MW Cont'd ..
UTAH STATE UNDER 9 -125 (BAR)
Cookie crumbled their way so many times last year and I got a good enough feel that I don't think they are buttoning up all the holes they had LY and could end up finding more problems than before .. were getting 9 because of the EPIC run from last year and keep the coaches/QB in tact but top 2 WR's and top TE are gone and Thompkins was a real legit next level player 1500 yds receiving last year .. they get a couple maybe surprises from the portal Cobbs from MD 277 yds LY and prospect Xavier Williams 4 star prospect from Bama, hasn't played yet unknown medical issue .. so possible they fill the massive hole but we'll see .. the hole is really massive .. I obvi do like Logan Bonner to fingle wins and maybe have a strong team but any injury there and backup is Levi Williams from Wyoming who is solid but also a solid step down .. On D they def lose a couple big time players in Shaq Bond, Cam Lampkin in the secondary and Justin Rice .. they were all very solid and not easy for Aggies to replace .. could be tough to be much better on D and they were prone LY to having bad games, giving up 6-7 yds / rush multiple times .. When they lost they got smoked and lotta close wins vs Wash St, AF, UNLV, CO.State all coulda / shoulda gone the other way ..
Schedule has a sure thing loss vs Bama so we're looking for 3 more losses .. @BYU, AF, @Boise seem like the best shots and I really like BYU and AF this year .. otherwise they got trips to Co.State, Wyoming, Hawaii not easy spots to rack up must wins .. I also have SJSU and UNLV as likely better this year and just a variety of ways to not go 10 or 11-1 after Bama and I lose the bet .. I think almost all the probabilities come closer to 6-8 wins and any shock scenarios lean heavier to 5 wins than 9 or more wins here .. even their FCS opponent Weber State should be no picnic ..
WYOMING UNDER 5.5 EVEN (BAR)
Not much to say other than team got gutted in the portal both QB's out far and away best WR they've had in maybe 10 years or more .. few OL's and a ton on D grad, xferred and really not much is coming in the door .. Best shots at W's seem like FCS N.Col, @Haw, @N.Mex, Tulsa, SJSU .. maybe they are favored in 3 of those / tossups in 2 .. but SJSU sounds like a comeback year with Cordeiero coming in from Hawaii and some other xfers pumping up their offense so they could be a decent dog in that one .. We already know they're 10 pt dogs to Illinois and beyond that its SF, @BYU, UT.St, @CO.St, Boise, @Fresno .. basically if they lose any of their easier games its gunna be really tough to win 2 from what's likely 10 or more point favorites .. Wyoming does always produce tough players and style of football / home field can squeeze extra wins out of their schedule but man this team looks to be in bad shape and very thin, bad QB Peasly coming in and just nothing behind him, no room for injuries and coach already mentioned a couple from spring including a bad knee injury .. we got even odds if some bigger books push these guys to 6 i'd take it again .. bigger bet .. but funny feeling the bad news will spread pretty quick on these guys .. would grab good odds on 5.5 sooner than later ..