Final margin of victory is 7 points or less:
Brady: 81-36 (0.692), including 13-5 (0.722) in the playoffs
Rodgers: 37-34 (0.521), including 5-5 (0.500) in the playoffs
What about specifically when the defense has a bad game and gives up a lot of points?
When each guy’s team gives up 28+ points:
Brady: 22-31 (0.415) including 4-4 (0.500) in the playoffs
Rodgers: 9-32 (0.220) including 1-5 (0.167) in the playoffs
Now this includes the super 40+ point meltdowns (neither guy has ever won a game their team gave up over 40) so let's just look when the team gives up 30-39 points (still pretty terrible!):
Brady: 13-19 (0.406) including 1-2 in the playoffs
Rodgers: 7-22 (0.241) including 1-1 in the playoffs
Okay so maybe he has more trouble than Brady when the defense plays bad but what about when they do good? Surely Rodgers is totally automatic when that happens and probably better than Tommy.
When each guy’s team gives up 0-10 points:
Brady: 65-0 including 4-0 in the playoffs
Rodgers: 25-1 including 1-0 in the playoffs
When each guy’s team gives up 11-19 points:
Brady: 73-6 (0.924) including 10-1 (0.909) in the playoffs
Rodgers: 33-8 (0.805) including 4-0 in the playoffs (Nice that he did better here again!)
So combined when his team gives up less than 20 points:
Brady 138-6 (0.958)
Rodgers 58-9 (0.866)
So in just under half as many games Rodgers has lost 50% more games when the defense does well. Brady barely ever wastes a good effort while Rodgers isn't bad but loses more than 3x as often (13.4% vs. 4.2%) when his defense does enough to win.
We also here a lot about how Rodgers has to carry his team. So what happens when each guy is asked to do more with his arm to really carry the team?
40 or more attempts:
Brady: 55-29 (0.655), including 11-6 (0.647) in the playoffs
Rodgers: 14-25 (0.359), including 2-4 (0.333) in the playoffs
50 or more attempts:
Brady: 19-9 (0.679), including 6-2 (0.750) in the playoffs (2-0 in the SB)
Rodgers: 1-3 (0.250), never thrown that much in the playoffs
Oh and what about clutch?
When Throwing 40+ times 29 of those 55 wins are GWDs and 26 were 4th quarter comebacks for Brady (7 GWDs and 6 comebacks in the playoffs including 3 in the SB)
For Rodgers? Only 5 of his 14 wins were GWDs and only 3 of those were 4QCs (1 GWD and no comebacks in the playoffs)
Brady has been asked to carry his team with his arm much more, and not just because he has played longer. He has thrown 40+ times in 29.3% of his starts (84 of 287) and Rodgers only 24.7% of his (39 of 158) and he actually wins most of the time while Rodgers mostly loses the more he is asked to do.
So many times the hard to quantify “It” factor is what people use to determine greatness and Brady just oozes it and Rodgers is good but not great.