NinjaNight

@Lucky Luciano

 Jets tend to barely cover these huge lines

@pattomlinson

 sid? From toy story?

Interesting got that classic 67% winrate on both spreads and props thats hard to break out of to do better consistently with volume

@football_007

 oh thanks lol I didn't see a spammer must've been deleted

This is confusing this week this one collapses like the rest did last week after constantly working for the first three weeks, and now this week the one that went 3-10 last week is absolutely shredding it this week with almost every pick correct. Back to the drawing board figure out whats happening and how to make sure the models continue to work every week

@meatwhistle

 Oh I wasn't aware someone forced you to click my thread

Okay the system that has gone 72%, 74%, and 69% the last 3 weeks (mostly unposted just testing behind the scenes) has been on a roll since we started posting on MNF it took Phi +1 win over GB and TNF it took a super dangerous NYJ +13.5 over NE which won by half a point, as we said there was expected to be a huge nail biter could've gone either way.

Just to be safe I'll wait and make sure the model is still working this week on the 12 pm games before I post the later games that it took, because last week the other 2 models suddenly collapsed with 3 variants going slightly worse than 50% and 2 variants going something like 3-10 and 5-8 if I remember correctly. The 6th variant is what I referenced in the first paragraph above which has never stopped working so far, but since all the others stopped working last week I need to make sure this one keeps working this week by testing on the noon games... Actually I guess I may as well post the noon picks anyway but if it goes south I WARNED YOU the other models collapsed last week so my intent is just to test if its working this week on the noon games before betting the later games/MNF I've never seen a model that was working on the noon games fail to work on the later games week to week yet. The picks are: NYG +7.5 (it can't know the disastrous QB situation take with grain of salt idk if it still works), Min -2.5, Ten +7, TB +6.5, Atl -3.5, LAC -3, Pit -5.5... then for the later games they are Sea +3, Ari +3, Bal -7.5, KC -4, Det +2.5, LV +3.5. I think I read TB or Pit I forgot which has 2 injured cornerbacks out for this game? So that could be taken with a grain of salt too.

And in case anyone was gonna call me out on it yes I am posting this late at about 12:15 PM right now but the noon games weren't intended to be played anyway just reporting what the model says cause may as well, originally I wasn't gonna post until the later games and only if the noon games worked but I thought I may as well with a warning. I don't even know what the live scores are right now honestly I haven't checked and since when do early game scores predict full game reliably anyway :P.

@Peezy9166

 Basically a specific method/way of using data to arrive at a prediction rather than using your own mind to evaluate

@artuk99

 you posted this 13 hrs ago when I encounter it "13 is my lucky number"

@LineLord

 TNF is always weird this is why I would almost never feel good about laying huge points on TNF

@LineLord

 Also could have had Patriots -12.5 if you were on them, winner... its amazing those who snatched Patriots -12.5 and those who took Jets +13.5 all won

NYJ +13.5 

As I said extremely scary play no surprises here... that makes it 6-0 clean sweep since last week on these types of plays now

Last week could've gone 100% ATS with it if I eliminated the plays I thought were very sketchy like Cle -2 @ NYJ, Buf -8 @ Mia, Ari +7 instead of blind following

Regardless all by itself if it continues the way its been going it'll be even much better than the 75% ATS 2018 system because of higher volume, the 2018 depended on narrowing down a lot to the best plays to get that high, this one has been averaging 70s% so far playing every single game of every week

@Luckybastard1

 Ah indeed I didn't check the weather I just read that yesterday or something it was 38 degrees in New England so I thought it'd be the same or worse

Alright here we go, I've only been working on system plays this season so this isn't my own personal play.

Extremely scary play tonight 

However the reason I'm posting it is in my MNF Eagles @ Green Bay thread it chose Eagles +1 perfectly and as I said in that thread last weekend it was also on LV +8.5 54.3%, Phi +1 52.2%, LAC -2.5 55.4%, NO +5.5 51.1%, NYG +4.5 51.0%

That's a clean 5-0 sweep for low probability plays, with this system it seems the number doesn't matter just which side the number points to. If anything its been looking like lower probability is ironically better somehow but unproven yet.

As I said monday I've been working for over a month on 3 different systems with 2 variants each so 6 different variants (theres also tuning I can do on the variants) 5 variants stopped working last week that were shredding weeks 8 & 9 in live testing but fizzled out in week 10 live testing (not backtest but indeed still pregame bets) 3 of the variants went a flat 50% winrate ATS on all games 1 went 3-9 one went 5-7.... and the last one that I present to you today (and same one we used to pick Phi +1 winner monday) went 9-4-1 actually just realized I didn't update the former records for MNF all the other variants except this 9-4-1 variant chose Green Bay so one extra lost to all of those other records so the 3 50% ATS variants were actually a bit worse in the end and then 3-10 and 5-8

That means the 5 other variants likely don't keep working strongly long term but this one has gone something like 72%, 74%, 69% over weeks 8, 9, 10 respectively and is likely to keep working. It's somewhat expected too cause this system was supposed to be the most robust and reliable.

Anyhow the play is NYJ +13.5 

What I don't like about it: Linelord POY on NE -13 and he's been on fire, all the experts on NE -13 as well, Jets struggling QB (gonna be cold too) and offense against good NE defense how are they gonna put up points? Or will it turn into another 10-7 type slugfest?, NE is the team with the MVP candidate QB vs the bad QB YIKES

What I like about it: TNF factor may screw up everyone's analysis throwing off NE's rhythm on a short week lack of preparation and historically huge home favorites on TNF are the worst spot to be in on TNF for covering ATS... will cold weather have an effect and help keep it low scoring on both sides? Maybe I don't know... NE also only has a middling DVOA somehow despite a top record, I don't know if its cause they don't pile on a ton of yardage per play or what maybe helps have a slow paced low scoring game in a divisional rivalry on a short week?!

Let's hope for a magical trio of 10-7s last TNF, this MNF, and then this TNF tonight where Jets EASILY cover (imagine the odds on that if you could bet on 3 TNF/MNF primetime 10-7s in a row and the disbelief the oddsmakers would be in if you bet much on it and it landed) hey Raiders were a bad team vs a top team on TNF last week they did it, why not Jets in a divisional rivalry? ;P

Moral of the story is always bet on Tom Brady, pizzaman wise man

@D-Town

 Cheers, lets shred rest of the season! Watch out if this goes as expected its gonna be extremely hard to beat

@Wizerguy

 Yea that makes sense the first 2 or 3 weeks in particular seemed pretty chaotic this year I'm guessing thats normal every season... I've never been around for the first half of a season I always join too late  and most years I haven't been following anything but chess and tennis so I don't have much testing/experience to see what a first half of season would go like. The only time I joined in on an NFL season and seriously tried to solve it was 2018 and wasn't ready until week 9 or later I guess, now I plan to be back every year

I imagine teams start stabilizing toward their true performance later in season... Anyway GL to you too! I remember reading your threads back then or maybe even in 2015 when I wasn't posting or something doing quite well

@ttangel

 Hope you cashed in :) birds superfecta is complete! I think im breaking out madden 2004 song starting right now lol... hoping to break out with 75% ATS again starting now rest of season I've been working hard on this. Did it in 2nd half of 2018 do it again... wow vid ended on that song too 

Sorry for the inactivity haven't been having any time to post constantly refining the NFL system making sure its working etc. and also trying to figure out other sports NBA, NHL, tennis etc. 

Whats been happening behind the scenes is I've been live testing it (not backtesting in hindsight) the system I use on weeks 8 thru 10, testing six variants of the system and until yesterday all of them were tearing it up like 72-76% ATS per week each one but suddenly this week 5 out of 6 of them collapsed (3 went exactly 50% on all games and 1 went like 3-9 and other went 5-7).

The last man standing the one that did not collapse continues to go as strong as ever telling us thats our most robust system... It's 8-4-1 so far (push on Atl vs Ind).

So I thought I'd share that system's pick for tonight which is Eagles spread +1; Phi +1

Last week system won on Cardinals, Ravens, and Seahawks (all birds) all dominated I thought that was neat so let's hope it continues with a birds superfecta

It doesn't see it as strong lean 52.2% probability but it nailed Chargers -2.5 at 55.4% last night... it also had Giants 51% which covered by half a point and Saints 51.1% which easily covered...

Interesting writeups does your name have anything to do with age of mythology?