in four straight, Judge broke out with a solo jack last time out against the Red Sox. He’s yet to face Suarez in his career, but Judge is battling .308 with 21 home runs against righties this year.
  • *Giancarlo Stanton, RH (+290) - He’s the lone Yankee big bopper that’s had a look at Suarez before, but it’s just been one at-bat. After drilling a couple of homers against the Royals in the previous series, he was shut out in the most recent set against the BoSox. Stanton has a healthy 44.3% FB rate, the third-highest of his career.
  • *Juan Soto, LH (+330) - He may have just one home run in his last 10, but Soto is offering up a 33.6% FB rate, which is currently the third-best number in his career.

Best betting value: Aaron Judge (+200 at FanDuel)

FanDuel Dinger Tuesday

Place a wager of $25 or more on a player to hit a home run bet, get $5 for every homer hit in that game — available for two different games!

Rays at Twins (Target Field, 7:40 p.m. ET)
(All stats last 30 days)

Pitcher HR/9 HR/FB% FB%
Rays Aaron Civale (LHP/RHP) 1.7 15.7 41.2
Twins Pablo Lopez (LHP/RHP) 1.7 16.1 40.5

They’re two of the Top 4 teams that have allowed the most home runs in baseball, and the pitching matchup is just as fruitful.

Rays starter Aaron Civale is currently tied with four pitchers for most home runs allowed this season with 14. He’s so prolific at getting taken deep, he’s only kept it in the park in two of 13 starts this season.

Civale will be pitching against Minnesota’s Pablo Lopez, one of the other pitchers who’s allowed 14 long balls on the year. Lopez has been taken yard in six straight starts – a total of eight times – and has served up a dinger in 11 of 14 appearances.

Hitters to target - Rays
* = best price available

  • *Isaac Paredes, RH (+520) - Tampa’s leading home run hitter on the year is also one of only two current Rays that has taken Lopez deep. He’s hitting .290 against righties on the year with all but one of his 10 dingers. He has a 46.8% FB rate on the season.
  • *Randy Arozarena, RH (+560) - Picked up a longball in Tampa's last series against the Braves. He’s sporting a career-best 43.5% FB rate, and six of his nine homers have come off righties.
  • *Jose Siri, RH (+600) - The outfielder went yard against the Braves last game for his eighth homer of the season. Siri has a strong HR/FB of 16.7% and an FB rate of 44.4%.

Hitters to target - Twins

  • *Byron Buxton, RH (+350) - Despite his struggles this season, Civale has only surrendered two home runs to the current Twins roster – and both of them have been to Buxton. Buxton enters this one with hits in seven of his last eight, which includes his fourth home run on the season.
  • Carlos Correa, RH (+450) - He’s just a day removed from a 2-homer effort against the Athletics, a series where he went deep three times and drove in seven runs. Correa’s hitting .311 against righties with four home runs and 25 RBI.

Best betting value: Carlos Correa (+450 at FanDuel)

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