Aardvark week 10 picks

Week 8 (3-1)
Week 9 (0-0)

ARZ @ SEA: SEA -6.5, Over 44.5
LAR @ SF: LAR -4.5
PIT @ LAC: Over 44.5

ARZ @ SEA: ARZ offense the last 3 games since Brissett took over has looked completely different, avg 26 pts/game (including against IND/GB), with passing +86 yds/game increase. I do think that they will be able to put up points against SEA defense but will have some issues: the offensive line is pone to giving up sacks (11 last 2 games) and Brissett has a higher pressure % compared to other QBs. They don't run the ball particularly well (3.7 YPC last 3 games), and SEA defense has been very good against the run (3.5 YPC). While SEA defense has been very good (3rd overall in points allowed, 4th in sacks, high pressure rate), they have not played a good offense with the exception of TB, who put 38 on them in SEA. Outside of TB, the next best offense is PIT, who is ranked 15th in points scored. SEA offense is on a heater, avg 29 pts/game. They do not run the ball particularly well (3.7 YPC), it'll be interesting to see if the addition of Shaheed creates some breathing room. ARZ defensive line is not a strength, while SEA has only given up 9 sacks on the year. A big factor is ARZ will be without 3 starters: leading tackler LB Wilson, CB Johnson (best corner), and CB Melton. I don't see how the ARX defense slows them down. SEA 30, ARZ 20.

LAR @ SF: SF offense I am not convinced will have enough to keep up with LAR. They do not run the ball well (2 games avg over 4 YPC and over 100+ yards), and against good defenses (HOU, TB, SEA, ARZ) were held to 20 points or less. They do a good job of not giving up sacks, which they'll need as LAR is 4th with 27 sacks and generate a ton of pressure. The LAR defense worst game was ironically against SF on Thurs night, but I do not see the same thing happening this week. LAR offense is arguably one of the best in the league, and Stafford has been on fire with a 21/2 TD/INT ratio. SF defense does not generate sacks (30th in the league) or a lot of pressure. They are banged up as well, with 2 questionable tags on the DL and 2 questionable tags at LB. Do not like road divisional favorites, but don't think SF keeps up with LAR. LAR 27, SF 17.

PIT @ LAC: PIT offense is a bit of an enigma- they don't run the ball well (3.8 YPC), Rogers hasn't thrown for more than 250 yards all year, but they average 25 pts/game as a team. Lowest points scored was 17 to SEA in week 2, every other game 21+ (including against CLV, GB, NE). LAC defense has given up points to not good offenses (MIA/WAS 27 each). LAC secondary has been pretty good this year, with IND only team with over 250+ yards and QB rating over 100+, but I think PIT will find a way to put up 21-24 points. LAC offense has looked good the last 4 games, avg 29 pts/game vs first 5 games at 20 pts/game. There is some concern with the blocking, as T Hart will be out and the loss of Alt earlier in the season has seen Herbert be pressured over 40% the last 3 games and have given up 11 sacks. PIT defense can get to the QB (4th in the league in sacks), but believe Herbert is mobile enough, and the WR/TE are skilled enough to where it won't be a catastrophic issue. PIT defense held NE to 14 points and IND to 20 points, but needed 5 and 6 turnovers to do that. I don't believe they'll generate that type of game. The other 5 games they've played (aside from CLV), they've given up 30 points per game. I don't see either team really running the ball well and see this as being won through the air. LAC get's 24-27 points.

BOL  Enjoyed the writeups and in agreement. 

Pretty good write up. Thanks 

Good luck AP.  

AP 

Interesting writeups does your name have anything to do with age of mythology?

@NinjaNight

 I doesn't- although reading about aardvarks and some of the mythology behind them, it works!