@theclaw
Bills a solid winner
Nice write-ups Claw. I leaned Niners as well, but I feel like Niners lines are always inflated.
The thing that sticks out to me the most is the Miami +170 ML in a game that could go either way. Seems like too much value there to take a team that has looked as good as Miami has this season when Tua has played.
The fear is that Miami may jump out to a lead and the Niners run-first offense may not be able to keep up. But Miami's defense is swiss cheese, so even if the Niners get down, they could easily answer.
Nice write-ups Claw. I leaned Niners as well, but I feel like Niners lines are always inflated.
The thing that sticks out to me the most is the Miami +170 ML in a game that could go either way. Seems like too much value there to take a team that has looked as good as Miami has this season when Tua has played.
The fear is that Miami may jump out to a lead and the Niners run-first offense may not be able to keep up. But Miami's defense is swiss cheese, so even if the Niners get down, they could easily answer.
Thanks , I looked it up, yes looks pretty tough, if they can pass this remaining schedule we might have something but I doubt they will.
Thanks , I looked it up, yes looks pretty tough, if they can pass this remaining schedule we might have something but I doubt they will.
POWER RATING II.......................................
2.....Ravens 10.52
7......Titans 4.42
8.........Dolphins 2.86
rankings only indicate teams I ran the numbers for, could be other teams in the mix.
Titans got hammered by Bills week 2, 41-7 and rated-out very weak, -27.12 if we throw that game out they'd rate 7.58 but I don't think we can completely throw the game out. If we give them credit for a 0 rating they rate 6.68 but I think we have to at least give them a loss, how large a loss can be debatable but say -10 they'd rate out around 6.
A team can over-come a blow-out loss it just takes more games averaged in with the big loss, but they'll need a couple big blow-out games to offset that one big loss.
Dolphins if we throw-out the 2 games Tua missed then Dolphins rate at 6. Throwing out these games is more legit then throwing-out the Titans blow-out loss as Tua is having a historical type season, but seems about right that both these teams would be close to even, I shade a little more to Dolphins at this time but both teams have some tough games ahead that will determine the final ratings.
POWER RATINGS I .......................................
8 .......Ravens 4.5
almost dead-even with Titans 4.47, Ravens way better in run game margin but Titans much better in passing margins, if the Ravens could pass they'd be a serious threat. But we all know that ain't happening with Lamar.
Ravens dominate in run game, not surprised to see them in 2cd place.
POWER RATING II.......................................
2.....Ravens 10.52
7......Titans 4.42
8.........Dolphins 2.86
rankings only indicate teams I ran the numbers for, could be other teams in the mix.
Titans got hammered by Bills week 2, 41-7 and rated-out very weak, -27.12 if we throw that game out they'd rate 7.58 but I don't think we can completely throw the game out. If we give them credit for a 0 rating they rate 6.68 but I think we have to at least give them a loss, how large a loss can be debatable but say -10 they'd rate out around 6.
A team can over-come a blow-out loss it just takes more games averaged in with the big loss, but they'll need a couple big blow-out games to offset that one big loss.
Dolphins if we throw-out the 2 games Tua missed then Dolphins rate at 6. Throwing out these games is more legit then throwing-out the Titans blow-out loss as Tua is having a historical type season, but seems about right that both these teams would be close to even, I shade a little more to Dolphins at this time but both teams have some tough games ahead that will determine the final ratings.
POWER RATINGS I .......................................
8 .......Ravens 4.5
almost dead-even with Titans 4.47, Ravens way better in run game margin but Titans much better in passing margins, if the Ravens could pass they'd be a serious threat. But we all know that ain't happening with Lamar.
Ravens dominate in run game, not surprised to see them in 2cd place.
POWER RATING II.......................................
2.....Ravens 10.52
7......Titans 4.42
8.........Dolphins 2.86
rankings only indicate teams I ran the numbers for, could be other teams in the mix.
Titans got hammered by Bills week 2, 41-7 and rated-out very weak, -27.12 if we throw that game out they'd rate 7.58 but I don't think we can completely throw the game out. If we give them credit for a 0 rating they rate 6.68 but I think we have to at least give them a loss, how large a loss can be debatable but say -10 they'd rate out around 6.
A team can over-come a blow-out loss it just takes more games averaged in with the big loss, but they'll need a couple big blow-out games to offset that one big loss.
Dolphins if we throw-out the 2 games Tua missed then Dolphins rate at 6. Throwing out these games is more legit then throwing-out the Titans blow-out loss as Tua is having a historical type season, but seems about right that both these teams would be close to even, I shade a little more to Dolphins at this time but both teams have some tough games ahead that will determine the final ratings.
POWER RATINGS I .......................................
8 .......Ravens 4.5
almost dead-even with Titans 4.47, Ravens way better in run game margin but Titans much better in passing margins, if the Ravens could pass they'd be a serious threat. But we all know that ain't happening with Lamar.
Ravens dominate in run game, not surprised to see them in 2cd place.
POWER RATING II.......................................
2.....Ravens 10.52
7......Titans 4.42
8.........Dolphins 2.86
rankings only indicate teams I ran the numbers for, could be other teams in the mix.
Titans got hammered by Bills week 2, 41-7 and rated-out very weak, -27.12 if we throw that game out they'd rate 7.58 but I don't think we can completely throw the game out. If we give them credit for a 0 rating they rate 6.68 but I think we have to at least give them a loss, how large a loss can be debatable but say -10 they'd rate out around 6.
A team can over-come a blow-out loss it just takes more games averaged in with the big loss, but they'll need a couple big blow-out games to offset that one big loss.
Dolphins if we throw-out the 2 games Tua missed then Dolphins rate at 6. Throwing out these games is more legit then throwing-out the Titans blow-out loss as Tua is having a historical type season, but seems about right that both these teams would be close to even, I shade a little more to Dolphins at this time but both teams have some tough games ahead that will determine the final ratings.
POWER RATINGS I .......................................
8 .......Ravens 4.5
almost dead-even with Titans 4.47, Ravens way better in run game margin but Titans much better in passing margins, if the Ravens could pass they'd be a serious threat. But we all know that ain't happening with Lamar.
Ravens dominate in run game, not surprised to see them in 2cd place.
going to be a big game with some serious implications for both teams, somebody has got to step up and deliver
going to be a big game with some serious implications for both teams, somebody has got to step up and deliver
thursday night --- 1-0 ATS - won 1 unit
pending plays................................
Giants +2.5 over Wash --- 1.1 units
KC -1.5 over Bengals --- 1.1 units
Dolphins +4 over 9ers
9ers -4 over Dolphins
made a mistake backing Dolphins so I bought-off on 9ers to basically lose .1 unit
plan is to fade the ATS winner next week as both teams due some regression
I'd side more to Dolphins TT UNDER 20.5 but with 9ers in regression with defense giving up back-to-back games of 10 or less can't make any plays on it, if Dolphins cover and score well I'd take Dolphins TT UNDER next week.
thursday night --- 1-0 ATS - won 1 unit
pending plays................................
Giants +2.5 over Wash --- 1.1 units
KC -1.5 over Bengals --- 1.1 units
Dolphins +4 over 9ers
9ers -4 over Dolphins
made a mistake backing Dolphins so I bought-off on 9ers to basically lose .1 unit
plan is to fade the ATS winner next week as both teams due some regression
I'd side more to Dolphins TT UNDER 20.5 but with 9ers in regression with defense giving up back-to-back games of 10 or less can't make any plays on it, if Dolphins cover and score well I'd take Dolphins TT UNDER next week.
thursday night --- 1-0 ATS - won 1 unit
pending plays................................
Giants +2.5 over Wash --- 1.1 units
KC -1.5 over Bengals --- 1.1 units
Dolphins +4 over 9ers
9ers -4 over Dolphins
made a mistake backing Dolphins so I bought-off on 9ers to basically lose .1 unit
plan is to fade the ATS winner next week as both teams due some regression
I'd side more to Dolphins TT UNDER 20.5 but with 9ers in regression with defense giving up back-to-back games of 10 or less can't make any plays on it, if Dolphins cover and score well I'd take Dolphins TT UNDER next week.
thursday night --- 1-0 ATS - won 1 unit
pending plays................................
Giants +2.5 over Wash --- 1.1 units
KC -1.5 over Bengals --- 1.1 units
Dolphins +4 over 9ers
9ers -4 over Dolphins
made a mistake backing Dolphins so I bought-off on 9ers to basically lose .1 unit
plan is to fade the ATS winner next week as both teams due some regression
I'd side more to Dolphins TT UNDER 20.5 but with 9ers in regression with defense giving up back-to-back games of 10 or less can't make any plays on it, if Dolphins cover and score well I'd take Dolphins TT UNDER next week.
I saw this only online and thought it was interesting.
Take a teams total yards margin then divide that by 10 that should give you a teams win/loss margin
This was after week 10.
Quess who's record is the least likely to be what it is after week 10 ?
I think we all should know, the Vikings at -11, they have a -50 yards margin divided by 10 = -5 so their win/loss margin should be -5 but was 8-2 = 6 so a difference of -11.
Jets are -1.
Quess who is 2cd worse, yep Vikings of the AFC those Titans at -9. But -8 after last week.
Eagles were -1.
The best good team on the + side is 9ers at +6
Best team was Browns at +7.
Interesting because today so many like the Titans but are they really as good as their record says and on top of this they have won so many close games, I doubt there is any indicators says Titans are all that good of a team.
Going to be a game I'll be watching closely today. Don't really like either team, Eagles are not likely going 16-1 or 15-2 they should lose another game or 2, possible they are getting a little fat and sassy and may be complacent with all their success up to now.
I don't think the incentive is with the Eagles as much as being with the Titans but I wouldn't be surprised at all if Eagles roll Titans today with so many thinking this is an easy pick, some how it don't work that way
I saw this only online and thought it was interesting.
Take a teams total yards margin then divide that by 10 that should give you a teams win/loss margin
This was after week 10.
Quess who's record is the least likely to be what it is after week 10 ?
I think we all should know, the Vikings at -11, they have a -50 yards margin divided by 10 = -5 so their win/loss margin should be -5 but was 8-2 = 6 so a difference of -11.
Jets are -1.
Quess who is 2cd worse, yep Vikings of the AFC those Titans at -9. But -8 after last week.
Eagles were -1.
The best good team on the + side is 9ers at +6
Best team was Browns at +7.
Interesting because today so many like the Titans but are they really as good as their record says and on top of this they have won so many close games, I doubt there is any indicators says Titans are all that good of a team.
Going to be a game I'll be watching closely today. Don't really like either team, Eagles are not likely going 16-1 or 15-2 they should lose another game or 2, possible they are getting a little fat and sassy and may be complacent with all their success up to now.
I don't think the incentive is with the Eagles as much as being with the Titans but I wouldn't be surprised at all if Eagles roll Titans today with so many thinking this is an easy pick, some how it don't work that way
Well, 1st half and the Eagles are chewing up the Titans, 133 QBPR to 103 by 30 pts, that's big.
300 yards to 150 by 150 yards, that's big
16 1st downs to 7
9.7 ave per pass attempt to 5.3, wow 4.4 that is huge.
Complete mismatch in 1st half but Eagles don't have as big a lead as they should based on the 1st play, we'll see if Titans can come back and make it competitive.
Well, 1st half and the Eagles are chewing up the Titans, 133 QBPR to 103 by 30 pts, that's big.
300 yards to 150 by 150 yards, that's big
16 1st downs to 7
9.7 ave per pass attempt to 5.3, wow 4.4 that is huge.
Complete mismatch in 1st half but Eagles don't have as big a lead as they should based on the 1st play, we'll see if Titans can come back and make it competitive.
Eagles up 28-10 and in the RedZone.
Titans gained 2 yards in the 3rd, Eagles over 100.
These fraud teams are being exposed when they play a very good team.
This is what it is very likely going to look like in the playoffs for both Vikes and Titans.
Eagles up 28-10 and in the RedZone.
Titans gained 2 yards in the 3rd, Eagles over 100.
These fraud teams are being exposed when they play a very good team.
This is what it is very likely going to look like in the playoffs for both Vikes and Titans.
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