NinjaNight

Jacksonville the only pick I dont like

Bears vs Saints seems nice

Snowshoes??

@Enfuego9

 No idea what hes talking about

Joe Flacco factor otherwise this would've covered... he's a good QB just needs protection and people to throw to... my system which was based on their games with the backup QB was 17-2 on high confidence plays and chose steelers high confidence also had been 5-1 on TNF... Flacco messed up everything hes a great replacement for Burrow

@BeeRich

 Nice I followed that came back to covers a couple weeks ago read a few threads including yours cause your record was good thought I agreed with that teaser followed it accidentally placed it twice cause my book lagged out looked like it was gonna lose then checked late 4th quarter Carolina in the red zone then scored :D that was amazing. Apparently team record or somethign 17 point comeback?

And yes you did LOL just checked... its worse than I thought it wasn't just Dallas over Browns you were relying on to win but Seattle too :O. Thats funny how things change, yea true it was Covid times everything haywire :P

https://www.covers.com/forum/nfl-betting-21/nfl-ytd-11-3-1---week-4-103454232

Nice I thought that teaser looked great

Alrighty then glad I pointed out all those red flags cause it all fit that game perfectly, and indeed the Joe Flacco X factor was a HUGE game changer. Crazy entertaining game though

Rushing the post to make sure its posted before game starts forgot to link backtesting and reintroduction thread

https://www.covers.com/forum/nfl-betting-21/return-of-the-ninja---the-king-of-nfl-is-back-2018-season-posted-75-ats-system-plays-2nd-half-season-103981418

Still missing weeks 1 and 2 backtesting working on it posted weeks 3 thru 6

Alright lets get this season started... I am mostly a system player and I like to see what side Don Juan is on for the Superbowl's since he almost always wins by himself, as well as Aliens max plays. Posted 75% ATS from probably around week 9 to championship games combined in second half of 2018 season, won on 2020 Superbowl play

Sorry for lateness been in a rush to get here before gametime.

Current system different from 2018 one but similar, don't have access to 2018 system, however it is 17-2 on high confidence plays in backtesting for the season so far and the only TNF loss was Green Bay -15 last week laying way too many points

We have another high confidence play today Pittsburgh Steelers -5.5

Some red flags for warning 1) Joe Flacco dynamic this could potentially mess up the system as it cannot account for QB changes and jimmygape saying he was meshing well with the star WRs 2nd half last week 2) Steelers 0-8 on TNF vs divisional on the road I believe 3) Divisional tends to favor the underdog getting significant points 4) MNF last week in week 6 was the model's first ultra high confidence play on Washington -5.5 which lost and this is almost as high on that on confidence (if you're feeling too confident theres something you don't know? Artemis Fowl :P)_

Week 5 11-1 (91%) -> Just absolutely ridiculous I have no idea how this week was so accurate

Dal +1.5 @ NYJ: Dal +1.5 

Den +4 @ Phi: Den +4 

Hou -2.5 @ Bal: Hou -2.5 

LV +7 @ Ind: Ind -7 

Mia -1 @ Car: Car +1 

NYG +2.5 @ NO: NO -2.5 

TB +4 @ Sea: TB +4 

Ten +7.5 @ Ari: Ten +7.5 

Det -9.5 @ Cin: Det -9.5 

Was +2.5 @ LAC: Was +2.5 

NE +7.5 @ Buf: NE +7.5 

KC -3.5 @ Jax: KC -3.5 

Week 5 high confidence plays (does it matter lol almost everything won): Hou -2.5 W, Ind -7 W, Ten +7.5 W, Det -9.5 W  4-0 (100%)

Medium confidence plays: NO -2.5 W, NE +7.5 W  2-0 (100%)

Low confidence plays: Dal +1.5 W, Den +4 W, Car +1 W, TB +4 W, Was +2.5 W, KC -3.5 L  5-1 (83.3%)

Week 6 8-5 (61.5%) -> I was floored by this one looked like a mere 60% week until I analyzed further and found it was only low confidence plays losing

Cin +15 @ GB: GB -15 L

SF +3 @ TB: TB -3 W

Phi -7.5 @ NYG: NYG +7.5 W

Den -7 @ NYJ: NYJ +7 W

Ari +10 @ Ind: Ind -10 L

NE -3.5 @ NO: NO +3.5 L

LAC -4 @ Mia: Mia +4 W

Sea -1 @ Jax: Jax +1 L

Cle +6 @ Pit: Pit -6 W

Dal -3 @ Car: Dal -3 L

LAR -7.5 @ Bal: LAR -7.5 W

Ten +5 @ LV: LV -5 W

Det +2.5 @ KC: KC -2.5 W

Buf -3.5 @ Atl: Atl +3.5 W

Chi +5.5 @ Was: Was -5.5 L

Week 6 high confidence picks: Was -5.5 L, LV -5 W, LAR -7.5 W, KC -2.5 W  3-1 (75%)

Medium confidence picks: Pit -6 W, NYG +7.5 W, Atl +3.5 W, NYJ +7 W, Mia +4 W, TB -3 W  6-0 (100%)

Low confidence picks: NO +3.5 L, Jax +1 L, Ind -10 L, GB -15 L, Dal -3 L  0-5 (0%)

So week 6 low confidence suddenly got completely thrashed for some reason but thats where almost all the losses came from can't believe how clean the split is on this week, with the old 2018 system which was different I don't remember seeing such clean splits result like that ever

Next to wrap up the season so far's backtesting (nothing has been played I just finished the system this week) we will have weeks 1 & 2 next post

Okay here we go I completed the backtesting on the season so far... I didn't know I wouldn't be able to come back and edit my OP later to tell what post the backtest results are in that sucks

Weeks 1 & 2 it had no predictive ability super clean 8-8 (50%) on both... except on week 2 the highest confidence plays were promising at 3-0, coinflip on week 1. This is expected its why I didn't care about backtesting weeks 1 & 2 until I got more work done on the system. Its because the books are just guessing on their lines and things haven't stabilized yet chaotic early weeks.

Let's start with the important weeks I originally posted percents for... apparently by week 3 lines and teams stabilized as the system began predicting well

Week 3 9-6 (60%)

Mia +11 @ Buf: Mia +11 

Atl -5 @ Car: Atl -5 

LV +3 @ Was: Was -3 

Ind -6 @ Ten: Ind -6 

Cin +3 @ Min: Min -3 

Pit -1 @ NE: Pit -1 

Hou +1.5 @ Jac: Jac -1.5 

GB -7.5 @ Cle: GB -7.5 

LAR +3.5 @ Phi: Phi -3.5 

NYJ +6.5 @ TB: TB -6.5 

NO +7.5 @ Sea: Sea -7.5 

Dal -1 @ Chi: Dal -1 

Ari +2 @ SF: SF -2 

KC -6 @ NYG: KC -6 

Det +4.5 @ Bal: Bal -4.5 

Week 3 high confidence plays: KC -6 W, Sea -7.5 W, Ind -6 W  3-0 (100%)

Medium confidence plays: Was -3 W, Min -3 W, GB -7.5 L, TB -6.5 L, Bal -4.5 L  2-3 (40%)

Low confidence plays: Mia +11 W, Atl -5 L, Pit -1 W, Jac -1.5 W, Phi -3.5 W, Dal -1 L, SF -2 L 4-3 (57%)

Week 4 12-4 (75%)

Sea -1.5 @ Ari: Sea -1.5 W

Min -2.5 @ Pit: Pit +2.5 W

Phi -3.5 @ TB: Phi -3.5 W

Car +5.5 @ NE: NE -5.5 W

Was +2.5 @ Atl: Was +2.5 L

Cle +10.5 @ Det: Det -10.5 W

Ten +7.5 @ Hou: Hou -7.5 W

NO +14.5 @ Buf: NO +14.5 W

LAC -6 @ NYG: NYG +6 W

Ind +3.5 @ LAR: LAR -3.5 W

Jax +3.5 @ SF: SF -3.5 L

Chi +1.5 @ LV: LV -1.5 L

Bal -2.5 @ KC: KC -2.5 W

GB -6.5 @ Dal: GB -6.5 L

NYJ +2.5 @ Mia: Mia -2.5 W

Cin +7.5 @ Den: Den -7.5 W

Week 4 high confidence plays: Det -10.5 W, Hou -7.5 W, KC -2.5 W, GB -6.5 L, Den -7.5 W 

Medium confidence plays: NO +14.5 W, SF -3.5 L

Low confidence plays: Sea -1.5 W, Pit +2.5 W, Phi -3.5 W, NE -5.5 W, Was +2.5 L, NYG +6 W, LAR -3.5 W, LV -1.5 L, Mia -2.5 W

Weeks 5, 6, 1, and 2 incoming next post character limit...

@AI4life

 Just this season? It'd be snowshoes, Linelord, Pizzaman all pretty similar except snowshoes has the most volume 

If I reproduce the success of my 2018 system it'll be me I haven't done anything this year just working on remaking the system... about to start posting for week 7. 2018 season I joined late maybe started week 9 or so and regular season plus playoffs ended up 75% ATS on official plays on pretty high volume (covers only goes back to 2019 apparently so I can't even look up my old threads to see exactly what the details were)

@usikbasterd

 You can just check snowshoes, Linelord, Pizzaman profiles to prove thats not true...

@brn2loslive2win

 Thats exactly what I've been thinking lately selling points in counterintuitive situations has possibly the most potential for value... like look if you sold points on Atlanta, KC etc. takes a lot of skill but it can be a super strat

@7272

 Wow I didn't even know thats penalized now

@Buffalobob89074

 I never knew him buffet when was that?

@justliketoplay

 I'm just curious and the more the merrier ;) I prefer a livelier forum. But as for St2ee the only person who competes with his moon plays is don juan on superbowl

@dubz4dummyz

 Ah interesting thanks guess it wasn't showing cause I didnt refresh then

No edit button I can understand kinda for a forum like this to try to prevent any deception (although people would catch on and call it out anyway so I dont see the point) but no preview button are you kidding me? This forum always had both of those things in the past