Ludvig Aberg holds the solo lead after Friday’s Round 2 at -5. Like always at Pinehurst No. 2, it’s only going to get tougher from here on out as the greens continue to bake and firm up.
Here are my best US Open picks ahead of today’s Round 3 on Saturday, June 15.
Best U.S. Open Round 3 picks
Tony Finau - Top American (+550)
This play is not just for Round 3 but for whoever is the top American by the end of the tournament. In what is a four-horse race, I think the value lies with Tony Finau at +550.
By comparison, Bryson DeChambeau is +185, Patrick Cantlay is +360, and Xander Schauffele is +450. Finau is just one stroke back of both DeChambeau and Cantlay while he holds a two-stroke lead over Schauffele.
If he holds off Schauffele, can he catch DeChambeau and Cantlay? Perhaps, given that Finau outranks both in strokes gained tee-to-green this week.
He’s been the better ball-striker and most accurate driver out of the three (four if you include Schauffele), and it is that driving accuracy that I think will eventually lead to Finau overtaking them on the leaderboard. At Pinehurst No. 2, the track is going to get faster as the week progresses, and the number one thing you need to do is hit fairways so that you can land your next approach shot on the green as accurately as possible.
If you are hitting out of the rustic rough, it will be almost impossible for golfers to keep the ball on the green when it lands (even if you are fortunate enough for it to be accurate anyway). Subsequently, you will be forced to scramble on extremely complex green structures, which is the quickest way to run up your score here.
Pick: Tony Finau - Top American (+550 at FanDuel)
Collin Morikawa - Top 20 (+150)
This play is also for the remainder of the tournament. Collin Morikawa currently sits at T51 (+4), which is three to four strokes back from where he will likely need to be to finish inside the top 20.
With that said, two days is enough time for one of the world’s best players to get that done. Morikawa entered this week in tremendous form with three straight Top-4 finishes, and the only thing holding him back thus far has been his putter.
With that said, his ball striking has been strong, and he’s been accurate off the tee; two things that, again, will be far more valuable moving forward over the weekend than his putter. In fact, there’s just a single more accurate driver than Morikawa this week currently sitting lower than T16 (Sepp Straka), which is around where I believe Morikawa will finish.
Pick: Collin Morikawa - Top 20 (+150 at DraftKings)
Sepp Straka - Top 20 (+180)
That Sepp Straka mention in the previous section is why I like him in this market as well. Straka is currently T27 (+2), and his game should allow for a relatively consistent weekend that sees him stick around the 15-25 range on the leaderboard.
He’s not only remaining extremely accurate off the tee at 85.7% this week, but he also has gained +1.98 true strokes on the approach over the field. That‘s the third-highest number out of anyone in this field that is not (yet) in the Top 10.
We also know that Straka can finish toward the top of leaderboards, given that he boasts seven Top-20 finishes over his past nine tournaments.
Pick: Sepp Straka - Top 20 (+180 at DraftKings)
Latest U.S. Open odds
- Ludvig Aberg (+330)
- Bryson DeChambeau (+400)
- Rory McIlroy (+400)
- Patrick Cantlay (+900)
- Xander Schauffele (+1,100)
- Tony Finau (+1,400)
- Hideki Matsuyama (+1,400)
- Thomas Detry (+1,800)
- Tyrell Hatton (+4,000)
- Matthieu Pavon (+4,500)
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.
