After dropping the first game in a three-game series to the Cleveland Guardians, the Toronto Blue Jays will try to snap a four-game losing streak Saturday afternoon from Progressive Field.
Following a 7-1 win, the Guardians are a -139 favorite for their second game against Toronto and are poised to continue showing why they’re among the top teams in the MLB.
Find out where my best bets lie in our Blue Jays vs. Guardians predictions and MLB picks on Saturday, June 22.
Blue Jays vs Guardians prediction
My best bet
Jose Ramirez Over 0.5 RBI (+117 at PROLINE+)
My analysis
It’s looking like another All-Star season for Jose Ramirez, who already has five to his name. The big-hitting third baseman has been mashing, per usual, as the heart and soul of the Cleveland Guardians lineup.
Ramirez sits sixth in the AL in home runs (18) and second in RBIs (65) while slashing .271/.331/.521. He’s been absolutely killer over the last month or so with 16 RBIs and four bombs in his last 20 games while batting .295.
That could have Toronto Blue Jays starter Jose Berrios in for a tough matchup against the switch hitting 31-year-old. The righty has four pitches he uses more than 15% of the time with his sinker (34.6%), slurve (31.6%), four-seamer (15.8%), and changeup (15.1%). Luckily for Ramirez backers, he has proven success against all four pitches.
Against sinkers this season, Ramirez is batting .297 with a .541 SLG and run value of five, his third highest against any pitch. While he’s yet to see a slurve this year, it’s a pitch he’s historically hit well. Since 2019, he’s never posted a batting average lower than .333 against the slurve.
But as much success as he’s had against those two pitches, he’s been even better against four-seamers and changeups. Those are Ramirez’s two highest run value pitches with a run value of eight against four-seamers and seven against changeups.
With a .276 average and .553 SLG vs. four-seamers this season and a .302 average and .604 SLG against changeups, there’s no pitch Berrios has that he can trust against Ramirez.
Blue Jays star player prop
My best bet
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 1.5 hits (+145 at PROLINE+)
With Ramirez set to do some major damage for the Guardians, the Blue Jays will need Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to be at an All-Star level. After a poor April/March, he’s come alive in his last 44 games with 54 hits.
Guerrero has a respectable slash line of .281/.367/.406 and is coming off a two-hit game in the loss to Cleveland. He’s recorded Over 1.5 hits in 21 of 75 games this season (28%) with at least two in 16 of his last 47 (34%).
He should be able to find some success against Cleveland starter Ben Lively. Lively leans heavily on two pitches — sinker (31.9%) and four-seamer (29.4%) — and Guerrero can hit them both with consistency.
This season, he’s batting .310 against sinkers and .303 against four-seamers. That doesn’t bode well for Lively, who has a .310 xBA with his four-seamer.
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Blue Jays vs Guardians odds
Blue Jays vs Guardians live odds
Blue Jays vs Guardians opening odds
- Run line: Toronto +1.5 | Cleveland -1.5
- Moneyline: Toronto +116 | Cleveland -126
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 | Under 8.5
Blue Jays vs Guardians spread and Over/Under analysis
- With their dominant first game against the Blue Jays, the Guardians opened between a -125 to -139 favorite. Most books are now offering Cleveland between -133 and -141.
- The Guardians have been one of the best teams in baseball this year with a 47-26 record while the Jays continue to struggle at 35-40.
- The Over/Under opened at 8.5 and has seen minimal movement. The Under is being offered at even money or plus-money at most books.
- Cleveland has been one of the better Over teams in the MLB at 35-33-5, and Toronto has been one of the worst at 32-41-2.
Blue Jays vs Guardians trend
The Guardians have hit the team total Over in 44 of their last 73 games (+11.00 Units / 13% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Blue Jays vs. Guardians
Blue Jays vs Guardians game info
| Location: | Progressive Field, Cleveland, OH |
| Date: | Saturday, 6-22-2024 |
| First pitch: | 4:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Sportsnet, BSGL |
| Blue Jays starting pitcher: | Jose Berrios (6-5, 3.13 ERA) |
| Guardians starting pitcher: | Ben Lively (6-3, 3.02 ERA) |
Blue Jays vs Guardians latest injuries
Blue Jays vs Guardians weather
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