The fourth and final game of this NL series gets underway on June 23, with the San Diego Padres hosting the Milwaukee Brewers at Petco Park.
My Brewers vs. Padres prediction is bullish on the favorite, primarily due to the pitching matchup. Read on for my MLB picks for Sunday, June 23.
Brewers vs Padres prediction
My best bet
Padres -1.5 (+160 at FanDuel)
My analysis
The San Diego Padres hand the ball to right hander Michael King, and he should be a good candidate to back. King is 5-4 with a 3.49 ERA and 1.27 WHIP through 16 appearances on the mound.
His underlying metrics are just as strong, ranking in the top half of the league in xERA, xBA, average exit velocity, barrel rate, and hard-hit rate. King has been particularly dialed in lately, allowing three or fewer runs over his past six starts while going 2-0 with a commanding 2.16 ERA and 1.11 WHIP.
This success is likely to continue against the Milwaukee Brewers, a team King sports a 1.42 ERA and 0.71 WHIP against through two career meetings. Meanwhile, RHP Tobias Myers takes the mound for Milwaukee.
Although he has seen a good deal of success thus far, the rookie is primed for regression. Myers ranks in the 36th percentile or lower in xERA, average exit velocity, and barrel rate.
I also trust the Padres’ pen more than the Brewers’, considering the former ranks higher in both FIP and xFIP this year. Not only does the pitching edge go to San Diego, but it also paces Milwaukee in hits per game, BA, SLG, OPS, and homers.
Considering all of these variables, it's worth taking a shot on the Padres’ run line at +160.
Brewers vs Padres same-game parlay (SGP)
Padres -1.5
Over 8
Luis Arraez to get a hit
I already discussed how much I like San Diego above, but this should still be a high-scoring game. Both lineups rank in the top half of the league in runs scored per game, hits per game, HRs, and stolen bases.
Since I'm backing both a high-scoring game as well as a Padres victory, a highly correlated outcome would be for Luis Arraez to record a hit in the process. Perhaps the best contact hitter in baseball, Arraez has recorded at least one hit in seven of his past 11 games.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Brewers vs Padres odds
Brewers vs Padres live odds
Brewers vs Padres opening odds
- Run line: Milwaukee -1.5 (+168) | San Diego +1.5 (-205)
- Moneyline: Milwaukee +102 | San Diego -120
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 (-124) | Under 7.5 (+102)
Brewers vs Padres spread and Over/Under analysis
- San Diego opened as a -120 favorite and has since been bet up to -130.
- This line movement makes sense, given the Padres are pretty much stronger in every category across the board in this matchup.
- The total opened at 7.5 and has subsequently moved to eight.
- Due to all the aforementioned variables, I think the only direction this line goes is up.
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Brewers vs Padres trend
The Padres have won each of their past four games, with three of those victories coming by at least a two-run margin. Find more MLB betting trends for Brewers vs. Padres
Brewers vs Padres game info
| Location: | Petco Park, San Diego, CA |
| Date: | Sunday, 6-23-2024 |
| First pitch: | 4:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Bally Sports Wisconsin, SDPA |
| Brewers starting pitcher: | Tobias Myers (4-2, 3.26 ERA) |
| Padres starting pitcher: | Michael King (5-4, 3.49 ERA) |
Brewers vs Padres latest injuries
Brewers vs Padres weather
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