Wholesale changes could be on the horizon for the Toronto Blue Jays after getting swept in consecutive series. They now begin a three-game set having lost six straight vs. the same Boston Red Sox team that handed them three of those losses — this time at Fenway Park.
Game 1 is a rematch from last week where Tanner Houck and the BoSox outlasted Chris Bassitt and the Jays in a 4-3 final. The MLB odds like a repeat performance from Boston with its best starter on the hill.
Blue Jays vs Red Sox prediction
My best bet
George Springer Under 0.5 hits (+190 at PROLINE+)
My analysis
This is basically the Murphy’s Law of Toronto Blue Jays seasons. Everything that could go wrong, has. The latest example is that the Blue Jays just called up top hitting prospect Orelvis Martinez on Friday just to see him get suspended for 80 games on Sunday for PED violations.
On top of that, the pitching has not been able to replicate last year’s performance (which felt inevitable to some) while the offense has not bounced back. In fact, it has regressed further for the most part.
When it comes to the lineup, it feels like the coaching staff is just throwing stuff at the wall to see what sticks. Yes, some of the young guys like Spencer Horwitz have performed well but their inexperience shows at times and it will take a while for them to find more consistency.
Meanwhile, outside of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and shockingly Isiah Kiner-Filefa, the veterans have really struggled. Bo Bichette has been hurt and has underperformed when on the field, Kevin Kiermaier looks like a glove-only fourth outfielder at this point, and none have looked worse than George Springer.
The former All-Star’s production has fallen off a cliff. Springer is hitting below the Mendoza Line for the season with a .191 batting average, and his .567 OPS ranks dead last in the big leagues among qualified hitters. And it’s not getting better; June may be his worst month yet. Springer is hitting .145 with a .431 OPS over 20 games played this month and there’s a good chance that continues tonight against Boston Red Sox starter Tanner Houck.
The 27-year-old right-hander has been great this season, pitching to a 3.29 expected ERA, and is among the AL leaders when it comes to strikeout-to-walk ratio. Houck also has Springer’s number.
These two have faced off eight times during their careers. Springer is 0-7 with five strikeouts and a walk. That’s good for a 0.74 xBA and a 62.5% strikeout rate. Springer has been held hitless 10 times in his last 16 games and has fewer opportunities to get hits now that he’s no longer the everyday lead-off man.
It’s tough times in Toronto and I hate to pile on, but it’s hard to ignore this price for Springer to go hitless once again.
Blue Jays star player prop
My best bet
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 0.5 RBI (+145 at PROLINE+)
While pretty much everything has gone wrong for the Blue Jays this season, the one big positive has been the return of Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s big stick. After a slow start, many were wondering if this was just the Vladdy we should expect from now on, but the Blue Jays All-Star first baseman began tearing the cover off the ball in early May and he hasn’t stopped.
Guerrero owns an impressive .317 batting average and an .852 OPS since May 5. That includes six home runs and 22 RBIs.
Vladdy has also gotten a little makeover recently, cutting his hair and trademark dreads for the first time in a decade and it seems to be paying early dividends. Despite getting swept by the Guardians, Vladdy collected two dingers among four hits over the weekend and I think he can carry that over into tonight’s matchup.
That’s because Guerrero also has solid numbers vs. Houck. Vladdy is 3-for-13 with a double against him, good for a .307 xBA and a .496 xSLG.
And I'll give the Jays credit for something. They are trying to get their hottest hitters at the top of the batting order so Vladdy has more opportunities to drive runners in. For example, IKF and Spencer Horwitz batted first and second in Sunday’s loss. With those guys collecting three hits, I’d expect them to be at the top of the lineup card once again.
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Blue Jays vs Red Sox odds
Blue Jays vs Red Sox live odds
Blue Jays vs Red Sox opening odds
- Run line: Toronto +1.5 (-160) | Boston -1.5 (+135)
- Moneyline: Toronto +125 | Boston -150
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 | Under 8.5
Blue Jays vs Red Sox spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Blue Jays opened this AL East matchup as +125 road underdogs and bettors like their losing streak to continue as they're now sitting in the +145 range.
- The Blue Jays lost all three games of last week's series against the Red Sox, including the game in which Tanner Houck started. Houck allowed two earned runs on six hits while striking out five over 5 2/3 innings in that game.
- The total hit the board at 8.5 and that's where the number remains as of Monday afternoon.
- Chris Bassitt is the projected starter for the Blue Jays but has yet to be announced. If he does go, it's a rematch of last week's Game 2 which was a 4-3 Red Sox win, falling Under the closing total of 7.5.
Blue Jays vs Red Sox trend
The Blue Jays have stayed Under the total in 21 of their last 35 away games for +7.75 units and a 20% ROI. Find more MLB betting trends for Blue Jays vs. Red Sox
Blue Jays vs Red Sox game info
| Location: | Fenway Park, Boston, MA |
| Date: | Monday, 6-24-2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NESN, Sportsnet |
| Blue Jays starting pitcher: | Tanner Houck (7-5, 2.14 ERA) |
| Red Sox starting pitcher: | TBD |
Blue Jays vs Red Sox latest injuries
Blue Jays vs Red Sox weather
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