The Chicago Cubs will try to complete a three-game sweep this afternoon when they host the Houston Astros at Wrigley Field.
The Cubs (15-9) are coming off two straight wins over Houston, yet the Astros (7-18) are favorites in the MLB odds today behind veteran starter Justin Verlander.
Today’s game features a fascinating pitching matchup between Verlander and Javier Assad, which we’ll break down in our free Astros vs. Cubs predictions and MLB picks for April 25.
Astros vs Cubs prediction
My best bet
Under 7.5 (-102 at FanDuel)
My analysis
Anyone who watches baseball knows the basic outline of Justin Verlander’s resume. The 41-year-old has won 258 games, made nine All-Star Games, and clinched three Cy Young awards.
The remaining question is whether the Houston Astros right-hander can continue to be a dominant force in the majors at his age. Unsurprisingly, health is beginning to become an issue for Verlander, as he hasn’t thrown more than 28 starts since 2019, and has only hit the mound once this year.
But even if he’s no longer a Cy Young favorite, Verlander continues to be an effective frontline starter in his 19th season. Verlander made his first start of the year on April 19 and allowed just two runs on four hits over six innings against Washington. We could use a bigger sample size before being certain, but it looks like Verlander still has what it takes to win games — something the struggling Astros desperately need for the rest of the season.
In contrast, the Chicago Cubs are starting 26-year-old Javier Assad. The Mexican right-hander has looked great when he’s been available over his first three seasons, going 9-5 with a 2.94 ERA. While Assad has yet to earn a full-time spot in the Chicago rotation, it looks like the Cubs might finally be ready to give him a run for the entire season.
With Assad starting to build a track record of success and Verlander rounding into form for what looks like another successful season, this could turn into a pitcher’s duel in Chicago. Even with two lineups capable of scoring runs, pitching should dominate today.
A look into the recent numbers gives us more reason to expect a low-scoring game. Over their last eight games, the Astros haven’t hit the Over a single time, with only one push blemishing an otherwise perfect 7-0 record for the Under.
The Cubs haven't been quite that dramatic in their trends, but have hit the Under in seven of their last 10 games. Just yesterday, these teams combined for only seven runs even after getting into both bullpens relatively early.
With a strong pitching matchup and a recent trend of lower-scoring games, the stage is set for these lineups to struggle this afternoon.
Astros vs Cubs same-game parlay (SGP)
Cubs moneyline
Under 7.5
Javier Assad 4+ strikeouts
Along with the Under, I’m also taking the Cubs to win today’s game. Given Houston’s struggles and the fact that Chicago is playing at home, I’m happy to take the Cubs with a plus number.
I’m also adding in a bet on Assad to record at least four strikeouts. Assad has hit that total in three of his four starts this year and should be able to get there again this afternoon.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Astros vs Cubs odds
Astros vs Cubs live odds
Astros vs Cubs opening odds
- Run line: Houston -1.5 (+140) | Chicago +1.5 (-165)
- Moneyline: Houston -125 | Chicago +105
- Over/Under: Over 8 (-110) | Under 8 (-110)
Astros vs Cubs spread and Over/Under analysis
- Houston opened today’s game as a -125 favorite. The consensus moneyline is now Astros -130, with Chicago available at +110.
- The Astros have been one of the worst teams for bettors this year, losing nearly 15 units on the season. The Cubs are up over seven units on the year.
- The total on today’s game opened at eight runs. The Over/Under is now 7.5 runs, and while most books are offering -110 on both sides, you can find the Under at -102 by shopping around.
- The Under has gone 15-8 in Houston’s games this season and also has a 13-11 record when the Cubs play.
Astros vs Cubs trend
The Under is 7-0-1 in Houston’s last eight games. Find more MLB betting trends for Astros vs. Cubs
Astros vs Cubs game info
| Location: | Wrigley Field, Chicago, IL |
| Date: | Thursday, 4-25-2024 |
| First pitch: | 2:20 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Space City Network, Marquee |
| Astros starting pitcher: | Justin Verlander (1-0, 3.00 ERA) |
| Cubs starting pitcher: | Javier Assad (2-0, 2.11 ERA) |
Astros vs Cubs latest injuries
Astros vs Cubs weather
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Covers may receive advertising commissions for visits to a sportsbook or betting site.
