After a 9-3 win on Opening Day, the Atlanta Braves will look to pick up another victory at the expense of the Philadelphia Phillies in Game 2 of their series. Max Fried will take the mound for the visitors while Aaron Nola will look to pick up his first win of the new season.
Fans on Friday were treated to a pitching showdown between Spencer Strider and Zack Wheeler, but the Philly bullpen imploded as the Braves posted seven runs in the eighth inning. Matt Olson notched a career-high three doubles in the win, including the pivotal three-run two-bagger.
However, our focus for Saturday is on the reigning NL MVP, as we explain why Ronald Acuna, Jr provides some solid MLB odds value in our MLB picks for Braves vs. Phillies on Saturday, March 30.
Braves vs Phillies odds
Braves vs Phillies predictions
Ronald Acuna Jr. stole a base in eight of his 17 games against Philadelphia last year and was successful in nine of his 10 attempts. That includes stealing third base against Aaron Nola in their May 25 contest, an 8-5 win for the Atlanta Braves.
Last season, Nola finished with a base advances prevented mark of -9, with only five qualifying pitchers allowing a larger negative differential. And only two pitchers gave up more of a lead distance from the start of their delivery to their release than Nola. That negated much of the pop possessed by catcher J.T. Realmuto.
Of course, you have to get on base in order to steal the next one — and Acuna has done that quite often against the Phillies righty. While he only reached base twice in their 10 regular-season showdowns last year, Acuna got to him in the postseason.
He notched a single and a double in their three playoff at-bats in Game 2 of the NLDS. And of course, he swiped another bag off Nola following that single in the fifth inning.
For his career, Acuna has reached base in 26 of his 59 plate appearances against Nola, including seven walks. And he picked up where he left off from his MVP campaign, reaching base in three of his five appearances with yet another steal in the season opener.
I don’t anticipate many chances to get him at better than +200 to swipe a base this season, so I’ll gladly take the offer of +210 at bet365. Back him to yet again have success at the plate against Nola while taking advantage of his slow delivery to advance on the basepaths.
My best bet: Ronald Acuna Jr. Over 0.5 stolen bases (+210 at bet365)
Braves vs Phillies same-game parlay
Ronald Acuna Jr. Over 0.5 stolen bases
Ronald Acuna Jr. Over 1.5 total bases
Nick Castellanos Over 0.5 hits
30% boost available
Acuna had a single and double on Friday, and he’s slugging .692 in the regular season against Nola. The Phillies’ pitcher finished 2023 in the 39th percentile in hard hit percentage and 24th percentile in fastball velocity. Acuna has good odds to find an extra-base knock here.
Nick Castellanos has terrorized Max Fried in his career and I expect him to get yet another hit on Saturday. In 15 plate appearances agaisnt the Braves’ pitcher, the outfielder has nine hits and a walk while striking out just once.
bet365 is also offering a 30% profit boost on any MLB SGP, so make sure to activate it and bump your odds from +700 to +909!
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Braves vs Phillies moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- The Braves are favored around -135 with little line movement, but the run line of +1.5 is being backed heavily by bettors.
- Atlanta catcher Sean Murphy left Friday’s game with injury and will miss Saturday’s game.
- The total of 8 runs sees the Over slightly favored.
- There have 8+ runs scored in seven of the last 10 meetings.
Trend to know
The Phillies have covered the first-five run line in 10 of their last 14 games (+6.21 units / 41% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Braves vs. Phillies
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Braves vs Phillies game info
| Location: | Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, PA |
| Date: | Saturday, March 30, 2024 |
| First pitch: | 4:05 p.m. ET |
| TV: | BSSO, NBCSP+ |
Starting pitchers
Max Fried (0-0, 0.00 ERA): Fried missed a large chunk of last season with an injury, but still finished in the 97th percentile in xERA. He’s failed to register a decision in four of his last five starts against Philly, going 0-1 in that span, but he struck out 31 batters while walking just eight in 28 IP. However, current Phillies are .301 all-time against Fried, with J.T. Realmuto, Trea Turner, and Castellanos all hitting .380 or better
Aaron Nola (0-0, 0-00 ERA): In four starts against the Braves last season, Nola allowed nine earned runs and struck out 29 hitters in 23 2/3 IP. In his career vs. current Atlanta batters, he’s got a strikeout rate of 27.4% and has struck out Austin Riley in each of their last four showdowns despite Riley hitting .386 in his career vs. Nola. He’s also done quite well against Travis d’Arnaud and Matt Olson, who are a combined 12 of 63 with 17 strikeouts.
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