The Baltimore Orioles will look to rebound after getting swept by the Astros when they welcome the Cleveland Guardians on June 24.
That will be easier said than done against Tanner Bibee, who my Guardians vs. Orioles predictions fancy to give up little runs in tonight's tilt. Find out why in the MLB picks below.
Guardians vs Orioles prediction
My best bet
Tanner Bibee Under 2.5 earned runs allowed (-130 at BetMGM)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
Is this Baltimore Orioles lineup one of the best in baseball? Absolutely, maybe the best, but Tanner Bibee is well-equipped to slow them down. The best asset of Bibee's game is his ability to induce soft contact.
Bibee ranks in the Top 20% of baseball in hard-hit rate and average exit velocity. Even better, his breaking ball stuff has been elite. The slider and changeup have produced a batting average below .200 and whiff rates above 35%. That's significant against the O's, given their roster sees some slash numbers drop when facing a breaking-ball pitcher.
Outside of the ability to produce soft contact, Bibee will have success producing whiffs. It's another strength in his game and can be used today. This goes back to the breaking ball conversation. In most scenarios, the O's have four or five players with a whiff rate above 30% against Bibee's best two pitches.
Fading Baltimore's offense can be a scary endeavour. However, the strengths in Bibee's pitching align perfectly with either the weaknesses of the Orioles or nullifying their strengths. I'm on this best bet with confidence, given a nearly 20% projected edge against this number, albeit that may be bullish.
Guardians vs Orioles same-game parlay (SGP)
Bibee Under 2.5 earned runs allowed
Jordan Westburg Under 1.5 bases
Anthony Santander to get a hit
Jordan Westburg leads all Baltimore hitters in whiff rate and has been horrific this season against the breaking ball, as best indicated by a .129 batting average against the changeup.
I expect him to get three looks against Bibee, given I have him having success and going deep into this game. Thus, I expect him to struggle. That same logic holds for Anthony Santander. I think the price of him getting a hit is a bit cheap today considering he doesn't swing and miss much.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Guardians vs Orioles odds
Guardians vs Orioles live odds
Guardians vs Orioles opening odds
- Run line: Cleveland -1.5 (+142) | Baltimore +1.5 (-172)
- Moneyline: Cleveland -112 | Baltimore -104
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-110) | Under 8.5 (-110)
Guardians vs Orioles spread and Over/Under analysis
- Odds have flipped in this game. At the open, we saw Clevlanda as a favorite, but action has made Baltimore the favorite since then.
- This has been a highly competitive head-to-head matchup recently, with the last ten games going precisely 5-5 for each team: the total has gone 7-3 to the Under in that period.
- Baltimore is coming off being swept by the Houston Astros and has gone 4-6 over its last 10 games.
- Cleveland has been steady in its last 10 games with six wins, yielding bettors a profit of +1.3 units.
Guardians vs Orioles trend
The Guardians have hit the first five innings team total Over in 48 of their last 75 games (+18.15 Units / 20% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Guardians vs. Orioles
Guardians vs Orioles game info
| Location: | Oriole Park at Camden Yards, Baltimore, MD |
| Date: | Monday, 6-24-2024 |
| First pitch: | 6:35 p.m. ET |
| TV: | MASN, Bally Sports Great Lakes |
| Guardians starting pitcher: | Tanner Bibee (5-2, 3.65 ERA) |
| Orioles starting pitcher: | Cade Povich (0-1, 3.94 ERA) |
Guardians vs Orioles latest injuries
Guardians vs Orioles weather
Not intended for use in MA.
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