Despite the loss of Ronald Acuna, Jr. and some poor starts from their best hitters, the Atlanta Braves are beginning to look like the Atlanta Braves of old.
They'll enter a road series vs. the St. Louis Cardinals aiming for their ninth win in 11 games, but my Braves vs. Cardinals predictions don't see that happening. Find out why in my MLB picks for this June 24 tilt.
Braves vs Cardinals prediction
My best bet
Cardinals moneyline (+105 at BetRivers)
My analysis
I’m still incredibly skeptical of Spencer Schwellenbach, who was rushed up from Double-A in late May to help the Atlanta Braves’ immediate need for starting pitching.
The 24-year-old only made 24 total starts over two years in the minor leagues, and while the results were positive and he rolled up plenty of ground balls, he’s failed to do that in the big leagues while experiencing a dip in strikeouts we generally see out of young hurlers.
His punchout numbers remain weak, and the fact he's walked two batters in each of his last three outings should create some concern against the St. Louis Cardinals.
St. Louis has begun to hit the ball, posting a 127 wRC+ with a stellar .201 Isolated Power over the last week. Busch Stadium is not a field where you want to hit a lot of fly balls, but Schwellenbach’s aversion to ground balls is statistically more felt with line drives and few weakly-hit pop ups.
I love the way the Cards are hitting, and with a K-rate of 22.7%, they should look even better against a young arm that still hasn’t mastered the art of missing bats and racking up punchouts.
I’m not the biggest fan of Lance Lynn, either, but there are two things going for him here. The first is the Braves are one of the most extreme fly-ball teams in the league — hunting home runs at every stop — and the second is his defense has improved in June to grade out as a league-average one by Outs Above Average.
He’ll give up plenty of contact here, but with the conditions in St. Louis, this Braves offense should look much meeker than it has in the last week.
Braves vs Cardinals same-game parlay (SGP)
Cardinals moneyline
Brendan Donovan 2+ total bases
Lance Lynn 5+ strikeouts
There are so many different ways to go here if you want to back a Cardinals bat, but I’m a little surprised to see Brendan Donovan priced this differently than Alec Burleson.
I was trying to decide between the two, and I think Donovan is the easy call since he’s hit .423 in the last week to Burleson’s .409. While Donovan might be at risk of having one fewer plate appearance due to his position in the order, he’s offered much more when it comes to going for extra bases.
I’m also not shying away from Lynn in this one either, even though he’s pitched pretty poorly over the last two weeks. He’s punched out five or more in six of his last seven outings and has brought his strikeout rate up this month with 20 in 17 2/3 innings. The Braves are striking out in over 27% of their plate appearances and should be easy pickings here.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Braves vs Cardinals odds
Braves vs Cardinals live odds
Braves vs Cardinals opening odds
- Run line: Atlanta -1.5 (+125) | St. Louis +1.5 (-150)
- Moneyline: Atlanta -125 | St. Louis +105
- Over/Under: Over 9.0 (-105) | Under 9,0 (-115)
Braves vs Cardinals spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Cardinals opened up as the underdogs at nearly +110, but they’ve been pushed down to around even money on aggregate early Monday afternoon.
- The total has been bouncing around between 8.5 and nine runs, and after a recent move up to nine late on Monday morning, the number is back to 8.5 with a heavy lean towards the Over.
- DraftKings has taken 68% of the moneyline bets and 78% of the cash on the Braves.
- The Over has accounted for 70% of the tickets and 68% of the handle wagered on the total.
Braves vs Cardinals trend
The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the run line in 12 of their last 17 games at home (+9.00 Units / 44% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Braves vs. Cardinals
Braves vs Cardinals game info
| Location: | Busch Stadium, St. Louis, MO |
| Date: | Monday, 6-24-2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:45 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Bally Sports South, Bally Sports Midwest |
| Braves starting pitcher: | Spencer Schwellenbach (1-2, 4.98 ERA) |
| Cardinals starting pitcher: | Lance Lynn (2-3, 4.08 ERA) |
Braves vs Cardinals latest injuries
Braves vs Cardinals weather
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Covers may receive advertising commissions for visits to a sportsbook or betting site.
