The Chicago Cubs and Arizona Diamondbacks wrap up a three-game series at Chase Field on Wednesday night. The Cubs are 10-7 while the Diamondbacks are 9-9 and look to replicate their shocking success from last year when they advanced to the World Series.
These teams have split the first two games in this series and MLB odds are close for the finale with the D-Backs coming in as slim -120 home favorites. Here are my best Cubs vs. Diamondbacks predictions and MLB picks for April 17.
Cubs vs Diamondbacks prediction
My best bet
Over 9 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
These teams combined for a whopping 26 hits and 23 runs last night and all signs point towards another high-scoring contest at Chase Field.
Both teams are sending shaky sophomores to the hill with the Chicago Cubs starting Jordan Wicks and the Arizona Diamondbacks responding with Brandon Pfaadt. Wicks has a 5.68 ERA with a .286 OBA in three starts this year and he posted a 4.42 ERA in 34 2/3 innings as a rookie last season.
Pfaadt pitched a gem at home in his season debut against a weak Rockies lineup but he's struggled in his last two outings, surrendering 15 hits and 11 earned runs across 11 2/3 innings. As a rookie last year, he pitched to a 5.72 ERA with an OBA of .282 across 18 starts although he did show improvement in the postseason.
The D-backs are fourth in the majors in scoring with 5.72 runs per game while ranking ninth in OPS (.741). While they are around the MLB average when it comes to Statcast analytics, they've been raking against southpaws like Wicks, leading the majors with a .309 batting average.
The Cubs are sixth in the majors in runs per game (5.65) and seventh in OPS (.748). They also have impressive analytics, ranking third in the majors in exit velocity, sixth in barrel rate, and eighth in hard-hit rate.
Despite the absence of top hitter Seiya Suzuki, the Cubbies still picked up eight extra-base hits last night and they should do their part to cash the Over today.
Cubs vs Diamondbacks same-game parlay (SGP)
Over 8.5
Christian Walker Over 1.5 total bases
Jordan Wicks over 4.5 strikeouts
While Walker has a modest slugging percentage of .418 this season, he's been hitting the ball well and should start to see positive regression. He's in the Top 10th percentile in hard-hit rate and barrel rate, and his expected slugging percentage sits at a more impressive .474.
That's more in line with Walker's .497 slugging percentage last year when he clubbed 33 homers and 36 doubles. He slugged an incredible .575 against southpaws last season and he's been making good contact against lefties this year as well (.320).
While Wicks has been shaky this season, he's been generating plenty of whiffs. He's in the Top 20th percentile of all pitchers in chase rate, whiff rate, and strikeout rate. He's also fanned 6+ batters in all three starts.
Taking the Over on the game total and Walker's total bases while also betting the Over on Wicks' strikeouts prop creates a nice multiplier for this SGP.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Cubs vs Diamondbacks odds
Cubs vs Diamondbacks live odds
Cubs vs Diamondbacks opening odds
- Run line: Chicago +1.5 (-200) | Arizona -1.5 (+165)
- Moneyline: Chicago -105 | Arizona -115
- Over/Under: Over 9.5 (-110) | Under 9.5 (-110)
Cubs vs Diamondbacks spread and Over/Under analysis
- The D-backs opened as -115 favorites for this game and early money came in on them, shifting the line to -125 before buyback on the Cubs brought it back to -120.
- This total opened at 9.5 and despite the high-scoring contest last night, money has come in on the Under, slimming the O/U to 9 as of 10 a.m. ET.
- Wicks and Pfaadt have been inconsistent but their xERA numbers (4.55 for Wicks and 4.03 for Pfaadt) are significantly better than their actual ERA.
- The Diamondbacks are 5-2 in their last seven games and their 12-11 extra innings victory last night snapped a three-game winning streak for the Cubs.
Cubs vs Diamondbacks trend
The Cubs have hit the first-five team total Over in 38 of their last 66 games (+9.21 units / 12% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Cubs vs. Diamondbacks
Cubs vs Diamondbacks game info
| Location: | Chase Field, Phoenix, AZ |
| Date: | Wednesday, 4-17-2024 |
| First pitch: | 3:40 p.m. ET |
| TV: | MARQ, ARID |
| Cubs starting pitcher: | Jordan Wicks (0-2, 5.68 ERA) |
| Diamondbacks starting pitcher: | Brandon Pfaadt (1-0, 6.48 ERA) |
Cubs vs Diamondbacks latest injuries
Cubs vs Diamondbacks weather
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